著者

渋谷 陽二 山内 賀喜 小澤 守

出版者

関西大学 社会安全研究センター

雑誌

社会安全学研究 = Safety science review (ISSN:21860815)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.10, pp.43-52, 2020-03-31

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Heinrich's law has been well known as the statistical law of labor accident which suggests that one seriously injured disaster of the workplace hazard can be statistically obtained in the basis of the certain number of disasters without any injury. In this paper, the process of the labor accident is regarded as the spatio-temporal evolutional problem from the complex system. Cellular automata (CA) method is applied to solve this process as a metaphor model under the appropriate local rule. The effects of initial existence ratio of the first level disaster without any injury and kinds of local rules employed in the CA are discussed with much emphasis. Then, the probability of each level accident as the results of the pattern dynamics was assessed, being compared with the humanistic Heinrich's law. It is found that the initial existence ratio of the first level disaster of around 60% suits this experienced law. The spatio and temporal evolution behaviors were obtained by considering the level transition probability based on the normal probability distribution. The averaging occurence ratio of each level accident for whole the region is related to the long-term averaging silimar to the statistical thermodynamic ergodic property. The magnitude of damage by each level accident was defined as the power-law scaling and then the risk assessments were finally performed for the convergent states of spatio-temporal evolution.