著者

陳 兆昱 Chen Zhaoyu 符 晨 Fu Chen 佐桑 健太郎 Sakuwa Kentaro

出版者

青山学院大学国際政治経済学会

雑誌

青山国際政経論集 (ISSN:02895129)

巻号頁・発行日

no.107, pp.21-37, 2021-11-20

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同盟国の兵力を多く駐留させると抑止力は高まるのだろうか。同盟による拡大抑止が配備兵力の規模によって強化されるかどうかはこれまで実証的に検証されていなかった。この研究は駐留米軍の規模が大きくなると紛争に巻き込まれるリスクが低下するのかを定量的なデータを用いて分析した。米国の同盟国を比較した統計分析の結果,配備兵力が多い国ほど紛争のターゲットになるリスクが減少するという明確な証拠は見つからなかった。また,イラク戦争時には多くの同盟国で駐留兵力の削減がされたにもかかわらず紛争リスクが高まった傾向も特に見られず,米軍の大規模兵力を駐留させることと紛争リスクに明確な関係があるとは言えなかった。分析結果は,通常戦力の大規模部隊を配備したからといって必ずしも拡大抑止が強化されるとは限らないということを示唆している。今後こうした実証研究を積み重ねて沖縄など米軍基地政策も再考していく必要があるだろう。

著者

佐桑 健太郎

出版者

一般財団法人 日本国際政治学会

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2017, no.189, pp.189_33-189_48, 2017-10-23 (Released:2018-12-19)

参考文献数

46

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Why are some regions more peaceful than others? Some regions are particularly plagued by traditional power politics and political tensions, while the danger of war between major actors has significantly declined in other regions. The conventional literature would answer the question from a dyadic perspective—a region with many states with certain set of traits, such as democracy, should be peaceful. However, it is ultimately an empirical question whether the prevalence of power politics and conflict can be solely explained by the type of states and dyads in a region. I argue that the nature of international interactions is shaped by regional-level environment. Due to local security externalities, dyadic politics and conflict is dependent on conditions in a local neighborhood. More specifically, this study focuses on the role of regional-level alliance structure. A region can be situated in various types of alliance configuration depending on the climate of global geopolitics. I argue that conflict is unlikely in a region in which a global power establishes hegemonic domination through alliance ties with local states. The presence of an external global power dominating a region provides a local enforcement mechanism and reassurance for local states, which in turn reduces hostile interactions among local states. To examine how the regional-level conditions influence dyadic-level politics among local states, this paper empirical analyzes political events data (Integrated Data for Events Analysis) applying multilevel modeling, aiming at contributing to the literature by explicitly modeling the influence of regional-level variables on local politics beyond militarized disputes. Empirical analysis revealed that a regionally shared “patron” can promote peace between local states. However, the effect of regional hierarchy turned out to be indirect. Regional dominance structured by an external global power does not exert an overarching influence over an entire region by shifting the region-specific intercept. Rather, the regional-level global power domination in terms of defense pacts particularly influences powerful local states while not quite reducing hostility among minor local states. Thus, international conflict and hostility is indirectly constrained in a region under hegemonic domination by a global power. This study has empirically explored an argument that it is fruitful to go beyond a purely dyadic analysis of international conflict. The independent effect of a spatial environment means that even similar dyads may behave differently depending on the conditions surrounding them. It shows a need to reexamine some of the important findings about international conflict from a spatial perspective, taking into account macro-regional contexts within which states operate. Moreover, the introduction of regional contexts potentially would bridge a gap between quantitative studies of international conflict and area-specific studies.