著者

沖村 孝 杉本 剛康

出版者

日本自然災害学会

雑誌

自然災害科学 (ISSN:02866021)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.13, no.3, pp.297-313, 1995-01-31

被引用文献数

1

---

A method for estimating the probab1e damage caused by heavy rainfall is proposed that considers the occurrence rate of disasters caused by natural phenomena and the distribution of things that must be protected. Flood and mountain slope failures are regarded as natural phenomena in our study, and the population density is seen as a thing to be protected. This method was applied to the base of the mountain area along the Sumiyoshi River in Kobe City which had experienced flooding and mountain slope failures in 1938 and 1967. The results obtained for the occurrence rates of natura1 phenomena reflect the effects of the counter-measures taken after 1938,as well as urban development that has spread along the base of the Rokko Mountains.