著者

Shizukiyo Ishikawa Masatoshi Matsumoto Kazunori Kayaba Tadao Gotoh Naoki Nago Akizumi Tsutsumi Eiji Kajii the Jichi Medical School (JMS) Cohort Study Group

出版者

日本疫学会

雑誌

Journal of Epidemiology (ISSN:09175040)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, no.2, pp.101-106, 2009-03-05 (Released:2009-03-19)

参考文献数

36

被引用文献数

7 18

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Background: Risk charts are used to estimate the risk of cardiovascular diseases; however, most have been developed in Western countries. In Japan, currently available risk charts are based on mortality data. Using data on cardiovascular disease incidence from the JMS Cohort Study, we developed charts that illustrated the risk of stroke.Methods and Results: The JMS Cohort Study is a community-based cohort study of cardiovascular disease. Baseline data were obtained between 1992 and 1995. In the present analysis, the participants were 12 276 subjects without a history of stroke; the follow-up period was 10.7 years. Color-coded risk charts were created by using Cox’s proportional hazards models to calculate 10-year absolute risks associated with sex, age, smoking status, diabetes status, and systolic blood pressure. The risks of stroke and cerebral infarction rose as age and systolic blood pressure increased. Although the risk of cerebral hemorrhage were generally lower than that of cerebral infarction, the patterns of association with risk factors were similar.Conclusion: These risk charts should prove useful for clinicians and other health professionals who are required to estimate an individual’s risk for stroke.