著者
青野 靖之 小元 敬男
出版者
The Society of Agricultural Meteorology of Japan
雑誌
農業気象 (ISSN:00218588)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.49, no.4, pp.263-272, 1994-03-10 (Released:2010-02-25)
参考文献数
29
被引用文献数
11 11

The change of the monthly mean temperature for March since the 11th century is estimated from the records of cherry blossom in old documents. The dates given as cherry blossom festivals in old diaries and chronicles are assumed as full flowering dates of Prunus jamasakura, one of the native cherry tree species of Japan. The temperatures are estimated by means of DTS method, which has been used to estimate flowering date from temperature data. It is shown that computations for the recent 40 years proved that the decadal average values of the March temperature may be obtained by the method for P. jamasakura with the accuracy of 0.1°C of the root mean square error.It is shown that the entire study period can be roughly divided into three subsections. In the first period (the 11-13th centuries), the March appeared to be generally very warm compared with other periods, however, accuracy of the estimated values are rather poor because decadal averages are computed from relatively small number of years due to missing of records.For the second period (the 14-16th centuries), there was a period of warming of 2°C from 1470's to 1610's, otherwise the decadal averages suggest large fluctuations, at least partly attributed to poor quality of full flowering data of P. jamasakura.For the third period (the 17-20th centuries), temperatures generally tend to be estimated in low values, especially estimations in 1690-1710's and 1810-30's continued to the present is noticeable. The rise amounts to 3.4°C seems due both to urban warming and larger scale warming over the central Japan roughly the same degree.

言及状況

外部データベース (DOI)

Twitter (6 users, 7 posts, 1 favorites)

@YUKI_Nbot https://t.co/fnH0xUqCa9 古記録の資料は少ないものの、西暦1200年を中心とする百年はかなり温暖であったと考えられるということです。ところが、肝心の1000年以前はというと、まったくお手上げの状態です。
http://t.co/vJHoM8w0yV サクラの開花史料による11世紀以降の京都の気温の推定
「西行法師が、自作の有名な歌の通り"桜の下にて""如月の望月のころ"亡くなったのは事実なのか?」「太陰暦とはいえ、2月に桜が満開になるのか?」という疑問も、こういう記録のおかげで解決されるわけ(_・ω・)_ https://t.co/3nJT7h2OEu
「○月○日お花見行った♪」という日記等の記録千年分から過去の桜の開花日が分かり、それで京都の局地的気温の変化が分かるという研究がある。何が役に立つかはわからぬ。 https://t.co/JUdgBdFc91 @hondajapan8s これ歴史的価値とかないんかな(たぶんない)

収集済み URL リスト