著者

今井 未来 水山 元

出版者

一般社団法人 人工知能学会

雑誌

人工知能学会論文誌 (ISSN:13460714)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.I-F77, (Released:2015-12-16)

参考文献数

31

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Recently, prediction markets are also used for estimating preferences, whose correct answer will not be revealed even after the market is closed, and, when used for the purpose, they are called preference markets. In order to utilize a preference market for estimating the attractiveness of product concepts expressed as combinations of various attributes, two technical questions remain to be answered. Firstly, how to estimate the preference on every possible combination of the attributes under consideration based on the results from a preference market comparing only a limited number of concepts? Secondly, how to incentivize the participants in the preference market to provide their estimation truthfully? This paper, therefore, develops a new product concept evaluation system by combining preference markets with conjoint analysis, and proposes three guidelines for how to determine the payoff for prediction securities. They are (1) to determine the payoff not directly from the security prices but indirectly through a model; (2) to run multiple markets in parallel if possible and use the results from all of them when determining the payoff; and (3) to use smoothed values instead of the final values as the security prices for determining the payoff. Moreover, the proposed system is tested with a simple evolutionary game simulation.

著者

今井 未来 水山 元

出版者

人工知能学会

雑誌

人工知能学会全国大会論文集 (ISSN:13479881)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.28, 2014

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本研究では,魅力的な新商品のコンセプトを決定するための手段として,予測市場の知識集約機能をコンジョイント分析と組み合わせた,商品コンセプト評価システムを設計し,そのための配当政策を提案する.予測市場を用いることで,アンケート調査などの従来手法よりも少ない負担でより多くの潜在顧客の嗜好を適切にコンセプトに反映させることを可能とする.また,簡単なエージェントシミュレーションによってその機能を検証する.