著者
KAWABATA Yasuhiro YAMAGUCHI Munehiko
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-042, (Released:2020-05-18)

The effectiveness of the probability ellipse for tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts is investigated with multiple ensembles from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the Met Office in the United Kingdom. All TCs during the 3 years from 2016 to 2018 are included in the verification. We show that the multiple ensembles composed of these four global ensembles are capable of predicting the situation-dependent uncertainties of TC track forecasts appropriately in both the along-track and cross-track directions. The use of a probability circle involves the implicit assumption of an isotropic error distribution, whereas the introduction of the probability ellipse makes it possible to provide information as to which is more uncertain; the direction or the speed of TC movement. Compared to the probability circle adopted operationally at JMA, the probability ellipse can potentially reduce the area by 16, 15, and 24 %, on average, at forecast times of 3, 4, and 5 days, respectively. This indicates that narrowing warning areas of TC track forecasts by the probability ellipse enables us to enhance disaster prevention/mitigation measures.

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A new graphical abstract! https://t.co/D2r0o0wKbS Kawabata, Y., and M. Yamaguchi, 2020: Probability ellipse for tropical cyclone track forecasts with multiple ensembles. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, https://t.co/aUmNnuwS46. https://t.co/q14NLB2gad

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