著者

嶋田 晴行

出版者

一般財団法人 アジア政経学会

雑誌

アジア研究 (ISSN:00449237)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.56, no.3, pp.45-58, 2010-07-31 (Released:2014-09-15)

参考文献数

33

被引用文献数

1

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Nine years after the collapse of the Taliban regime, the hope and optimism that the Afghan people held prior to the presidential election in 2004 seem to have declined. The deteriorating security situation has demanded the reconstruction and expansion of the security sector (national army and police) as the top priority. In fact, some measures, such as increasing the number of army and police staff members, have been taken, but the improvement in the quality is at a standstill. Accordingly, the dependence of the security sector of Afghanistan on the NATO-led International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) has been increasing.Even though there has been no distinct change in the fragile fiscal structures, which historically rely greatly on external assistance, a policy of upgrading the facilities, equipment, training, and salary levels in the security sector will create further pressure. Moreover, questions will be raised about the sustainability.In order to achieve successful state-building, restoring security and confidence in the government is crucial. In addition, it is necessary to establish a self-reliant fiscal structure. Nevertheless, things have not progressed well due to the worsening security situation in Afghanistan. However, because of increasing casualities and fiscal pressure, scepticism about assistance to Afghanistan has grown among the countries that have provided considerable inputs to Afghanistan. As a result, the governments of Canada and the Netherlands have announced timelines for withdrawal of their military units. Moreover, even the US declared its intention to start withdrawal of its military presence in the summer of 2011 in exchange for a short-term additional dispatch and further assistance to the Afghan security sector.Such a strengthening of assistance in the Afghan security sector would be a ‘localization’ of the security affairs and an ‘exit strategy’ for foreign stakeholders. However, this strategy cannot be achieved in a short period of time. Eventually, dependency on external resources will continue.Such dependency will result in an unstable situation in Afghanistan because external assistance tends to fluctuate due to political and economic reasons. Therefore, drawing a blueprint for Afghanistan’s future is a difficult task. However, stabilization in Afghanistan will contribute to regional stabilization in the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia. Appealing to external stakeholders to share the burden and accept long-term involvement with Afghanistan is the key to success in Afghan state-building.