著者

大藤 建太 山口 順之 星野 和巳 坂本 雅昭

出版者

The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan

雑誌

電気学会論文誌. B, 電力・エネルギー部門誌 = The transactions of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. B, A publication of Power and Energy Society (ISSN:03854213)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.128, no.9, pp.1091-1098, 2008-09-01

被引用文献数

2 2

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In this paper, we studied how to forecast next-day hydropower energy expected output based on the past rainfall record in the reference area. Tank model, which has been conventionally applied for this type of forecast has been improved by employing Kalman Filter stepwise estimation, to accommodate seasonal and yearly variations of rainfall water runoff conditions. Our Kalman Filter Tank Model (KF-Tank Model) yielded a broader choice of parameters while maintaining acceptable level of average forecast errors of about +/-0.05[PU] per forecast period. Further, it is shown that the error correction mechanism of the KF Tank Model can remain robust for snow-falling and snow-melting seasons, without calling for parameter revisions of the model.