著者
福田 昌史
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.35, no.1, pp.59-71, 2008 (Released:2009-04-07)
参考文献数
18
被引用文献数
2 2

Exit polls are excellent sources of information to understand voter behavior and to predict election outcomes. This paper presents the current methods of exit polls, which is conducted primarily by the Mainichi Newspapers, and discusses issues related to exit polls.Exit polls are based on a two-stage sampling design, with a polling precinct as the primary sampling unit and a voter as the final sampling unit. Precincts are stratified and selected systematically with probability proportional to the precincts' forecasted number of voters. The voters of a precinct are first selected systematically, with the interval predetermined based on the forecasted numbers of voters, and subsequently, asked for interviews.The datasets of exit polls that have been collected during 23 governor elections held since April, 2003 are analyzed. Standard errors of the estimated proportions of votes for 90 candidates are, on average, 1.5 times larger than the respective standard errors based on the simple random sampling.The analysis also reveals that the estimated proportions of votes for 20% of the candidates are outside the 95% confidence intervals, which suggests that there exist some sources of errors apart from the sampling error. The issues related to exit polls, including those concerning errors caused by an increasing number of early voters and non-responses, are discussed.
著者
登藤 直弥 小林 哲郎 稲増 一憲
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.43, no.2, pp.129-141, 2016 (Released:2017-06-30)
参考文献数
24

In this paper, we introduced a method of causal inference for arbitrary treatment regimes. We first expounded the generalized propensity score (Imai & Van Dyk, 2004) that extended the propensity score for binary treatments, and then causal inference with this generalized propensity score. Furthermore, we reanalyzed the data of relations between mass media and politics from a previous study, and discussed the usefulness of causal inference using generalized propensity scores.
著者
星野 崇宏 繁桝 算男
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.31, no.1, pp.43-61, 2004 (Released:2005-12-02)
参考文献数
72
被引用文献数
8 7 16

In behavioral sciences, it is often difficult to execute an experimental study with random assignment. Therefore researchers usually do a quasi-experiment or a survey study without random assignment.However, under these studies the distributions of the covariates that would affect dependent variables usually differ with the values of the independent variables.To eliminate the influence of the covariates, various adjustment methods such as analysis of covariance have been applied to these data.Recently new adjustment methods using the propensity score proposed by Rosenbaum & Rubin (1983) have been applied to many researches especially in the areas of medicine or economics, and these methods also attract attention in behavioral sciences.The propensity score methods are also used for adjustment of survey data.In this paper, we give a detailed explanation of several estimation methods of causal effect using the propensity scores and related topics.We also review adjustment methods of biased survey data using the propensity scores.
著者
松田 映二
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.45, no.2, pp.95-106, 2018 (Released:2019-04-26)
参考文献数
17

In the 1950s, Chikio Hayashi developed an election prediction model for Japan by using sampling theory and face-to-face surveys. This model is built on the following steps: (1) defining the support rate for each candidate; (2) estimating the ratio of votes garnered by each candidate; (3) using Hayashi’s quantification method type 1 and cor- recting the difference between the value estimated from the third order regression and the ratio of votes; and (4) calculating the winning probability for each candidate by us- ing quantification method type 2 or the margin of error for the estimated ratio of votes. In the 1990s, the telephone replaced the face-to-face survey mode, providing changes to Hayashi’s election prediction model. We discuss the reasons for these improvements.
著者
島津 奈留 岡田 謙介
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.49, no.1, pp.63-82, 2022 (Released:2022-11-10)
参考文献数
100

Signal detection theory is a framework developed in mathematical psychology to explain judgement with perceptual uncertainty, and is used in a variety of fields of psychonomics. It quantifies signal detectability, which is the ability to detect a perceived signal, and response bias, which is the tendency to overestimate or underestimate the existence of a signal. It is essential for applied researchers to understand its mathematical background and theoretical development to date in order to apply the theory properly and productively. However, few comprehensive documents are available that comprehensively describe the theory in Japanese. Therefore, this paper addresses the basic concepts and methods of the theory with related mathematical backgrounds and reviews its recent theoretical developments.
著者
松田 映二
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.29, no.1, pp.81-89, 2002 (Released:2009-04-07)
参考文献数
11
被引用文献数
3 1 2

