著者

Hiroki Nakano Kazunori Omote Toshiyuki Nagai Michikazu Nakai Kunihiro Nishimura Yasuyuki Honda Satoshi Honda Naotsugu Iwakami Yasuo Sugano Yasuhide Asaumi Takeshi Aiba Teruo Noguchi Kengo Kusano Hiroyuki Yokoyama Satoshi Yasuda Hisao Ogawa Taishiro Chikamori Toshihisa Anzai on behalf of the NaDEF Investigators

出版者

The Japanese Circulation Society

雑誌

Circulation Journal (ISSN:13469843)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.83, no.3, pp.614-621, 2019-02-25 (Released:2019-02-25)

参考文献数

36

被引用文献数

2 6

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Background: The ideal mortality prediction model (MPM) for acute heart failure (AHF) patients would have sufficient and stable predictive ability for long-term as well as short-term mortality. However, published MPMs for AHF predominantly predict short-term mortality up to 90 days, and their prognostic performance for long-term mortality remains unclear. Methods and Results: We analyzed 609 AHF patients in a prospective registry from January 2013 to May 2016. We compared the prognostic performance for long-term mortality among 8 systematically identified MPMs for AHF that predict short-term mortality up to 90 days from admission. The PROTECT 7-day model showed the highest c-index for long-term as well as short-term mortality among the studied MPMs. Sensitivity analyses revealed serum albumin and total cholesterol to be the most important variables, as dropping these variables resulted in a significant decline in c-index, when compared with other variables specific to the PROTECT 7-day model. Furthermore, significant improvements in c-index and net reclassification were observed when serum albumin or serum albumin plus total cholesterol was added to the studied MPMs, other than the PROTECT 7-day model. Conclusions: The PROTECT 7-day model demonstrated the highest predictive performance for long-term as well as short-term mortality in AHF patients among the published MPMs. Our findings indicate the importance of accounting for nutritional status such as serum albumin and total cholesterol in AHF patients when developing a MPM.