著者

鶴谷 亮人 TSURUYA Akito

出版者

法政大学大学院理工学・工学研究科

雑誌

法政大学大学院紀要 理工学・工学研究科編 (ISSN:21879923)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.55, 2014-03-24

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In this study, we consider a problem of finding factors results in penalty shootouts (abbreviated to PSO) of football games. We check up 143 official football games and after PSOs, the first kicking PSO teams are confirmed to have tendency win. London School of Economics and Political Science infer that first successes in PSO are main factor of wins in PSOs and they give pressures to the opponent teams. Our date reject above inference of LSE & PS. Therefore , we construct a simple stochastic model in which each PSO is independent with equal probability of success. We demonstrate algebraically that if the success rate of PSOs of the first kicking PSO team is higher than that of the opponent team, then firs kicking team wins. Furthermore, our date fit quite well to the demonstrated result. It is truth that our stochastic model explains to PSOs very well. However, because we cannot reject all of inference of LSE & PS, it is needs that further analysis of PSOs.