著者
Hideo Shiogama Rui Ito Yukiko Imada Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Nagio Hirota Noriko N. Ishizaki Kiyoshi Takahashi Izuru Takayabu Seita Emori
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.16, pp.75-79, 2020 (Released:2020-05-01)
参考文献数
22

The ensemble average projections of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble show future increases in shortwave radiation at the surface (SW) in Japan. We reveal that the Arctic Oscillation-like atmospheric circulation trends cause cloud cover decreases around Japan, leading to increases in the SW.In many cases, impact assessment studies use the outputs of only a few models due to limited research resources. We find that the four climate models used in the Japanese multisector impact assessment project, S-8, do not sufficiently capture the uncertainty ranges of the CMIP5 ensemble regarding the SW projections. Therefore, the impact assessments using the SW of these four models can be biased. We develop a novel method to select a better subset of models that are more widely distributed and are not biased, unlike the S-8 models.

言及状況

外部データベース (DOI)

Twitter (6 users, 6 posts, 1 favorites)

We developed a novel method to select a subset of climate models for climate change impact assessment in Japan. The models selected are well distributed and not biased within their uncertainty range. #ClimateChange https://t.co/eiVMwaHV0P https://t.co/NJtyuymSaV
Sola new paper: Shiogama et al., Selecting Future Climate Projections of Surface Solar Radiation in Japan, SOLA, 2020, VOL.16, 75-79, doi:10.2151/sola.2020-013, https://t.co/pN8WzHXpoP https://t.co/BziPmJiwxW

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