著者
登藤 直弥 小林 哲郎 稲増 一憲
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.43, no.2, pp.129-141, 2016 (Released:2017-06-30)
参考文献数
24

In this paper, we introduced a method of causal inference for arbitrary treatment regimes. We first expounded the generalized propensity score (Imai & Van Dyk, 2004) that extended the propensity score for binary treatments, and then causal inference with this generalized propensity score. Furthermore, we reanalyzed the data of relations between mass media and politics from a previous study, and discussed the usefulness of causal inference using generalized propensity scores.
著者
福田 昌史
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.35, no.1, pp.59-71, 2008 (Released:2009-04-07)
参考文献数
18
被引用文献数
1 1

Exit polls are excellent sources of information to understand voter behavior and to predict election outcomes. This paper presents the current methods of exit polls, which is conducted primarily by the Mainichi Newspapers, and discusses issues related to exit polls.Exit polls are based on a two-stage sampling design, with a polling precinct as the primary sampling unit and a voter as the final sampling unit. Precincts are stratified and selected systematically with probability proportional to the precincts' forecasted number of voters. The voters of a precinct are first selected systematically, with the interval predetermined based on the forecasted numbers of voters, and subsequently, asked for interviews.The datasets of exit polls that have been collected during 23 governor elections held since April, 2003 are analyzed. Standard errors of the estimated proportions of votes for 90 candidates are, on average, 1.5 times larger than the respective standard errors based on the simple random sampling.The analysis also reveals that the estimated proportions of votes for 20% of the candidates are outside the 95% confidence intervals, which suggests that there exist some sources of errors apart from the sampling error. The issues related to exit polls, including those concerning errors caused by an increasing number of early voters and non-responses, are discussed.
著者
木下 冨雄
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.7, no.1, pp.29-39, 1979-09-30 (Released:2010-06-28)
参考文献数
23
著者
三浦 麻子 小林 哲郎
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.45, no.1, pp.1-11, 2018 (Released:2018-11-03)
参考文献数
19

This study investigated the influence of satisficing on response behavior in online surveys. We compared online response data to psychological scales and logical thinking tasks conducted by an online survey company and a crowd sourcing service. In previous studies, satisficing was found to be more likely to occur among online survey monitors than among crowd sourcing service contributors. Results of the present study replicated it and showed that satisficing in terms of inattentively reading items significantly damages the integrity of psychological scales. On the other hand, it was also found that the influence of satisficing in terms of inattentively reading instructions carefully can be reduced by raising respondents' awareness. Those conducting online surveys should discuss taking active measures to minimize satisficing.
著者
高橋 正樹 編
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.31, no.2, pp.107-124, 2004 (Released:2005-11-22)
被引用文献数
1 1
著者
松田 映二
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.29, no.1, pp.81-89, 2002 (Released:2009-04-07)
参考文献数
11
被引用文献数
1 2

The Asahi Shimbun telephone survey made the transition from the list-assisted method to ASAHI-RDD (Random Digit Dialing) method in its survey prior to the Upper House Election in July, 2001. In fact, the Asahi Shimbun had estimated that more seats would be taken by the LDP than the actual results showed in the Upper House election in 1998 and in the Lower House election 2000, where they were without a win. The most probable cause of past failures consists of the non-coverage error since the list-assisted method had serious faults due to the large unlisted population. As RDD promised to give better results, Asahi decided to make use of Random Digit Dialing. While the Asahi method consists of Bank2 and random sampling, it does not use quota sampling. Its bank2-map includes the data, the number of listed-households and the overlap rate of area. A time schedule is created arranging the number of interviewers according to each day of the week. In addition to the problems caused by the current widespread use of mobile phones, there are many other problem areas which we must investigate and make efforts to solve.
著者
樋口 耕一
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.38, no.1, pp.1-12, 2011 (Released:2011-07-04)
参考文献数
28
被引用文献数
3 1

