著者

HOSOE Nobuhiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-14, 2016-08

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The impact of Brexit is investigated using two computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, featuring conventional constant-returns-to-scale (CRS) technology and increasing-returns-to-scale (IRS) technology with firm heterogeneity, à la Melitz. The imposition of trade barriers would trigger a significant contraction of the bilateral trade between the United Kingdom (UK) and the rest of the European Union (EU). While a CRS CGE model predicts that the trade barriers would benefit or only marginally harm the UK’s welfare, the IRS model predicts a larger loss through firm exit and loss of varieties, comparable to the expected saving of the UK’s contribution to the EU budget. Among the UK industries, the textiles and apparel, steel and metal, and automotive and transportation equipment sectors would suffer most severely from their sharp fall in exports.

著者

TAKAGI Shingo HOSOE Nobuhiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-18, 2019-09

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In this paper, we develop a structural auction model and quantify the effects of policy measures aiming to enhance competition in the Japanese retail power market. We employ a theoretical model that incorporates asymmetries between the incumbent and entrants in terms of both the cost and information structures, where the costs of the former are assumed common knowledge, and empirically estimate the structural parameters characterizing their cost distributions using public power procurement data. We then conduct counterfactual simulations to quantify two competition-promoting policy measures: a bid reference program for entrants, and an increase in the number of potential bidders. We take a parametric approach to estimate the structural model successfully in contrast to a nonparametric approach that previous studies took. Our simulation results show that these procompetitive measures would barely increase participation by potential entrants but would elicit more aggressive incumbent bidding behavior. Further, a modest bid-preferential rate would improve welfare and reduce the probability of realizing inefficient allocations associated with a costly winning bidder.

著者

RENTSCHLER Jun E. HOSOE Nobuhiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-05, 2017-07

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This study develops a computable general equilibrium model for Nigeria to study the impact of fossil fuel subsidy reform - and energy taxes - on key economic parameters, including consumption, income distribution, tax incidence, and fiscal efficiency. The model also examines the role of informality, tax evasion, and fuel smuggling, and shows that these factors can substantially strengthen the argument in favour of subsidy reform. The study shows that redistributing revenues from subsidy reform using uniform cash transfers has a strong progressive (i.e. pro-poor) distributional effect. Moreover, redistributing reform revenues by cutting pre-existing labour taxes not only increases fiscal effciency, but also reduces the welfare losses associated with tax evasion, which in turn reduces the welfare costs of reform by up to 40%. Regardless of the method of revenue redistribution, reducing subsidies diminishes the incentives for fuel smuggling, and hence the welfare losses associated with it.

著者

HOSOE Nobuhiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-04, 2017-06

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We investigate the impact of Brexit (the UK’s planned withdrawal from the European Union) using computable general equilibrium models featuring conventional constant returns-to-scale (CRS) and increasing returns-to-scale (IRS) technology and firm heterogeneity, à la Melitz. We show that the imposition of the tariff and nontariff barriers associated with Brexit triggers the significant contraction of bilateral trade between the UK and the remaining 27 members of the European Union (EU27), exacerbated by firm exit from export markets. Given the imposition of these trade barriers, budget savings, migrants returning to the EU27 from the UK, and intra-EU27 integration and free trade agreements with the US and Japan, the IRS model predicts a total export loss of 5.1–5.8% of UK GDP and a total welfare loss of 1.1–1.5%. This is 60% greater than the CRS model predictions. However, the impact on output would vary between industries, whereby the UK chemical and automobile industries would contract, but its food, business services, and information and communication technology industries would expand. In contrast, the EU27 would gain substantially from other integration programs, but lose very little from the stronger UK–EU27 border barriers. This suggests that the EU27 should have little interest in negotiations aimed at avoiding a “hard Brexit” (the surrendering by the UK of full access to the single market) and that it would be more productive for it to focus on integration programs with trade partners other than the UK.

