著者

原 俊彦

出版者

札幌市立大学

雑誌

札幌市立大学研究論文集 = SCU journal of Design & Nursing (ISSN:18819427)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.3, no.1, pp.5-18, 2009-03-31

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ドイツでは生涯無子に留まる人々の増加が注目されるようになり,その割合は1967年生まれの女性で28%まで上昇している.一方,日本も1965年生まれの女性の12.7%から1970年生まれの30.0%へと,無子の女性が増大する傾向にある. そこで本研究ではドイツと日本の少子化の動向を概観し,無子(Childlessness)の定義,生涯未婚率,有配偶無子,完結出生児数,妻の出生児数別割合などの歴史的変化と将来予測を通じ,両国の無子割合の増加傾向を比較し,その共通点と相違点を抽出した.次にドイツの人口政策受容調査や日本の出生動向基本調査に現れた希望子ども数の分布,とりわけ無子希望の割合やその理由を比較し,学歴,就業,所得,意識,家族観など,無子割合や無子希望割合への影響要因について日独の研究事例をもとに分析した.最後に無子増加に関する学説・仮説などを中心に,この問題に対する社会学的考察を進めた. 結論として,いわゆる「第二の人口転換」のありうる帰結の一つとして,近代家族から,仕事と家庭が調和する多様な脱近代家族へと向かうのではなく,社会成員のかなりの部分がパートナーシップの形成や自己再生産を保留し家族形成を放棄する,究極の個人主義社会へと向かう,そのような無子社会(持続しうるかどうかは別として)への道という可能性も考えられるのではないか?という問題を提起した.This paper focuses on childlessness in Germany and Japan and its sociological meanings in family formation in postmodern societies. First,it shows the trends of fertility decline and increasing childlessness, and clarifies the similarities and differences in both countries, by comparing parity composition, educational attainment, and other socioeconomic correlates of childlessness. Second, using the data of attitudinal surveys,such as the 2003 Population Policy Acceptance Study(PPAS)in Germany and the 13th National Fertility Survey (JNFS;2005) in Japan, the reasons for having nochildren are observed. Third,referring to the discussions of German scholars,it tries to explain the sociological meanings of childlessness and to describe the development toward a childless society (even if it's demographically not sustainable) as one of the possible consequences of the Second Demographic Transition. Important findings are as follows: (1) In Germany the fertility decline began early in the mid-1960s but in Japan later from mid-1970s so that the increase of childlessness has been a little delayed. The proportion of childless women in Western Germany increased to 28% for the 1966 cohort. In Japan,it has increased to 12.7% for the 1960 cohort,but is expected to reach 30% for the 1970 cohort.(2) The educational gap in childlessness is clearly observed in Germany;however,this is not so simple in Japan.Corresponding with the increase of childlessness,the desired number of children in average is declining.The emergence of a child-free culture is observed in Germany by PPAS, but not yet in Japan by JNFS.(3) Polarization may proceed further in both countries, between childless people and people with many children.