著者

中溝 知樹

出版者

国立保健医療科学院

雑誌

保健医療科学 (ISSN:13476459)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.61, pp.488-489, 2012-10

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Although the SIR model is useful for describing the pandemics of influenza, it is inappropriate for describing the epidemics of seasonal influenza, in which several subtypes circulate concurrently. Therefore, we aimed to build a mathematical model that describes the epidemics of seasonal influenza. We extended the conventional SIR model by dividing the population in terms of the three subtypes of influenza: type A H1N1, type A H3N2, and type B. In addition, we incorporated the viral interference and time-lags of the onset among the subtypes. In this way, we built a model that can predict the concurrent epidemics of the subtypes by numerical calculation using surveillance data at the initial phase of the seasons. We applied the model to the epidemics of seasonal influenza in Japan from 2002 through 2008. Assuming moderate viral interference, the model predicted the real epidemics reasonably. Because the model is able to predict the epidemic at the initial phase of a season, it may be valuable in public health.