著者

藤井 敏嗣

出版者

特定非営利活動法人日本火山学会

雑誌

火山 (ISSN:04534360)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.61, no.1, pp.211-223, 2016

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The main stream of the researches for prediction of volcanic eruption in Japan has been promoted through the national program which was established in 1974. The research has been advanced based on the development of basic volcanology and on the accumulation of practical knowledge obtained through the occasional volcanic eruptions. As it was shown in the review of the recent volcanic eruptions in Japan and the measures taken to mitigate the disasters caused by these eruptions, the prediction of volcanic eruptions in Japan is, however, on the stage of empirical pattern recognition. It is still far away from prediction based on the models of the underlying dynamics of volcano. Even in such situation, public society asks when and where eruption will occur, and how long the eruption will continue. It is difficult to answer these questions; however it is necessary to provide useful information based on the monitoring of eruption and the application of the available knowledge for the mitigation of volcanic disaster. In this context, several issues which might be concerned in the research of prediction of volcanic eruption and in developing the measures to mitigate volcanic disasters are described.