著者
Sachie Kanada Kazuhisa Tsuboki Izuru Takayabu
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-010, (Released:2020-03-03)

To understand the impacts of global warming on tropical cyclones (TCs) in midlatitude regions, dynamical downscaling experiments were performed using a 4-km-mesh regional model with a one-dimensional slab ocean model. Around 100 downscaling experiments for midlatitude TCs that traveled over the sea east of Japan were forced by large-ensemble climate change simulations of both current and warming climates. Mean central pressure and radius of maximum wind speed of simulated current-climate TCs increased as the TCs moved northward into a baroclinic environment with decreasing sea surface temperature (SST). In the warming-climate simulations, the mean central pressure of TCs in the analysis regions decreased from 958 hPa to 948 hPa: 12% of the warming-climate TCs were of an unusual central pressure lower than 925 hPa. In the warming climate, atmospheric conditions were strongly stabilized, however, the warming-climate TCs could develope, because the storms developed taller and stronger eyewall updrafts owing to higher SSTs and larger amounts of near-surface water vapor. When mean SST and near-surface water vapor were significantly higher and baroclinicity was significantly smaller, unusual intense TCs with extreme wind speeds and large amounts of precipitation around a small eye, could develop in midlatitude regions, retaining the axisymetric TC structures.

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外部データベース (DOI)

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Future changes in mid-latitude tropical cyclones when downscaled to 4km - would love to see this for the Atlantic a… https://t.co/UWQ5eUGCHB
SOLA Early Online Release: Kanada et al., Future Changes of Tropical Cyclones in the Midlatitudes in 4-km-mesh Down… https://t.co/2jIOdXU6VF

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