著者

宮武 信春 森 正三 古田 勝久

出版者

The Society of Instrument and Control Engineers

雑誌

計測自動制御学会論文集 (ISSN:04534654)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, no.4, pp.385-392, 1978-08-30 (Released:2009-03-27)

参考文献数

13

被引用文献数

1 1

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We developed the method which recursively identify the multi-attribute utility function based on the observation data which consist of the paired comparison questions and answers. In this method, the weights (w1, w2, …, wn) of additive utility function U(a)=∑ni=1wi·ui(ai) are regarded as random variables and the gaussian sum approximation method is used to estimate the posteriori probability density function of the weights conditioned by the data of comparative judgements. In order to test the applicability of this method, we applied it to the following two examples, (1) estimation of the value of time, (2) evaluation of the psychological burden of trip route.

著者

宮武 信春

出版者

公益社団法人 計測自動制御学会

雑誌

計測と制御 (ISSN:04534662)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.30, no.7, pp.616-622, 1991-07-10 (Released:2009-11-26)

参考文献数

7

著者

宮武 信春 猪口 孝

出版者

The Society of Instrument and Control Engineers

雑誌

計測自動制御学会論文集 (ISSN:04534654)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, no.3, pp.236-241, 1978-06-30 (Released:2009-03-27)

参考文献数

22

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It is commonly belived that a bilateral negotiation between two countries can reveal its whole content only after publication of the documents explained by the responsible officials, for it is difficult to procure data on a countory's internal motivation affecting the decision in the negotiation. Not denying this fact, however, we have attempted to show that a certain type of negotiation can be modeled on the basis of publicly available data. To get insight into the pattern of conflicts in this new era of oceanic territories, we have chosen the fishery negotiation between Japan and the Soviet Union. We have made the state space equation model in modern control theory based on the negotiation data 1957∼1976, and we have forecasted the result of negotiation 1977. The results shows that the model's predictive performance is remarkably good. We have identified the five majore structual components of the negotiation which characterize as the politics of decrementalism.