著者

尾羽 秀晃 遠藤 聖也 松尾 雄司 玄海 亨 長尾 吉輝

出版者

一般社団法人 エネルギー・資源学会

雑誌

エネルギー・資源学会論文誌 (ISSN:24330531)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.43, no.4, pp.162-171, 2022-07-10 (Released:2022-07-10)

参考文献数

32

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Increasing variable renewable energies with zero marginal cost cause the decline of wholesale electricity prices and undermine their own value by “cannibalization effect”. While capital costs of renewable energies are expected to decline, their income is also to decrease because of declined wholesale electricity prices. This study integrated GIS (geographic information system) model that assesses business feasibility into an optimal power generation mix model that assess wholesale electricity prices. By developing an integrated model, it is possible to assess potential installation capacity of solar and wind energy by considering both economic rationality and land use restrictions. In the case of Japan, this study revealed that increasing solar and wind energies cause the significant decline of wholesale electricity prices in specific electric network area such as Hokkaido. Even if capital costs of these energies decrease through learning effect, economic potential of installed renewable capacities is significantly limited if business feasibility is considered. Thus, the decline of electricity prices by cannibalization effect can seriously stagnate installation of both solar and wind energies. This study implies that further cost reduction faster than previous trend is needed to realize “subsidy-free” energy sources when cannibalization effect is considered.

著者

大槻 貴司 尾羽 秀晃 松尾 雄司 森本 壮一

出版者

一般社団法人 エネルギー・資源学会

雑誌

エネルギー・資源学会論文誌 (ISSN:24330531)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.44, no.3, pp.115-125, 2023-05-10 (Released:2023-05-10)

参考文献数

14

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The authors’ previous assessment indicated that the marginal electricity cost in 2050 in Japan is more than doubled in an energy system based on a 100% renewable power supply compared to the cost-optimal system. However, some assumptions may be conservative given the recent developments, including the cost of variable renewable energy (VRE) and energy storage technologies and the availability of dispatchable renewable power generation (such as biomass-fired). Therefore, to test the robustness of the previous assessment, this study conducts a sensitivity analysis with a focus on these factors, using an energy system optimization model with a detailed temporal resolution. Simulation results imply that the high marginal electricity cost in the “100% renewable power system” is partially due to the costs of managing VRE’s seasonality. Low-cost energy storage and dispatchable renewable power plants can curb the marginal electricity cost. However, the results also suggest that the marginal cost in these sensitivity cases remains high compared to the cost-optimal system, still posing economic challenges to the system based on a 100% renewable power supply.

著者

松尾 雄司 遠藤 聖也 永富 悠 柴田 善朗 小宮山 涼一 藤井 康正

出版者

一般社団法人 エネルギー・資源学会

雑誌

エネルギー・資源学会論文誌 (ISSN:24330531)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.40, no.3, pp.49-58, 2019 (Released:2019-05-10)

参考文献数

29

被引用文献数

2

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In this paper, we used an optimal power generation mix (OPGM) model, as well as meteorological data from 2000 to 2017, to assess the cost of achieving 100% renewable electricity mix in 2050 in Japan. Although the potentials of variable renewable energies, such as wind and solar PV, have been estimated to be large in Japan, grid-related system costs become significant in the cases with very high shares of variable renewables. Particularly, two factors affect the overall costs: The cumulative installed capacity of offshore-wind power, and the required capacity of electricity storage systems. The former is dependent on the curtailment ratio of onshore-wind and solar PV, whereas the latter is determined by the short-time “windless and sunless” factor, i.e. the maximum number of successive days with very small wind and solar power output. The analyses presented in this study highlight the necessity of using long-term meteorological data when estimating the economics of high penetration of variable renewables, as well as the importance of considering the risk of power supply disruption.

著者

松尾 雄司

出版者

一般社団法人 日本原子力学会

雑誌

日本原子力学会誌ATOMOΣ (ISSN:18822606)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.63, no.7, pp.507-508, 2021 (Released:2021-07-10)

被引用文献数

1

著者

碇井 良平 飯野 友美子 松尾 雄司

出版者

一般社団法人 エネルギー・資源学会

雑誌

エネルギー・資源学会論文誌 (ISSN:24330531)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.43, no.5, pp.186-196, 2022-09-12 (Released:2022-09-12)

参考文献数

42

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In Myanmar, it is unclear how long the political turmoil caused by the military coup will last. However, one of the keys to sustainable economic development of the country and living standard improvement of the people continues to be tackling the increasing demand for electricity. This requires Myanmar’s government to construct an electricity supply system based on long-term planning and to consider the installation of international interconnection lines under the situation where many countries is starting to go forward to decarbonization. Therefore, this paper illustrates the preferable energy mix for Myanmar in 2050 from the perspective of the 3Es (economic efficiency, environmental sustainability and energy security) in multiple scenarios, setting different carbon prices and hydropower potentials for Myanmar. In conclusion, Myanmar should strongly promote hydropower development, including large-scale power plants, which will contribute to ensuring the 3Es, and also promote the development of international interconnection lines with neighboring Thailand, which will improve the fiscal revenue from the electricity export.

