著者

SAITO Kazuo KUNII Masaru ARAKI Kentaro

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-027, (Released:2018-02-11)

被引用文献数

10

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Local heavy rainfall of about 100 mm h-1 occurred in Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture on 26 August 2011. This rain was brought by a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that developed near a stationary front that slowly moved southward. In an analysis using geostationary multi-purpose satellite rapid scan images and dense automated weather station networks, development of the MCS occurred after the merging of sea breezes from the east (Kashima-nada) and the south (Tokyo Bay). Numerical experiments by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nonhydrostatic model (NHM) with horizontal resolutions of 10 km and 2 km using mesoscale 4D-VAR analysis of JMA for initial conditions tended to predict the position of intense rainfall areas west of observed positions. In the mesoscale ensemble forecast using perturbations from JMA’s one-week global ensemble prediction system (EPS) forecast, some ensemble members showed enhanced precipitation around Tokyo, but false precipitation areas appeared north of the Kanto and Hokuriku Districts. As an attempt to improve the model forecast, we modified the model, reducing the lower limit of subgrid deviation of water vapor condensation to diagnose the cloudiness for radiation. In the modified model simulation, surface temperatures around Tokyo increased by about 1°C and the position of the intense precipitation was improved, but the false precipitation areas in the Hokuriku District were also enhanced in the ensemble member which brought a better forecast than the control run. We also conducted ensemble prediction using a singular vector method based on NHM. One of the ensemble members unstabilized the lower atmosphere on the windward side of the Kanto District and suppressed the false precipitation in the Hokuriku District, and observed characteristics of the local heavy rainfall were well reproduced by NHM with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. A conceptual model of the initiation of deep convection by the formation of a low-level convergence zone succeeding merging of the two sea breezes from the east and south is proposed based on observations, previous studies, and numerical simulation results. In this event, the northerly ambient wind played an important role on the occurrence of the local heavy rainfall around Tokyo by suppressing the northward intrusion of the sea breeze from the south.

著者

YANASE Wataru ARAKI Kentaro WADA Akiyoshi SHIMADA Udai HAYASHI Masahiro HORINOUCHI Takeshi

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-041, (Released:2022-06-30)

被引用文献数

5

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Torrential rain in Typhoon Hagibis caused a devastating disaster in Japan in October 2019. The precipitation was concentrated in the northern half of Hagibis during extratropical transition (ET). To elucidate the mechanisms of this asymmetric precipitation, synoptic- and meso-scale processes were analyzed mainly using the Japan Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model. The present study demonstrates that the asymmetric processes were different depending on the ET stages. When Hagibis was close to the baroclinic zone at middle latitudes around 12 October (the frontal stage), heavy precipitation in the northeastern part of Hagibis was attributed to warm frontogenesis and a quasi-geostrophic ascent, as reported in many previous studies. In contrast, when Hagibis was moderately distant from the baroclinic zone around 11 October (the prefrontal stage), heavy precipitation in the northern part occurred in slantwise northward ascending motion in the outer region. This slantwise motion developed in a region with strong westerly vertical shear, which was enhanced between Hagibis and a westerly jet stream. Based on the analyses of potential vorticity and absolute angular momentum, this region was characterized by reduced moist symmetric stability in the lower and middle troposphere accompanied by inertial instability in the upper troposphere and conditional instability in the lower troposphere. These results provide additional insights into the time evolution of asymmetric processes during ET in the absence of a distinct upper-tropospheric trough, particularly the slantwise motion in the prefrontal stage.