著者

鵜川 洋樹 細山 隆夫 藤田 直聡 安武 正史

出版者

北海道農業研究センター

雑誌

北海道農業研究センター研究報告 (ISSN:13478117)

巻号頁・発行日

no.180, pp.45-161, 2004-03

被引用文献数

1

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The difference between regions of dairy pro-duction is becoming still clearer with develop-ment of dairy farming after the 1990s. Moreover, in order to advance systematization of agricultural production concretely, the state of the dairy farming development in an area must be grasped quantitatively. In addition, those prospective trend forecasting is also re-quired. Then, in this paper, trend forecasting of the dairy farming development in the main dairy producing district regions in Hokkaido is aimed at comprehensive and explaining quanti-tatively. Therefore, the management arable-land area and the head of dairy cattle, which specify the state of development of the Hokkaido dairy, which depends on a land use type dairy, are taken up. And the number of dairy farms according to each scale class is analyzed. Therefore, a dynamic table is cre-ated from agricultural census farm question-naire in 1995 and 2000. And the Markov analysis was applied to this dynamic table, and the number of dairy farms by 2020 was esti-mated by the unit for five years. Transition of the Hokkaido dairy in 1950-2000 is surveyed as they are sharp reduction of the number of dairy farms, and the steep in-crease in a head of dairy cattle. Moreover, in the reality of the number reduction of dairy farmers, sharp reduction of a small-scale class and the increase in a large-scale class were progressing simultaneously. Moreover, there was almost no change in a dairy farm's man-agement arable-land area in spite of such a big change involving head of dairy cattle. Consequently, a head of dairy cattle and man-agement arable-land area were steep increased per farm. However, management arable-land area per animal decreased, and land use type livestock raising was obliged to retreat. However, such a tendency begins to become slow after 1990s, and it can be considered that the trend of the Hokkaido dairy went into the stable aspect of affairs. Scale expansion of Nemuro region is the most remarkable in both sides of increase-and-decrease forecasting of a turning point of the number of dairy farms to arable-land area, and a dairy cattle head. Subsequently, it con-tinues with Kushiro and Soya region, and Rumoi region. However, the turning point of a dairy cattle head is larger than that of ar-able-land area in this except Rumoi region, and the scale expansion speed of a dairy cattle head has exceeded arable_land area. And this difference of Tokachi region is the largest. Such a tendency is seen also at Abashiri re-gion, Hidaka region, and Oshima region. Nemuro region becomes the class composi-tion whose arable-land area and dairy cattle head inclined toward the large-scale class from forecasting of a mode class. And both Soya and Rumoi region become the class composi-tion concentrated on a middle scale. On the other hand, the arable-land area of Kushiro and Tokachi region is concentrated on a middle scale. The dairy cattle head of Kushiro region inclines on a large scale, and is forecasted to distribute the dairy cattle head of Tokachi re-gion on a middle scale from large-scale. Although the trend of cities, towns and vil-lages is in correspond with the trend of each region in general, the dairy cattle head of Tokachi region has a large difference by cities, towns and villages. That is, Shihoro-cho, Kamishihoro-cho, Shikaoi-cho, etc. concentrate arable-land area on a middle scale. However, a dairy cattle head inclines on a large scale, and is forecasted that both Honbetsu-cho, Otofuke-cho, etc. become the class composition concentrated on a middle scale. Comparison of the average of the rate of re-duction of the numbers of dairy farms from 1995 to 2000 and the rates of the number re-duction of before five-year dairies from 2000 to 2020 forecasting falling in almost all areas. Therefore, it is tended to converge reduction of the number of dairy farms. The trend forecasting result of the area where transition according to scale class of "small-scale reduction and a large-scale in-crease" is forecasted for arable_land area and a dairy cattle head is classified into a "small-scale decline, middle-scale survival, and large-scale increase" type in many cases. Nemuro re-gion, Bekkai-cho, Kushiro region, Shibecha-cho, Teshikaga-cho,Toyotomi-cho,Bifuka-cho,Kamishihoro-cho, Urahoro-cho, Taiki-cho, and Monbetsu-shi correspond. Moreover, although the same transition according to scale class is forecasted, there are Nakashibetsu-cho, Akkeshi-cho, Esashi-cho, and Churui-mura as an area where the types of a trend forecasting result differ. All are classified into a "minor scale decline and large_scale increase" type, and espe-cially in a dairy cattle head, these areas have the remarkable increase in a large-scale class, and are forecasted to become scale expansion by which it inclined toward the dairy cattle head. Shiranuka-cho, Nemuro-shi, Teshio-cho,Wakkanai-shi, and Hiroo-cho are as transition according to scale class by in arable-land area by being forecasted as small-scale reduction and a large-scale increase, a small-scale de-crease and a large-scale not increase by dairy cattle heads. The type of the trend forecasting result of these areas is common in respect of "middle-scale survival." A "small-scale decline, middle-scale survival, and large-scale increase" type, Shiranuka-cho, Wakkanai_shi, and Hiroo-cho are classified into a "middle-scale survival and change smallness" type for Teshio-cho,Nemuro-shi and Shikaoi-cho. Similarly, al-though transitions according to scale class are forecasted to be small-scale reduction and a large-scale increase in arable-land area, Nakagawa-cho, Honbetsu-cho, Sarufutsu-mura, and Otofuke-cho decrease in number as an area without change in a whole class in dairy cattle heads. The class composition form of these areas is forecasted that arable-land area and a dairy cattle head become a single peak type in general. The type of a trend forecasting result is also common in respect of "middle_scale survival." Tsurui-mura, Hamatonbetsu-cho, Abashiri region, Yubetsu-cho, and Chitose-shi are as a large_scale increase is not seen but a small scale reduction is forecasted in arable-land area, small-scale reduction and a large-scale increase is forecasted in dairy cattle heads. The type of the trend forecasting result of these areas is common by "middle-scale sur-vival", except Abashiri region. Similarly, in arable-land area, it is forecasted as small-scale reduction, and the dairy cattle head of transi-tion according to scale class is also small-scale decreases, a large-scale increase is not seen in Soya region, Rumoi region, Kamikawa region, Tokachi region, Ishikari region, Hidaka region, Oshima region, etc. In these areas, in order that only a small-scale class may decrease, the forecasting it is supposed that the form of class composition becomes the single peak type or flat which the number of farms had from the first, and which is concentrated on a mid-dle scale has a large number. The trend forecasting result of the area forecasted that class composition form becomes a single peak type is common by "middle-scale survival." Hamanaka-cho, Obihiro-shi,Makubetsu-cho,Shimizu-cho, Ashoro-cho, Omu-cho, Saroma-cho, and Yakumo-cho correspond. There are Shibetsu-cho, Horonobe-cho and Monbetsu-cho as an area where transition ac-cording to scale class of arable-land area is forecasted to have no change. Although tran-sition according to scale class of a dairy cattle head is divided into small-scale reduction and a large-scale increase as having no change, it is forecasted that each form of class composition becomes a single peak type. The trend fore-casting result is common by "middle-scale sur-vival." Especially, in Shibetsu-cho and Shihoro-cho, the large-scale class of a dairy cattle head increases, and it is forecasted that an ar-able-land area becoming middle-scale survival and a dairy cattle head becomes a large-scale increase, and becomes scale expansion which in-clined toward the dairy cattle head.