著者

Hirose Hideo

出版者

International Information Institute

雑誌

Information (ISSN:13434500)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, no.7, pp.5365-5390, 2013-07

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Two pandemic simulation approaches are known: the multi-agent simulation model and the differential equation model. The multi-agent model can deal with detailed simulations under a variety of initial and boundary conditions with standard social network models; however, the computing cost is high. The differential equation model can quickly deal with simulations for homogeneous populations with simultaneous ordinary differential equations and a few parameters; however, it lacks versatility in its use.We propose a new method named the MADE which is a combination of these two models, such that we use the multi-agent model in the early stage in a simulation to determine the parameters that can be used in the differential equation model, and then use the differential equation model in the subsequent stage. With this method, we may deal with pandemic simulations for real social structures with lower computing costs. Contrary to the statistical inference method which could not predict the final stage unless abundant information is included, the MADE have a possibility to do that only with the earlier stage information. The newly emerged pandemic, the novel influenza A(H1N1) case in 2009, is dealt with.