著者

寉田 知久

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.29, no.1, pp.62-69, 2002-03-29

被引用文献数

1

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In the July 2001 election of the House of Councillors, THE YOMIURI SHIMBUN was able to conduct an accurate forecast of the landslide victory of the LDP in its nationwide survey on more than 60,000 eligible voters. For this poll, the YOMIURI adopted the telephone survey, selecting samples randomly from electoral registers. The suggested reasons for the gratifying results are the influence of "Koizumi phenomenon" and the improvements of the method of the survey. However, due to the large number of unlisted numbers, this survey actually failed to reach a considerable number of eligible voters. Furthermore, since listed numbers are already gradually on the decrease, by the next national election, the dilemma of reaching a significant number of voters will be even more problematic. Therefore, toward an accurate survey for the next election, improved methods of sampling are necessary, and in the case of the telephone survey, an adoption of RDD (Random Digit Dialing) is suggested.

著者

寉田 知久

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.35, no.1, pp.5-16, 2008-03-28

参考文献数

6

被引用文献数

4

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THE YOMIURI SHIMBUN has conducted monthly public opinion polls, using face-to-face interviews, since March 1978. Since the beginning of the 1990s, the response rate to these surveys has been decreasing, and is remarkably low in recent days. Since 2006, the average yearly response rate has been under 60%.<br>I believe the main reason for the decline is increasing awareness of personal privacy. As evidence of this, there has been a greater rise in the percentage of people who decline to participate, than in the percentage of those who are not at home when interviewers visit. We have taken steps to improve the situation, such as hiring skilled interviewers, but it has not stopped the decline. At this moment, we do not have a sure-fire method for improving the rate of response.<br>The current fashion is for RDD surveys, and if face-to-face interviews are to survive, I believe we must increase understanding of the importance of opinion polls. To that end, in addition to further improving the implementation of our surveys, we should make every effort to prepare fair-minded questions, analyze and report survey results appropriately and make data available to the public.

著者

寉田 知久

出版者

公益財団法人 日本世論調査協会

雑誌

日本世論調査協会報「よろん」 (ISSN:21894531)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.113, pp.41-42, 2014