著者

藤原 豊司

出版者

The European Union Studies Association-Japan

雑誌

日本EU学会年報 (ISSN:18843123)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2003, no.23, pp.121-139,299, 2003

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The EU is on the verge of revising, or at least making flexible the guiding principle of its unified currency. They are making, I'm afraid, a fatal error of judgement. The remarkable success, so far, of the euro was entirely due to the shift of macro-economic principles, from demand management to monetary targeting.<br>The guiding principle of the single currency, of which the most important is to contain budget deficit within 3% of the GDP, was certainly a kind of straight-jacket to many of the participating countries to the euro. The majority of the 12 participants, including such laggards as Ireland and Greece, managed to endure inflationary and other pressures, inflicted by the "one-size-fits-for-all" measures demanded by the stability and growth pact.<br>Ironically, it is Germany, France and Italy, the 3 largest and central countries of the euro zone, that are now crying for help. It is especially paradoxical that Germany, which has been demanding the strict application of the SGP principles, has now excessive budgetary deficit and is calling for flexibility in their applications.<br>As of the beginning of March, 2003, it is not decided yet whether the SGP should be revised or not, but judging from the report the Commission presented to the Ecofin Council, they are sure to make "flexible interpretations", if not revisions to the SGP. Are they right? I thnk not.<br>Ms. Kathleen McNamara, Assistant Professor at Princeton, produed a remarkable book on the euro, called "The Currency of Ideas" (1998). Based on the analysis of the world monetary history after the war, including the Bretton Woods system, she concluded that European monetary systems made a great success, because their guiding principles were shifted from Keynesian to Neoliberal theories. In European context, this meant that all the euro participants had virtually abandoned Keynesian demand management policies and converted to the monetarist approach, which the German Bundesbank had pursued since the end of the World War II.<br>World monetary authorities are now facing unprecedented pressures of world-wide deflation. It is understandable that European financial authorities are demanding flexibility in applying the SGP. But we must remind ourselves that in the colossalised economies, demand stimulus rarely works, as is shown by Japanese policies. Euro financial ministers should be patient.<br>Fortunately for the majority of euro-participants, the March Ecofin Council only produced a very short statement on the SPG that it "provides a robust and flexible framework within which any additional strains on public finances will be addressed". It was reported that Gordon Brown, British Chancellor of Exchequer, had tried to present a plan to make a flexible interpretation to the SGP, but Belgium, Spain, Italy and other small countries prevented the proposal, made in collaboration with France and Germany. The EU might have to endure some period of uncertainty over the euro. But it may turn out to be beneficial to the single currency after all.