- 著者
- Kunihiro Matsushita Yingying Sang Jingsha Chen Shoshana H. Ballew Michael Shlipak Josef Coresh Carmen A. Peralta Mark Woodward
- 出版者
- The Japanese Circulation Society
- 雑誌
- Circulation Journal (ISSN:13469843)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.CJ-19-0320, (Released:2019-07-19)
- 参考文献数
- 21
- 被引用文献数
- 10
Background:Cardiovascular guidelines include risk prediction models for decision making that lack the capacity to include novel predictors.Methods and Results:We explored a new “predictor patch” approach to calibrating the predicted risk from a base model according to 2 components from outside datasets: (1) the difference in observed vs. expected values of novel predictors and (2) the hazard ratios (HRs) for novel predictors, in a scenario of adding kidney measures for cardiovascular mortality. Using 4 US cohorts (n=54,425) we alternately chose 1 as the base dataset and constructed a base prediction model with traditional predictors for cross-validation. In the 3 other “outside” datasets, we developed a linear regression model with traditional predictors for estimating expected values of glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria and obtained their adjusted HRs of cardiovascular mortality, together constituting a “patch” for adding kidney measures to the base model. The base model predicted cardiovascular mortality well in each cohort (c-statistic 0.78–0.91). The addition of kidney measures using a patch significantly improved discrimination (cross-validated ∆c-statistic 0.006 [0.004–0.008]) to a similar degree as refitting these kidney measures in each base dataset.Conclusions:The addition of kidney measures using our new “predictor patch” approach based on estimates from outside datasets improved cardiovascular mortality prediction based on traditional predictors, providing an option to incorporate novel predictors to an existing prediction model.
- 著者
- Yejin Mok Shoshana H. Ballew Kunihiro Matsushita
- 出版者
- 日本循環器学会
- 雑誌
- Circulation Journal (ISSN:13469843)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.CJ-17-0550, (Released:2017-07-06)
- 参考文献数
- 105
- 被引用文献数
- 10
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is considered a global public health issue. The latest international clinical guideline emphasizes characterization of CKD with both glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria. CKD is closely related to cardiac disease and increases the risk of adverse outcomes among patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Indeed, numerous studies have investigated the association of CKD measures with prognosis among patients with CVD, but most of them have focused on kidney function, with limited data on albuminuria. Consequently, although there are several risk prediction tools for patients with CVD incorporating kidney function, to our knowledge, none of them include albuminuria. Moreover, the selection of the kidney function measure (e.g., serum creatinine, creatinine-based estimated GFR, or blood urea nitrogen) in these tools is heterogeneous. In this review, we will summarize these aspects, as well as the burden of CKD in patients with CVD, in the current literature. We will also discuss potential mechanisms linking CKD to secondary events and consider future research directions. Given their clinical and public health importance, for CVD we will focus on 2 representative cardiac diseases: myocardial infarction and heart failure.