The Asahi Shimbun telephone survey made the transition from the list-assisted method to ASAHI-RDD (Random Digit Dialing) method in its survey prior to the Upper House Election in July, 2001. In fact, the Asahi Shimbun had estimated that more seats would be taken by the LDP than the actual results showed in the Upper House election in 1998 and in the Lower House election 2000, where they were without a win. The most probable cause of past failures consists of the non-coverage error since the list-assisted method had serious faults due to the large unlisted population. As RDD promised to give better results, Asahi decided to make use of Random Digit Dialing. While the Asahi method consists of Bank2 and random sampling, it does not use quota sampling. Its bank2-map includes the data, the number of listed-households and the overlap rate of area. A time schedule is created arranging the number of interviewers according to each day of the week. In addition to the problems caused by the current widespread use of mobile phones, there are many other problem areas which we must investigate and make efforts to solve.
著者
三浦 麻子 小林 哲郎
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.45, no.1, pp.1-11, 2018 (Released:2018-11-03)
参考文献数
19
被引用文献数
8 8

This study investigated the influence of satisficing on response behavior in online surveys. We compared online response data to psychological scales and logical thinking tasks conducted by an online survey company and a crowd sourcing service. In previous studies, satisficing was found to be more likely to occur among online survey monitors than among crowd sourcing service contributors. Results of the present study replicated it and showed that satisficing in terms of inattentively reading items significantly damages the integrity of psychological scales. On the other hand, it was also found that the influence of satisficing in terms of inattentively reading instructions carefully can be reduced by raising respondents' awareness. Those conducting online surveys should discuss taking active measures to minimize satisficing.

17 0 0 0 OA 科学史と科学者

著者
高橋 正樹 編
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.31, no.2, pp.107-124, 2004 (Released:2005-11-22)
被引用文献数
1 2
著者
藤田 和也 岡田 謙介
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.46, no.2, pp.53-71, 2019 (Released:2020-03-31)
参考文献数
46
被引用文献数
1

Measurement of subjective probability may theoretically be achieved based on the decision making tasks which require participants to choose between two gambles with known and unknown outcome probabilities. However, this approach is known to suffer from the effect of a human cognitive factor known as the ambiguity aversion. Moreover, because this approach is not based on statistical model, the estimation precision of the subjective probability cannot be evaluated. In the current study, we introduce the cumulative prospect theory model to this problem, and derive its Fisher information matrix. Using this information, we propose an adaptive presentation of the decision making tasks. Simulation studies and an empirical application confirmed that the derived Fisher information corresponds well with the empirical posterior standard deviation, and that the proposed adaptive task selection method performs much better than selecting the tasks at random. Furthermore, adaptive task selection which fixes the rewards of the two gambles was found to perform worse than the unconstrained ones. We conclude that unconstrained adaptive task selection is desirable for measurement of subjective probability under ambiguity.
著者
尾崎 幸謙 鈴木 貴士
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.46, no.2, pp.39-52, 2019 (Released:2020-03-31)
参考文献数
23
被引用文献数
2

Results of an analysis of survey data which includes data from inappropriate respondents (respondents who do not devote an appropriate amount of attentional resources when answering questions or whose answers for two questions are contradictory) are untrustworthy. To address this problem, an instructional manipulation check or directed questions scale can be used to identify such respondents. However, survey companies are not willing to use such tools for ethical reasons. In the present study, using eleven machine learning models and six exploratory variables, a prediction model which can judge whether a respondent is inappropriate is developed. The model shows that two explanatory variables, the maximum number of consecutive items on a scale to which a respondent answered with the same response option and response time, are effective for the prediction. The model can reduce the percentage of inappropriate respondents in the analyzed data, which leads to an improvement in the trustworthiness of the analysis results.
著者
木下 冨雄
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.7, no.1, pp.29-39, 1979-09-30 (Released:2010-06-28)
参考文献数
23
著者
神橋 彩乃 大久保 豪人 永田 靖
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.46, no.1, pp.1-10, 2019 (Released:2019-11-28)
参考文献数
16
被引用文献数
1

In this study, we analyzed factors affecting children’s academic achievement with the data of PISA2012 and PISA2015. We set up four hypotheses and verified them. Hy- pothesis 1 is “children’s attributes influence their motivation.” Hypothesis 2 is “children’s attributes and their motivation influence their academic achievement.” Hypothesis 3 is “maternal employment has a negative effect on children’s motivation.” Hypothesis 4 is “children’s attributes influence the parent-child relationship, and the parent-child rela- tionship has a positive effect on children’s motivation and their academic achievement.” We clarified hypothesis 1 and hypothesis 2 using graphical modeling. We verified hy- pothesis 3 utilizing a stratified analysis using a propensity score and clarified it in terms of Japanese girls. However, in sub-groups where in mothers tend to work more, mater- nal employment brings about a positive effect on their children’s motivation. Results show that relieving the gap in the children’s academic achievement may be possible by improving parent-child relationships and children’s motivation.
著者
水野 坦
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.30, no.2, pp.191-192, 2003 (Released:2005-12-02)
被引用文献数
1
著者
中野 暁 残間 大地
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.44, no.2, pp.129-140, 2017 (Released:2018-04-26)
参考文献数
23

