著者
登藤 直弥 小林 哲郎 稲増 一憲
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.43, no.2, pp.129-141, 2016 (Released:2017-06-30)
参考文献数
24

In this paper, we introduced a method of causal inference for arbitrary treatment regimes. We first expounded the generalized propensity score (Imai & Van Dyk, 2004) that extended the propensity score for binary treatments, and then causal inference with this generalized propensity score. Furthermore, we reanalyzed the data of relations between mass media and politics from a previous study, and discussed the usefulness of causal inference using generalized propensity scores.
著者
星野 崇宏 繁桝 算男
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.31, no.1, pp.43-61, 2004 (Released:2005-12-02)
参考文献数
72
被引用文献数
8 6 16

In behavioral sciences, it is often difficult to execute an experimental study with random assignment. Therefore researchers usually do a quasi-experiment or a survey study without random assignment.However, under these studies the distributions of the covariates that would affect dependent variables usually differ with the values of the independent variables.To eliminate the influence of the covariates, various adjustment methods such as analysis of covariance have been applied to these data.Recently new adjustment methods using the propensity score proposed by Rosenbaum & Rubin (1983) have been applied to many researches especially in the areas of medicine or economics, and these methods also attract attention in behavioral sciences.The propensity score methods are also used for adjustment of survey data.In this paper, we give a detailed explanation of several estimation methods of causal effect using the propensity scores and related topics.We also review adjustment methods of biased survey data using the propensity scores.
著者
福田 昌史
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.35, no.1, pp.59-71, 2008 (Released:2009-04-07)
参考文献数
18
被引用文献数
1 2

Exit polls are excellent sources of information to understand voter behavior and to predict election outcomes. This paper presents the current methods of exit polls, which is conducted primarily by the Mainichi Newspapers, and discusses issues related to exit polls.Exit polls are based on a two-stage sampling design, with a polling precinct as the primary sampling unit and a voter as the final sampling unit. Precincts are stratified and selected systematically with probability proportional to the precincts' forecasted number of voters. The voters of a precinct are first selected systematically, with the interval predetermined based on the forecasted numbers of voters, and subsequently, asked for interviews.The datasets of exit polls that have been collected during 23 governor elections held since April, 2003 are analyzed. Standard errors of the estimated proportions of votes for 90 candidates are, on average, 1.5 times larger than the respective standard errors based on the simple random sampling.The analysis also reveals that the estimated proportions of votes for 20% of the candidates are outside the 95% confidence intervals, which suggests that there exist some sources of errors apart from the sampling error. The issues related to exit polls, including those concerning errors caused by an increasing number of early voters and non-responses, are discussed.
著者
松田 映二
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.45, no.2, pp.95-106, 2018 (Released:2019-04-26)
参考文献数
17

In the 1950s, Chikio Hayashi developed an election prediction model for Japan by using sampling theory and face-to-face surveys. This model is built on the following steps: (1) defining the support rate for each candidate; (2) estimating the ratio of votes garnered by each candidate; (3) using Hayashi’s quantification method type 1 and cor- recting the difference between the value estimated from the third order regression and the ratio of votes; and (4) calculating the winning probability for each candidate by us- ing quantification method type 2 or the margin of error for the estimated ratio of votes. In the 1990s, the telephone replaced the face-to-face survey mode, providing changes to Hayashi’s election prediction model. We discuss the reasons for these improvements.

17 0 0 0 OA 科学史と科学者

著者
高橋 正樹 編
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.31, no.2, pp.107-124, 2004 (Released:2005-11-22)
被引用文献数
1 1
著者
三浦 麻子 小林 哲郎
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.45, no.1, pp.1-11, 2018 (Released:2018-11-03)
参考文献数
19
被引用文献数
1

This study investigated the influence of satisficing on response behavior in online surveys. We compared online response data to psychological scales and logical thinking tasks conducted by an online survey company and a crowd sourcing service. In previous studies, satisficing was found to be more likely to occur among online survey monitors than among crowd sourcing service contributors. Results of the present study replicated it and showed that satisficing in terms of inattentively reading items significantly damages the integrity of psychological scales. On the other hand, it was also found that the influence of satisficing in terms of inattentively reading instructions carefully can be reduced by raising respondents' awareness. Those conducting online surveys should discuss taking active measures to minimize satisficing.
著者
木下 冨雄
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.7, no.1, pp.29-39, 1979-09-30 (Released:2010-06-28)
参考文献数
23
著者
水野 坦
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.30, no.2, pp.191-192, 2003 (Released:2005-12-02)
著者
松田 映二
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.29, no.1, pp.81-89, 2002 (Released:2009-04-07)
参考文献数
11
被引用文献数
1 2

The Asahi Shimbun telephone survey made the transition from the list-assisted method to ASAHI-RDD (Random Digit Dialing) method in its survey prior to the Upper House Election in July, 2001. In fact, the Asahi Shimbun had estimated that more seats would be taken by the LDP than the actual results showed in the Upper House election in 1998 and in the Lower House election 2000, where they were without a win. The most probable cause of past failures consists of the non-coverage error since the list-assisted method had serious faults due to the large unlisted population. As RDD promised to give better results, Asahi decided to make use of Random Digit Dialing. While the Asahi method consists of Bank2 and random sampling, it does not use quota sampling. Its bank2-map includes the data, the number of listed-households and the overlap rate of area. A time schedule is created arranging the number of interviewers according to each day of the week. In addition to the problems caused by the current widespread use of mobile phones, there are many other problem areas which we must investigate and make efforts to solve.
著者
樋口 耕一
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.38, no.1, pp.1-12, 2011 (Released:2011-07-04)
参考文献数
28
被引用文献数
3 1

