著者
横田 賀英子 渡邉 和美 和智 妙子 大塚 祐輔 倉石 宏樹 藤田 悟郎
出版者
公益社団法人 日本心理学会
雑誌
心理学研究 (ISSN:00215236)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.86, no.3, pp.209-218, 2015 (Released:2015-08-25)
参考文献数
37
被引用文献数
7 1

The purpose of this study was twofold: first, to create an index for a behavioral linkage analysis of serial sex crimes, and second, to construct a predictive model for the analysis. Data on 720 sex crimes (rape, indecent assault) committed by 360 offenders arrested between 1993 and 2005 throughout Japan were collected. The following seven behaviors were examined during a series of analyses aimed at illustrating the effectiveness of crime linkage in serial sex crimes: victim age group, area type, publicness of offense site, weapon, time, contact method, and day of the week. The results indicated that six of the seven behaviors (excluding “day of the week”) significantly distinguished between linked and unlinked crime pairs. Under a logistic regression of these six variables, which were dichotomously coded in terms of the concordance or discordance between each pair of incidents, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.82–0.87), indicating a high level of discriminative accuracy in identifying disparate sex crimes committed by the same person.

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外部データベース (DOI)

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連続性犯罪の事件リンク分析/ やっぱロリコンっているんだーって思った。統計を算出するための要素である犯行行動の分類がかなり厳密にされてて綺麗。ただ、人間の行動をデータ化するにはやっぱり誤差はつきものだなと感じた。データの洗練自体人… https://t.co/rhMSG2ClG6
連続性犯罪の事件リンク分析 https://t.co/6l43YEh9Z7 (引用部は上記より)

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