著者
尾羽 秀晃 遠藤 聖也 松尾 雄司 玄海 亨 長尾 吉輝
出版者
一般社団法人 エネルギー・資源学会
雑誌
エネルギー・資源学会論文誌 (ISSN:24330531)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.43, no.4, pp.162-171, 2022-07-10 (Released:2022-07-10)
参考文献数
32

Increasing variable renewable energies with zero marginal cost cause the decline of wholesale electricity prices and undermine their own value by “cannibalization effect”. While capital costs of renewable energies are expected to decline, their income is also to decrease because of declined wholesale electricity prices. This study integrated GIS (geographic information system) model that assesses business feasibility into an optimal power generation mix model that assess wholesale electricity prices. By developing an integrated model, it is possible to assess potential installation capacity of solar and wind energy by considering both economic rationality and land use restrictions. In the case of Japan, this study revealed that increasing solar and wind energies cause the significant decline of wholesale electricity prices in specific electric network area such as Hokkaido. Even if capital costs of these energies decrease through learning effect, economic potential of installed renewable capacities is significantly limited if business feasibility is considered. Thus, the decline of electricity prices by cannibalization effect can seriously stagnate installation of both solar and wind energies. This study implies that further cost reduction faster than previous trend is needed to realize “subsidy-free” energy sources when cannibalization effect is considered.

言及状況

外部データベース (DOI)

Twitter (8 users, 8 posts, 9 favorites)

@re_procon 再エネの共食い効果って、ググっても論文がちょろちょろって感じで、あまり話題になっていないんですかね? https://t.co/IIWTbAjpEV 横文字でかっこよく、再エネ・カニバリゼーションとか云わないと、流行んないですかね。 略して再エネカーニバル。
ちょっとご趣旨と違うかもしれません、、また既にご存じかもしれませんが、どうぞ https://t.co/v1wioCInvC https://t.co/HVSDy534vd
んん、洋上風力が14円/kWhで経済合理性が得られない……となると某公募の某商事くらいに低廉化されないといけないってことですかしらね…。 https://t.co/gkiiiMwXdK
共食い効果を考慮した太陽光・風力発電の導入評価モデルhttps://t.co/eRCzmSb2co 火力、原子力の設備容量想定が分からないけど火力についても経済合理性を満たす設備容量とした場合、火力の設備容量が減って市場価格高騰→再エネ価値が高まるということもありそう。

収集済み URL リスト