Self-reported surveys in media usage behavior have been conducted by many companies and institutions. However, whether such surveys accurately reflect the actual usage has rarely been discussed. In this study, we revealed the difference between self-reported survey and automatically collected behavior log for smartphone usage duration, and investigated the relationship of individual attributes to the difference. Though past studies focused on measures (frequency versus duration) or question formats (open-ended versus closed), we successfully reduced the difference by adopting questioning methodologies, i.e., recall aids and timetable. We found that; (1) smartphone usage duration tends to be underreported, (2) when reported results highly deviate from the log, applying recall aids and timetable questionnaire reduces the difference, and (3) the difference is affected by age, gender, full-time job, and leisure time.
著者
樋口 耕一
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.38, no.1, pp.1-12, 2011 (Released:2011-07-04)
参考文献数
28
被引用文献数
9 6

This paper investigates whether there is significant association between the content of newspaper articles and social consciousness trends in contemporary Japan, where it is already known that the influence of television and the Internet is pervasive. We examine whether it is possible to explore social consciousness by analyzing the content of newspapers. The data obtained are responses to open-ended questions in a nationwide survey —“JIS2004”— and articles in three newspapers:“Asahi,” “Yomiuri,” and “Mainichi.” The quantitative content analysis indicated a significant association between newspaper content and responses to the open-ended questions. However, this association could not be found in certain abstract themes. Thus, we argue that a content analysis of newspapers can be utilized as a research method for exploring social consciousness, although the focus should remain on concrete themes. The author also presents hypotheses about causal relationships between newspaper content and social consciousness.
著者
森本 栄一
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.32, no.1, pp.45-67, 2005 (Released:2005-12-20)
参考文献数
159
被引用文献数
2 2

This paper will overview the history of Hayashi's Quantification Methods (HQM), as a general statistical method and philosophy to obtain scientific information.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics (ISM) was established by the effort of Japanese statistical mathematicians during the Second World War. The postwar reformation of ISM, especially the establishment of the Department of Social Sciences, linked the traditional theories of statistics with practical social survey. As a result of this linkage, a new statistical approach and method known as HQM was formulated by C. Hayashi in 1950s.HQM was employed and extended to various fields, especially Marketing Research and Medical Engineering (ME). The education of HQM at the training school for statistical technicians of ISM also played an important role for HQM to be well received.Conducting a series of studies, statistical researchers gradually formed a new paradigm of statistical research, and it was crystallized as the foundation of Nihon Koudou-keiryo Gakkai (Behaviormetric Society of Japan) in 1973.The history of Hayashi's studies is the development of his statistical philosophy from “Statistical Mathematics” of 1950s to “Behaviormetrics”, “Multidimensional Data Analysis” of 1970s-1980s “Data Science” since 1990s. His approach and philosophy has been developed by his successors as “the Behaviormetric Studies of Civilization” as an exemplification of “Data Science”.
著者
佐野 文哉 岩崎 学
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.44, no.2, pp.199-207, 2017 (Released:2018-04-26)
参考文献数
17

Experimental study with random allocation of treatments is regarded as the gold standard for estimation of causal parameters in statistical causal inference. However, when non-compliance among participants exists in the experiment it is likely to result in biased estimates of the parameters of interest. This paper discusses a sensitivity analysis in the estimation of causal parameters under apparent non-compliance. A motivating example is shown that concerns students' performance in university lectures. A procedure of sensitivity analysis for the estimates of causal parameters is presented that incorporates existence of apparent non-compliers, who are genuine compliers but act as non-compliers. An example of such procedure is shown for the case considered.
著者
盛山 和夫
出版者
日本行動計量学会
雑誌
行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.24, no.1, pp.1-10, 1997-09-30 (Released:2010-08-10)
参考文献数
40
被引用文献数
3 1

Quantitative studies of social stratification and social mobility have greatly contributed to the spread and popularization of statistical analysis among sociological researches. Various new statistical methods were promptly utilized in the field of stratification studies and this helped not only sociologists to analyse the stratification data with greater conceptual clarity and precision but statisticians to develop their methods with concrete empirical applications. However, in recent days the fever which in past days activated many stratification researches seems to have declined from its highest level. One reason for this is undoubtedly the general, both in academics and in populace, decline of concern over the class problems in modern society. Another reason seems to reside in the quantitative stratification studies themselves. This paper analyses the methodological problems which we the stratification researchers need to solve in order to reactivate the social stratification studies.