著者

宇津 徳治

出版者

東京大学地震研究所

雑誌

東京大学地震研究所彙報 (ISSN:00408972)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.59, no.1, pp.p53-66, 1984

被引用文献数

17

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Four renewal models have been applied to several seismic regions of Japan where large earthquakes occur repeatedly at fairly regular time intervals. The model parameters have been determined by the method of moments and the method of maximum likelihood. The four models represent the distributions of time intervals fairly well, though different models are best suited for different sets of data. The probability of the occurrence of the next large earthquake during a specified interval of time can be calculated easily for each model. Some sample results are presented.大地震が繰り返し発生している地域について,その時系列を表す簡単なモデルとして,時間間隔の分布が異る四種類の更新過程を取り上げ,それぞれについてパラメータの値を最尤法及びモーメント法により求めた.日本付近のいくつかの地域について調べた結果によれば四種類のモデルは多少違う結果を与えるが,大きな差はなく,どれか一つが特に良く適合するとはいえない.どのモデルによっても,前回の大地震からtだけ経過した時点からτという長さの期間に次の大地震が起こる確率は容易に計算できる.その計算結果の一部を掲げた.

著者

宇津 徳治

出版者

東京大学地震研究所

雑誌

東京大学地震研究所彙報 (ISSN:00408972)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.57, no.3, pp.p401-463, 1982

被引用文献数

22

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A catalog of earthquakes of magnitude 6 or more felt in Japan and smaller earthquakes which caused damage in Japan from 1885 through 1980 is presented. The catalog also contains unfelt earthquakes of M≧6 which occurred in the vicinity of Japan (region A indicated in the map), but the listing of unfelt earthquakes may be incomplete for the years before 1924. The catalog is incomplete for deep earthquakes before 1900. The main sources of materials are Utsu's catalog of 1979 (revised in 1982) for 1885-1925, the new JMA catalog (1982) for 1926-1960, and the JMA Seismological Bulletin for 1961-1980. Gutenberg-Richter's catalog (1954), ISS, or ISC Bulletins are used for focal coordinates of earthquakes occurring outside of the network of JMA stations. For some earthquakes the author has determined the focal coordinates or magnitudes. Statistical analyses of the catalog and studies of seismicity patterns in relation to the occurrence of great earthquakes will be published elsewhere.