This paper investigates whether there is significant association between the content of newspaper articles and social consciousness trends in contemporary Japan, where it is already known that the influence of television and the Internet is pervasive. We examine whether it is possible to explore social consciousness by analyzing the content of newspapers. The data obtained are responses to open-ended questions in a nationwide survey —“JIS2004”— and articles in three newspapers:“Asahi,” “Yomiuri,” and “Mainichi.” The quantitative content analysis indicated a significant association between newspaper content and responses to the open-ended questions. However, this association could not be found in certain abstract themes. Thus, we argue that a content analysis of newspapers can be utilized as a research method for exploring social consciousness, although the focus should remain on concrete themes. The author also presents hypotheses about causal relationships between newspaper content and social consciousness.
著者
増田 真也 坂上 貴之 北岡 和代
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.44, no.2, pp.117-128, 2017 (Released:2018-04-26)
参考文献数
31
被引用文献数
1

This study examined whether responding to many items increased middle category response. In two internet-based experiments, respondents were randomly assigned to one of the four versions of the questionnaire. In Study 1, the respondents completed a Big Five questionnaire that had varied item arrangements. The results showed that the endorsement of the middle category increased for items placed later in the questionnaire for all versions. In Study 2, the Big Five questionnaires differed in that all items were administered at once or were facially divided into two scales. The results indicated that less middle categories were selected in the first 5 items of the second half scale than in the last 5 items of the first half scale for the divided formats, but the endorsement rates increased for items placed later toward the end of both half scales. An increasing middle category response was also found for another scale. Therefore, this phenomenon seems reliable.
著者
星野 崇宏 岡田 謙介 前田 忠彦
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.32, no.2, pp.209-235, 2005 (Released:2005-12-27)
参考文献数
94
被引用文献数
4 5

In this paper we surveyed several fit indices, model modification methods, and other related previous studies in structural equation modeling. Inconsistency in results was detected from the review of the literature. To obtain more reliable knowledge, we performed simulation studies some ten times larger in scale than previous studies to examine the soundness of Golden Rules and the relationship between indices. Also, bias in the distribution of likelihood ratio statistics which depends both sample size and model complexty was indicated as a result of another large simulation study. This could be one of the causes of inconsistency in former studies of fit indices. We also examined fit indices for structural equation modeling with mean structure, multiple groups and categorical indicators. Stepwise estimation methods, model modification methods, and Item Parceling Issues were also reviewed.
著者
森本 栄一
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.32, no.1, pp.45-67, 2005 (Released:2005-12-20)
参考文献数
159
被引用文献数
2 1

This paper will overview the history of Hayashi's Quantification Methods (HQM), as a general statistical method and philosophy to obtain scientific information.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics (ISM) was established by the effort of Japanese statistical mathematicians during the Second World War. The postwar reformation of ISM, especially the establishment of the Department of Social Sciences, linked the traditional theories of statistics with practical social survey. As a result of this linkage, a new statistical approach and method known as HQM was formulated by C. Hayashi in 1950s.HQM was employed and extended to various fields, especially Marketing Research and Medical Engineering (ME). The education of HQM at the training school for statistical technicians of ISM also played an important role for HQM to be well received.Conducting a series of studies, statistical researchers gradually formed a new paradigm of statistical research, and it was crystallized as the foundation of Nihon Koudou-keiryo Gakkai (Behaviormetric Society of Japan) in 1973.The history of Hayashi's studies is the development of his statistical philosophy from “Statistical Mathematics” of 1950s to “Behaviormetrics”, “Multidimensional Data Analysis” of 1970s-1980s “Data Science” since 1990s. His approach and philosophy has been developed by his successors as “the Behaviormetric Studies of Civilization” as an exemplification of “Data Science”.
著者
福田 昌史
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.44, no.1, pp.85-94, 2017 (Released:2017-12-01)
参考文献数
26

The Yomiuri Shimbun introduced dual-frame RDD surveys of landline and cell-phone users for monthly public-opinion surveys. To improve the survey methods, this study investigated experimental dual-frame RDD surveys. The results show that cell-phone surveys are a feasible method for use in Japan, improve the coverage of telephone surveys, effectively reach young respondents, and produce data of adequate quality. The unequal weighting effects (UWEs) of the dual-frame surveys were also examined to measure increases in variance. Increases in variance due to weighting were small, and the UWE was better than in single-frame landline surveys.
著者
盛山 和夫
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.24, no.1, pp.1-10, 1997-09-30 (Released:2010-08-10)
参考文献数
40
被引用文献数
3 1

Quantitative studies of social stratification and social mobility have greatly contributed to the spread and popularization of statistical analysis among sociological researches. Various new statistical methods were promptly utilized in the field of stratification studies and this helped not only sociologists to analyse the stratification data with greater conceptual clarity and precision but statisticians to develop their methods with concrete empirical applications. However, in recent days the fever which in past days activated many stratification researches seems to have declined from its highest level. One reason for this is undoubtedly the general, both in academics and in populace, decline of concern over the class problems in modern society. Another reason seems to reside in the quantitative stratification studies themselves. This paper analyses the methodological problems which we the stratification researchers need to solve in order to reactivate the social stratification studies.
著者
岡田 陽介
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.44, no.1, pp.17-25, 2017 (Released:2017-12-01)
参考文献数
37

This study sheds light on the effect of non-verbal information on impression for politician, and tested whether voice pitch influenced perceptions of politicians. In the experiment, we manipulated voice pitch of recordings of the debate by nine political party leaders and asked participants their impressions (favorableness and trustworthiness). We found that while lower-pitched voices increase favorableness and trustworthiness in politicians' image, higher-pitched voices negatively effect on these images, particularly on trustworthiness.