This paper investigates whether there is significant association between the content of newspaper articles and social consciousness trends in contemporary Japan, where it is already known that the influence of television and the Internet is pervasive. We examine whether it is possible to explore social consciousness by analyzing the content of newspapers. The data obtained are responses to open-ended questions in a nationwide survey —“JIS2004”— and articles in three newspapers:“Asahi,” “Yomiuri,” and “Mainichi.” The quantitative content analysis indicated a significant association between newspaper content and responses to the open-ended questions. However, this association could not be found in certain abstract themes. Thus, we argue that a content analysis of newspapers can be utilized as a research method for exploring social consciousness, although the focus should remain on concrete themes. The author also presents hypotheses about causal relationships between newspaper content and social consciousness.
著者
水野 坦
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.30, no.2, pp.191-192, 2003 (Released:2005-12-02)
著者
盛山 和夫
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.24, no.1, pp.1-10, 1997-09-30 (Released:2010-08-10)
参考文献数
40
被引用文献数
3 1

Quantitative studies of social stratification and social mobility have greatly contributed to the spread and popularization of statistical analysis among sociological researches. Various new statistical methods were promptly utilized in the field of stratification studies and this helped not only sociologists to analyse the stratification data with greater conceptual clarity and precision but statisticians to develop their methods with concrete empirical applications. However, in recent days the fever which in past days activated many stratification researches seems to have declined from its highest level. One reason for this is undoubtedly the general, both in academics and in populace, decline of concern over the class problems in modern society. Another reason seems to reside in the quantitative stratification studies themselves. This paper analyses the methodological problems which we the stratification researchers need to solve in order to reactivate the social stratification studies.
著者
寉田 知久
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.29, no.1, pp.62-69, 2002-03-29
被引用文献数
1

In the July 2001 election of the House of Councillors, THE YOMIURI SHIMBUN was able to conduct an accurate forecast of the landslide victory of the LDP in its nationwide survey on more than 60,000 eligible voters. For this poll, the YOMIURI adopted the telephone survey, selecting samples randomly from electoral registers. The suggested reasons for the gratifying results are the influence of "Koizumi phenomenon" and the improvements of the method of the survey. However, due to the large number of unlisted numbers, this survey actually failed to reach a considerable number of eligible voters. Furthermore, since listed numbers are already gradually on the decrease, by the next national election, the dilemma of reaching a significant number of voters will be even more problematic. Therefore, toward an accurate survey for the next election, improved methods of sampling are necessary, and in the case of the telephone survey, an adoption of RDD (Random Digit Dialing) is suggested.
著者
佐部利 真吾
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.44, no.2, pp.209-219, 2017 (Released:2018-04-26)
参考文献数
20

A maximum likelihood method for asymmetric multidimensional scaling, which was proposed by Saburi and Chino (Comput. Stat. Data Anal., 52:4673-4684, 2008), uses the additive error model in which the normally distributed error terms are added to the dissimilarities. In this study, we introduce in this method the multiplicative error model, where the log-normally distributed error terms are multiplied by the dissimilarities, and the corresponding representation of the dissimilarities. It was applied to the visibility data for the combinations of foreground and background colors, assuming the multiplicative as well as the additive error model. The optimal model was found with the multiplicative error model according to AIC.
著者
増田 真也 坂上 貴之 北岡 和代
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.44, no.2, pp.117-128, 2017 (Released:2018-04-26)
参考文献数
31
被引用文献数
1

This study examined whether responding to many items increased middle category response. In two internet-based experiments, respondents were randomly assigned to one of the four versions of the questionnaire. In Study 1, the respondents completed a Big Five questionnaire that had varied item arrangements. The results showed that the endorsement of the middle category increased for items placed later in the questionnaire for all versions. In Study 2, the Big Five questionnaires differed in that all items were administered at once or were facially divided into two scales. The results indicated that less middle categories were selected in the first 5 items of the second half scale than in the last 5 items of the first half scale for the divided formats, but the endorsement rates increased for items placed later toward the end of both half scales. An increasing middle category response was also found for another scale. Therefore, this phenomenon seems reliable.
著者
鄭 躍軍
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.32, no.2, pp.161-172, 2005 (Released:2005-12-27)
参考文献数
15
被引用文献数
1 1