著者

木村 謙仁 柴田 智文 松尾 雄司 村上 朋子

出版者

一般社団法人 日本原子力学会

雑誌

日本原子力学会和文論文誌 (ISSN:13472879)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.21, no.1, pp.15-26, 2022 (Released:2022-02-15)

参考文献数

20

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In this study, we perform model analyses assuming the Japanese power supply portfolio in 2050 to evaluate the economic efficiency of nuclear power generation under mass introduction of variable renewable energy (VRE) ― such as solar PV and wind ― and of hydrogen power generation in 2050. As a result, this study shows that even if the unit cost of VRE falls significantly by 2050, not only existing nuclear power plants, but also new construction, will have economic efficiency. Its benefit would become much larger when 100% carbon-free generation is mandated, but in that case, the role of nuclear energy as the base load power generation would be changed. On the other hand, in the case where hydrogen power generation will be deployed, the nuclear energy would be smaller than those in other 100% carbon-free cases, but its base load operation would be maintained.

著者

大塚 久雄 松尾 雄司 鈴木 和則

出版者

一般社団法人 日本原子力学会

雑誌

日本原子力学会 年会・大会予稿集 2003年秋の大会

巻号頁・発行日

pp.469, 2003 (Released:2003-12-17)

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高レベル放射性廃棄物(以下HLW)固化体容積の小型化による処分空間減容効果を調べるため、有限要素汎用解析コードABAQUSを使用してニアフィールドの熱解析し、高充填条件を検討した。

著者

大槻 貴司 尾羽 秀晃 川上 恭章 下郡 けい 水野 有智 森本 壮一 松尾 雄司

出版者

一般社団法人 電気学会

雑誌

電気学会論文誌B(電力・エネルギー部門誌) (ISSN:03854213)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.142, no.7, pp.334-346, 2022-07-01 (Released:2022-07-01)

参考文献数

53

被引用文献数

2

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This study investigated cost-effective energy mix for realizing net zero CO2 emissions in Japan by 2050, employing an energy system optimization model with hourly electricity balances. The detailed temporal resolution enables the model to capture intermittency of variable renewable energy (VRE) and costs of system integration measures. Siting constraints on VRE, such as prohibiting solar PV and onshore wind developments in forest and offshore wind developments inside fishery rights area, are incorporated in the model to reflect the environmental protection and social acceptance perspectives. Simulation results imply that a well-balanced power generation mix, combining renewables, nuclear, gas-fired with carbon capture and storage, as well as ammonia-fired, would contribute to curbing mitigation costs. In contrast, a simulation case with very high VRE penetration poses economic challenges. Average shadow price of electricity in 2050 in a 100% renewables case (RE100) is projected to be more than doubled from a reference case which is based on middle-of-the-road assumptions. Marginal CO2 abatement cost in 2050 increases from 49,200 JPY/tCO2 in the reference case to 75,300 JPY/tCO2 in the RE100 case. The economic viability of high VRE penetration is improved by relaxing the siting constraints, although it may raise environmental and social concerns.

著者

深井 恭子 小松 恒太郎 松尾 雄司 林 健太郎 苅谷 嘉之 宮城 拓也 山口 さやか 照屋 操 高橋 健造

出版者

日本皮膚科学会西部支部

雑誌

西日本皮膚科 (ISSN:03869784)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.81, no.2, pp.115-119, 2019

被引用文献数

1

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<p>症例 1:87 歳,男性。18 歳時に L 型ハンセン病と診断された。5 年前から左足背に皮膚潰瘍があり,次第に隆起してきた。初診時,左足背に腫瘤があり,病理組織検査にて有棘細胞癌と診断し,左下腿切断術を施行した。症例 2:54 歳,男性。20 歳で L 型ハンセン病と診断された。43 歳頃より右第1 趾に皮膚潰瘍があり,47 歳時,病理組織検査にて有棘細胞癌と診断し右下腿切断術を施行した。30 代から左足底には胼胝があり,52 歳頃に皮膚潰瘍が出現した。54 歳時,潰瘍が増大し,病理組織検査にて有棘細胞癌と診断し,左第1~3 趾切断術を行った。術後約 3 カ月で術後創部から再発,肺に転移し永眠した。ハンセン病の慢性潰瘍は瘢痕癌の発生母地となる。瘢痕癌は他の有棘細胞癌より予後不良であり,ハンセン病の後遺症による神経障害で生じた難治性潰瘍は注意深く経過観察する必要がある。</p>

著者

松尾 雄司

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本稿ではまず既存の試算例を参考としてエネルギー源別の発電コスト評価の問題を検討・整理した上で,それを用いて2030 年の日本のエネルギーミックスに焦点を当て,その経済影響について評価を行った。2030 年に原子力発電比率を0%,15%,20 ~ 25% とするシナリオについて評価した場合,0% シナリオでは実質電力価格が2010 年比で2.1 ~ 2.6 倍程度まで上昇し,それに伴いGDP が減少する。特に輸送機械を中心とした輸出産業での生産・雇用減少が著しい。但しこの電力価格上昇の要因のうち最も大きなものはCO.削減コストの上昇であり,従ってその影響は原子力のみでなく,気候変動問題への対処に係る政治的・経済的な状況に強く依存する。また脱原子力の経済影響は,原子力と並ぶ低炭素電源である再生可能エネルギー発電のコスト低減やその導入可能性,国内生産比率等にも依存する。このため我々は常に長期の将来を見据え,明確なプランのもとに将来のエネルギーミックスを考えるとともに,各種エネルギー源の動向を適切に把握し,先入観にとらわれることなく,常に誤りのない判断を下す努力が必要である。