著者
Tomohiro YAMAGUCHI Makoto YOSHIKAWA
出版者
THE JAPAN SOCIETY FOR AERONAUTICAL AND SPACE SCIENCES
雑誌
TRANSACTIONS OF THE JAPAN SOCIETY FOR AERONAUTICAL AND SPACE SCIENCES, SPACE TECHNOLOGY JAPAN (ISSN:13473840)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.7, no.ists26, pp.Pk_11-Pk_15, 2009 (Released:2010-05-08)

In this paper, the estimation method of impact probability for Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) is investigated. The impact probability of NEOs has been calculated by a linear target plane analysis and a Monte-Carlo method. Since the collisions of NEOs with the Earth are quite sensitive problems, the calculations have to be confirmed by everal methods. A linear target plane analysis cannot be applied if the position uncertainty is too large since the uncertainty ellipsoid is not a good assumption in this case. A Monte-Carlo method can be used for a large position uncertainty, but the computational cost is high. The limitation of using a linear target plane analysis is investigated using the Monte-Carlo method for the close approach of 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4). The relation between impact probability and observation accuracy is investigated by analyzing the close approach of 2007WD5.

言及状況

外部データベース (DOI)

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@Eliza34060701 Die nominale "Lunar Distance" ist die wahrscheinliche. https://t.co/DXYS5vH3Vf

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