著者

HOSOE Nobuhiro AKUNE Yuko

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-06, 2019-07

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Manufacturing industries have attracted research attention regarding roles of firm heterogeneity and product differentiation in the “ new new trade theory.” Agricultural sectors also produce new goods by product differentiation through breeding, food processing, quality-upgrading, and branding. In reaction to the recent globalization, the Japanese government has sought strategies to promote its domestic agri-food sectors by means of product differentiation and export promotion. This computable general equilibrium study examines the relevance of these policies by simulating hypothetical trade liberalization in agriculture and/or food. We show that agricultural trade liberalization would not increase Japan’ s agricultural exports but would increase food exports; and that food trade liberalization would promote food exports. Both types of liberalization would increase domestic production in agri-food sectors through agri-food linkages and variety effects. This finding affords evidence of the relevance of product differentiation strategy through food processing and exportation, but not of agricultural export promotion strategy.

著者

HOSSAIN Sharif M. HOSOE Nobuhiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-10, 2017-10

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Bangladesh, being a labor-abundant country, benefits from foreign direct investment (FDI) as it is considered as a supplement to domestic investment for this capital-scarce economy. We examine how the benefits of increased FDI in the ready-made garments (RMG) sector are transmitted and shared among households with different characteristics, and the appropriate government policies to mitigate adverse distributional problems, if any, created from the increased FDI. To address these issues, we develop a computable general equilibrium model for Bangladesh that describes competition between local firms and multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the RMG sector and the distributional impacts of FDI among households. Our simulation results demonstrate that an increase in FDI promotes both output and exports in the RMG sector. However, because of the competition between MNEs and domestic firms, the output of domestic firms would fall slightly. Scrutinizing the welfare effects among household groups, we find that the benefits of FDI-induced growth would affect all household groups unevenly. We also demonstrate that the benefits could be shared equitably among household groups with skill development programs targeted at the adversely affected household groups.

著者

SY Deborah Kim HOSOE Nobuhiro 政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.22-08, 2022-06

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Minimum wage is used as a support for low-wage workers, but it is expected to increase unemployment and cause deterioration of the welfare of the unemployed. While earlier studies identify negative side effects of minimum wage, that may not be the case in the Philippines, where many workers migrate and send home large remittances. This study uses a computable general equilibrium model to examine the impacts of an increase in the domestic minimum wage on unemployment, migration, and output, as well as on welfare and inequality, in the Philippines. Our simulation results show that a minimum wage increase would indeed reduce domestic labor demand and prompt many unemployed workers to migrate out, leaving relatively few unemployed at home. While an increased volume of remittances would improve household welfare, it would also have some unintended effects, such as currency appreciation; decreased domestic production in labor-intensive and export-oriented industries; greater income disparity; and tax base erosion.

著者

OGAWA Yoshitomo HOSOE Nobuhiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18-06, 2018-08

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Given that tariffs continue to serve as a primary source of government revenue in many developing countries, we analyze the optimal indirect tax problem, consisting of commodity taxes and tariffs, under a revenue constraint. This study derives the revenue-constrained optimal commodity taxes and tariffs in both a small and a large country and then examines their structure and properties. We show that the optimal commodity tax structure follows the Ramsey rule regardless of whether a country is small or large, which implies that the same optimal commodity tax rules are applied across a range of situations. We also show that the optimal tariffs are not zero, but negative, even in the small country case, which implies stronger support for the World Bank’s recommendation of tariff reductions for a country facing a revenue constraint. In addition, this study analyzes the optimal commodity taxation when tariffs cannot be fully adjusted. Numerical examples demonstrate some of our major findings and the welfare gain of the optimal taxation for a few developing countries.

著者

HUANG Michael C. HOSOE Nobuhiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-01, 2015-04

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We investigate a long-run impact of a compound disaster in northern Taiwan by describing a recovery process from the disaster with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. After simulating losses of capital and labor in combination with a nuclear power shutdown, we conduct policy experiments that are aimed at recovery of Taiwan’s major industries by subsidizing their output or capital use. We found that the semiconductor industry could recover but need a huge amount of subsidies while the electronic equipment sector could almost recover even without subsidies. Capital-use subsidies would cost less than output subsidies. When we use two-year longer duration for a recovery program of semiconductors, we could save the subsidy costs by 7–10%.