- Information Processing Society of Japan
- Journal of Information Processing (ISSN:18826652)
- vol.28, pp.650-657, 2020 (Released:2020-09-15)
Open source software (OSS) has become indispensable to our society. The success of OSS depends on the participation of a large number of developers or maintainers (contributors). Shedding light on the mechanisms of their participation has been an important academic and practical matter. One aspect to decide participation is the future prospects of a project. However, the causal mechanism behind participation has yet to be studied exhaustively and remains unclear. In this study, we used cryptocurrency projects, many of them were developed on GitHub, to better understand this mechanism. Both GitHub and cryptocurrencies are highly transparent, i.e., information is fully disclosed; we can analyze relevant information on a project, such as the contributors' activities, financial information, and development status. We adopted market capitalization as the substitution index of future prospects and the number of contributors and analyzed the relationship using time series analysis techniques, such as the Granger causality test and regression. We found that the number of contributors increases two months after market capitalization increases. This quantifies the impact of the future prospects of the project, i.e., of the market capitalization of a cryptocurrency, on the participation of contributors.