著者

金子 裕一郎

出版者

The Japanese Society for the History of Economic Thought

雑誌

経済学史学会年報 (ISSN:04534786)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.41, no.41, pp.48-57, 2002 (Released:2010-08-05)

参考文献数

13

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This paper deals with three issues which will be considered in terms of waiting, developed as liquidity preference function problems after J. M. Keynes. Firstly, expectation is halved with time expectation in reflective expectation by reinterpretation of Lucas critique, and uncertainty of the reflective expectation formation is considered. Secondly, as an applied example of reflective expectation, it is considered why Keynes used a term of marginal efficiency of capital rather than marginal efficiency of investment. Thirdly, it is shown that the rational expectation formation would not contain expectation formation with waiting in Keynes' meaning.The argument is as follows. In section I, the problem of waiting is discussed as one of expectation formation. Then, our concept of waiting is defined as an expansion of it used in Keynes' General Theory, referring to Hicks' interpretation of liquidity preference function. In section II, Lucas critique is compared with Keynes' famous metaphor of a beauty contest, in order to examine the relationship between waiting and reflective expectation. The basis of the reflective expectation formation is pursued by using Lucas critique. In the traditional interpretation of Keynes, reflective expectation has been thought of in light of the metaphor of a beauty contest only in money market. However, reflective expectation also works in commodity market. While some regarded these problems as self-evident, others failed to deal with appropriately. It explains how they failed to recognize them as problem of action theory and how relevant theories remained to be lacking in their micro-foundation. The metaphor of a beauty contest and the differences between its implications and Lucas critique are also examined. In section III, it is explained that the marginal efficiency of capital plays a different role from marginal efficiency of investment by taking account of reflective expectation.Hence, it will be concluded that waiting could be conceptualized in a way that supports the marginal efficiency of capital as well as liquidity preference function, and that its concept deviates from the rational expectation formation.

著者

金子 裕一郎

出版者

龍谷大学

雑誌

龍谷大学経済学論集 (ISSN:09183418)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.52, no.3, pp.1-14, 2013-03-29