著者

Takanori Honda Sanmei Chen Jun Hata Daigo Yoshida Yoichiro Hirakawa Yoshihiko Furuta Mao Shibata Satoko Sakata Takanari Kitazono Toshiharu Ninomiya

出版者

Japan Atherosclerosis Society

雑誌

Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis (ISSN:13403478)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.61960, (Released:2021-01-22)

参考文献数

33

被引用文献数

22

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Aim: To develop and validate a new risk prediction model for predicting the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in Japanese adults. Methods: A total of 2,454 participants aged 40–84 years without a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were prospectively followed up for 24 years. An incident ASCVD event was defined as the first occurrence of coronary heart disease or atherothrombotic brain infarction. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to construct the prediction model. In addition, a simplified scoring system was translated from the developed prediction model. The model performance was evaluated using Harrell's C statistics, a calibration plot with the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test, and a bootstrap validation procedure. Results: During a median of a 24-year follow-up, 270 participants experienced the first ASCVD event. The predictors of the ASCVD events in the multivariable Cox model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, proteinuria, smoking habits, and regular exercise. The developed models exhibited good discrimination with negligible evidence of overfitting (Harrell's C statistics: 0.786 for the multivariable model and 0.789 for the simplified score) and good calibrations (the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test: P=0.29 for the multivariable model, 0.52 for the simplified score). Conclusion: We constructed a risk prediction model for the development of ASCVD in Japanese adults. This prediction model exhibits great potential as a tool for predicting the risk of ASCVD in clinical practice by enabling the identification of specific risk factors for ASCVD in individual patients.

著者

Mayu Higashioka Satoko Sakata Takanori Honda Jun Hata Daigo Yoshida Yoichiro Hirakawa Mao Shibata Kenichi Goto Takanari Kitazono Haruhiko Osawa Toshiharu Ninomiya

出版者

Japan Atherosclerosis Society

雑誌

Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis (ISSN:13403478)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.51961, (Released:2019-11-11)

参考文献数

39

被引用文献数

48

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Aims: This study aims to investigate the association between serum small dense low-density lipoprotein (sdLDL) cholesterol level and the development of coronary heart disease (CHD) in a Japanese community. Methods: A total of 3,080 participants without prior cardiovascular disease, aged 40 years or older, were followed up for 8 years. The participants were divided into the quartiles of serum sdLDL cholesterol levels. The risk estimates were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: During the follow-up period, 79 subjects developed CHD. Subjects in the highest quartile had a 5.41- fold (95% confidence interval, 2.12–13.82) higher risk of CHD than those in the lowest quartile after controlling for confounders. In the analysis classifying the participants into four groups according to the levels of serum sdLDL cholesterol and serum low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels, the risk of CHD almost doubled in subjects with sdLDL cholesterol of ≥ 32.9 mg/dL (median), regardless of serum LDL cholesterol levels, as compared with subjects with serum sdLDL cholesterol of <32.9 mg/dL and serum LDL cholesterol of <120.1 mg/dL (median). When serum sdLDL cholesterol levels were incorporated into a model with known cardiovascular risk factors, c-statistics was significantly increased (from 0.77 to 0.79; p=0.02), and the net reclassification improvement was also significant (0.40; p<0.001). Conclusions: The present findings suggest that the serum sdLDL cholesterol level is a relevant biomarker for the future development of CHD that offers benefit beyond the serum LDL cholesterol level and a possible therapeutic target to reduce the burden of CHD in a Japanese community.

著者

Takanori Honda Sanmei Chen Jun Hata Daigo Yoshida Yoichiro Hirakawa Yoshihiko Furuta Mao Shibata Satoko Sakata Takanari Kitazono Toshiharu Ninomiya

出版者

Japan Atherosclerosis Society

雑誌

Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis (ISSN:13403478)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.ER61960, (Released:2023-10-24)

著者

Kimitaka Nakamura Daigo Yoshida Takanori Honda Jun Hata Mao Shibata Yoichiro Hirakawa Yoshihiko Furuta Hiro Kishimoto Tomoyuki Ohara Takanari Kitazono Yasuharu Nakashima Toshiharu Ninomiya

出版者

Japan Epidemiological Association

雑誌

Journal of Epidemiology (ISSN:09175040)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.JE20190289, (Released:2020-06-06)

参考文献数

38

被引用文献数

32

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Background: The prevalence of sarcopenia defined by the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS) definition in Asian communities has not been fully addressed. Moreover, few studies have addressed the influence of sarcopenia on mortality.Methods: A total of 1,371 and 1,597 residents aged 65 years or older participated in health surveys in 2012 and 2017. Sarcopenia was determined by the AWGS definition. Factors associated with the presence of sarcopenia were assessed using a logistic regression model in participants in the 2012 survey. Subjects in the 2012 survey were followed-up prospectively for a median of 4.3 years. Mortality risk for subjects with sarcopenia was examined using the Cox proportional hazards model.Results: The crude prevalence of sarcopenia was 7.4% and 6.6% in participants at the 2012 and 2017 surveys, respectively; there was no significant difference between surveys (p = 0.44). The prevalence of sarcopenia increased significantly with age in both sexes (both p for trend < 0.001). Subjects with sarcopenia were more likely to exercise less regularly, to intake less total energy, and to exhibit a disability in activity of daily living than those without. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 2.20 (95% confidence interval, 1.25-3.85) in subjects with sarcopenia, compared to those without.Conclusions: Approximately 7% of older subjects had sarcopenia in a community-dwelling older Japanese population. Moreover, subjects with sarcopenia had an increased mortality risk. Our findings suggest that a public health strategy for sarcopenia is needed to extend healthy life expectancy.