著者

吉井 哲 Yoshii Satoshi 藤田 真哉 Fijita Shinya 徳丸 宜穂 Tokumaru Norio

出版者

名古屋大学大学院経済学研究科附属国際経済政策研究センター

雑誌

調査と資料 (ISSN:03856690)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.121, pp.1-45, 2017-07-05

著者

藤田 真哉

出版者

経済理論学会

雑誌

季刊経済理論 (ISSN:18825184)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.52, no.3, pp.3-6, 2015-10-20 (Released:2017-09-19)

著者

藤田 真哉

出版者

経済理論学会

雑誌

季刊経済理論 (ISSN:18825184)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.47, no.1, pp.66-78, 2010-04-20 (Released:2017-04-25)

---

This paper explains why the U.S. economy experienced high growth from the 1990s to the early 2000s while the Japanese economy stagnated during this same period. To do so, we firstly construct a Kaldorian cumulative causation model which takes into account the interrelation between demand and labor productivity growth in a two-sector (investment goods and consumption goods sectors) framework. Secondly, we estimate the model parameters, using data for the U.S. during 1994-2004 and for Japan during 1991-2003 and substitute them into our model. Then, we compare both countries estimated demand regime functions, which describe the effect of productivity on demand, and productivity regime functions, showing the effect of demand on productivity in each sector. Our results are summarized as follows. The U.S. rapid GDP growth in the 1990s was characterized by the investment goods sector's high demand growth, which in turn was mainly driven by its high labor productivity growth. The U.S. established a new growth regime, which was caused not by wage indexation to productivity and mass consumption, as appeared during the so-called 'Fordism' period, but by decreasing the investment goods price and increasing investment demand in the consumption goods sector. Moreover, higher export and public expenditure growth for the consumer goods sector was the driving force behind this sector's high growth. As for the Japanese economy, although the investment goods sector also attained rapid productivity growth and could have raised its high demand growth during this period, it was unable to do so. The decreasing investment goods price didn't lead to its high demand growth as it did in the U.S. because the idle stock due to over-accumulation and bad loans caused by the burst of the bubble economy in the early 1990s gave disincentive for firms to invest. But, we should note that deregulating the labor market itself, which leads to an increase in the low-skilled irregular worker, could not produce higher performance without active labor market policies because it brings about low productivity in both the investment goods and the consumer goods sectors.

著者

藤田 真哉

出版者

経済理論学会

雑誌

季刊経済理論

巻号頁・発行日

vol.41, no.2, pp.80-87, 2004

---

The purpose of this paper is to explain how institutional adjustments in the labor market affect the macro-economic stability. We suppose that the institutional adjustments in the labor market consist of three factors: inelasticity of employment, money wage indexation to labor productivity, and money wage indexation to price level. In addition, we shall take into account also the relevance of reserve army effect to the macro-economic stability. In this paper, we adopt a Goodwin-type cycle model. This model, which has its origin in Goodwin (1967), has a characteristic feature in the respect that a business cycle is caused by factors in the labor market rather than those in the good market or in the money market. The model seems therefore to be appropriate for examining the relation between the macro-economic stability and adjustment patterns in the labor market. On the basis of this model, we construct the Goodwin-type model with alternative growth regimes: profit-led growth regime and wage-led growth regime. The former means that large profit share leads high growth, and the latter means that large wage share leads high growth. The difference between these two growth regimes has been analyzed by post-Keynesian economics. According to which growth regime we choose, the effects which institutional adjustments in the labor market have on the macro-economic stability are varied. Some of our results are as follows. First, under profit-led growth the macro-economic system with low elasticity of employment and with low money wage indexation to labor productivity is unstable, but not always so under wage-led growth. Second, either under profit-led growth or wage-led growth sufficiently large money wage indexation to price level destabilizes the macro-economic system. Third, controlling the reserve army effect makes the macro-economic system stable under wage-led growth, but unstable under profit-led growth.