著者

尾羽 秀晃 遠藤 聖也 松尾 雄司 玄海 亨 長尾 吉輝

出版者

一般社団法人 エネルギー・資源学会

雑誌

エネルギー・資源学会論文誌 (ISSN:24330531)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.43, no.4, pp.162-171, 2022-07-10 (Released:2022-07-10)

参考文献数

32

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Increasing variable renewable energies with zero marginal cost cause the decline of wholesale electricity prices and undermine their own value by “cannibalization effect”. While capital costs of renewable energies are expected to decline, their income is also to decrease because of declined wholesale electricity prices. This study integrated GIS (geographic information system) model that assesses business feasibility into an optimal power generation mix model that assess wholesale electricity prices. By developing an integrated model, it is possible to assess potential installation capacity of solar and wind energy by considering both economic rationality and land use restrictions. In the case of Japan, this study revealed that increasing solar and wind energies cause the significant decline of wholesale electricity prices in specific electric network area such as Hokkaido. Even if capital costs of these energies decrease through learning effect, economic potential of installed renewable capacities is significantly limited if business feasibility is considered. Thus, the decline of electricity prices by cannibalization effect can seriously stagnate installation of both solar and wind energies. This study implies that further cost reduction faster than previous trend is needed to realize “subsidy-free” energy sources when cannibalization effect is considered.

著者

松尾 雄司 遠藤 聖也 永富 悠 柴田 善朗 小宮山 涼一 藤井 康正

出版者

一般社団法人 エネルギー・資源学会

雑誌

エネルギー・資源学会論文誌 (ISSN:24330531)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.40, no.3, pp.49-58, 2019 (Released:2019-05-10)

参考文献数

29

被引用文献数

2

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In this paper, we used an optimal power generation mix (OPGM) model, as well as meteorological data from 2000 to 2017, to assess the cost of achieving 100% renewable electricity mix in 2050 in Japan. Although the potentials of variable renewable energies, such as wind and solar PV, have been estimated to be large in Japan, grid-related system costs become significant in the cases with very high shares of variable renewables. Particularly, two factors affect the overall costs: The cumulative installed capacity of offshore-wind power, and the required capacity of electricity storage systems. The former is dependent on the curtailment ratio of onshore-wind and solar PV, whereas the latter is determined by the short-time “windless and sunless” factor, i.e. the maximum number of successive days with very small wind and solar power output. The analyses presented in this study highlight the necessity of using long-term meteorological data when estimating the economics of high penetration of variable renewables, as well as the importance of considering the risk of power supply disruption.