著者

清水 勝彦

出版者

研究・イノベーション学会

雑誌

研究技術計画 (ISSN:09147020)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.24, no.1, pp.71-83, 2009-08-10

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In a highly uncertain and changing environment, the capability to identify major changes in the external environment, quickly commit resources to new courses of action in response to those changes, and recognize and act promptly when it is time to halt or reverse existing resource commitments is critical yet difficult. The challenge results from the substantial uncertainties inherent in making strategic decisions as well as from psychological and organizational biases that affect the attention, assessments, and actions of decision-makers in ways that prevent them from recognizing problems and acting in a timely fashion. Being careful and rational is important but not sufficient. I show that managers may become unconsciously trapped in a vicious cycle of insensitivity, self-serving interpretation, and inaction. I recommend five practical steps for avoiding such problems. I stress that managers and organizations should be prepared and proactive to overcome the biases, to avoid becoming trapped in the vicious cycle of rigidity, and to cope effectively with the uncertainties of a dynamic environment.