Confucianism, as the typical Chinese thought, has influenced the people's attitude toward life, set the patterns of living and the standards of social values in China, Japan, Korea, and the other Oriental countries historically. Confucian ethical teachings include the traditional values such as benevolence & humaneness (Ren), righteousness (Yi), ritual & etiquette (Li), love within the family (Xiao), loyalty to the state (Zhong), honesty & trustworthiness (Xin) etc. This paper presents the results of comparative analysis of Chinese, Japanese, and Korean values based on the East Asian values survey conducted with the face-to-face interview in the mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan from October 2002 to November 2003. Data analysis in this study was mainly focusing on some aspects of people's attitudes toward family, marriage, gender, traditional values using correspondence analysis. Except general pattern classification based on “Traditional-Modern” axis, the relationship between people's attitudes and their attribute variables such as gender and age have also been identified.
著者
福田 昌史
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.35, no.1, pp.59-71, 2008-03-28
被引用文献数
1

Exit polls are excellent sources of information to understand voter behavior and to predict election outcomes. This paper presents the current methods of exit polls, which is conducted primarily by the Mainichi Newspapers, and discusses issues related to exit polls. Exit polls are based on a two-stage sampling design, with a polling precinct as the primary sampling unit and a voter as the final sampling unit. Precincts are stratified and selected systematically with probability proportional to the precincts' forecasted number of voters. The voters of a precinct are first selected systematically, with the interval predetermined based on the forecasted numbers of voters, and subsequently, asked for interviews. The datasets of exit polls that have been collected during 23 governor elections held since April, 2003 are analyzed. Standard errors of the estimated proportions of votes for 90 candidates are, on average, 1.5 times larger than the respective standard errors based on the simple random sampling. The analysis also reveals that the estimated proportions of votes for 20% of the candidates are outside the 95% confidence intervals, which suggests that there exist some sources of errors apart from the sampling error. The issues related to exit polls, including those concerning errors caused by an increasing number of early voters and non-responses, are discussed.
著者
狩野 裕
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.29, no.2, pp.138-159, 2002-12-25
被引用文献数
20 26

It is well-known that structural equation modeling (SEM) can represent a variety of traditional multivariate statistical models. This fact does not necessarily mean that SEM should be used for the traditional models. It is often said that a general model is more difficult to handle than a specific model developed for a given situation. In this paper, we shall clarify relative advantages between SEM and several traditional statistical models. Rather than comparison in mathematical properties, we shall discuss how and when SEM outperforms corresponding traditional models in practical situations. Special attention is paid to statistical analysis of a scale score, the sum of indicator variables determined by factor analysis. In particular, we shall study relative advantages between (i) confirmatory factor analysis and exploratory factor analysis, (ii) multiple indicator analysis and correlational and regression analysis of scale scores, (iii) analysis of factor means and analysis of variance of scale scores, and (iv) path analysis and multiple regression analysis.
著者
石岡 恒憲
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.31, no.2, pp.67-87, 2004 (Released:2005-11-22)
参考文献数
70
被引用文献数
5 1 8

With the aim of removing human errors and providing critical feedback and suggestions for improvement, considerable research has be done on computer-based automated essay-scoring systems. Examples of these include e-rater, PEG, IEA, IntelliMetric, and BETSY. This paper summarizes how these systems work in an attempt to comprehend their features. They are also compared. An automated Japanese essay-scoring system named Jess is introduced, including our analysis of its performance. Lastly, difficulties caused by its treatment of Japanese passages and related problems are discussed.