著者
Michiya Hayashi Hideo Shiogama
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2022-016, (Released:2022-03-28)

The technique for composing a small subset of global climate models is critical to provide climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies of regional climate changes. A recent study developed a novel statistical method for selecting a mini-ensemble of five climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 for widely capturing different future projections of Japanese climate across eight atmospheric variables at the surface. However, it remains unclear which mini-ensemble model contributes to efficiently covering the full projection ranges. Here, we rank each mini-ensemble projection around Japan among a full ensemble, showing that the selected five models capture the full ranges without systematic biases, except for relative humidity. Furthermore, we find that the widespread global warming level contributes to covering well the projection uncertainties in the daily-mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures and downward longwave radiation but not in precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, or wind speed. As the last four variables are sensitive to various factors, such as large-scale circulation and aerosol-forcing changes, rather than global-mean temperature changes, the model selection method featured here is preferable for capturing the wide future projection ranges in Japan.

言及状況

外部データベース (DOI)

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We ranked mini-ensemble projections around Japan among a full CMIP6 GCM ensemble and showed that the selected five models captured the full ranges without systematic biases, except for relative humidity. #ClimateChange https://t.co/Z6vPux22QJ https://t.co/sWDrMKL9T8
Article info: Hayashi, M., and H. Shiogama, 2022: Assessment of CMIP6-based future climate projections selected for impact studies in Japan. SOLA, 18, 96−103, doi:10.2151/sola.2022-016. https://t.co/BVVsrxA9dx
Sola early online release: Hayashi and Shiogama, Assessment of CMIP6-based future climate projections selected for impact studies in Japan, SOLA, 2022, doi:10.2151/sola.2022-016, https://t.co/fjgHSWOhM7
論文でました!まだ早期公開資料ですが無料で見れます。 日本での気候変動影響評価・適応政策の研究に今後使われるデータセットの元となる5つの気候モデルの特性を調べました。 Assessment of CMIP6-based future climate projections selected for impact studies in Japan https://t.co/BVVsrxhZZp

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