著者

Hiroshi Yoshikura

出版者

国立感染症研究所 Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases 編集委員会

雑誌

Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases (ISSN:13446304)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.69, no.3, pp.272-272, 2016 (Released:2016-05-20)

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Volume 69, no. 2, p. 97–108, 2016. Page 107, Figure 11 should appear as shown below.

著者

Hiroshi Yoshikura Fumihiko Takeuchi

出版者

国立感染症研究所 Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases 編集委員会

雑誌

Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases (ISSN:13446304)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.JJID.2015.670, (Released:2016-05-09)

参考文献数

23

被引用文献数

1 1

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The size distribution of the local infection cluster (LIC), a group of patients reported from the same prefecture without interruption in successive weeks, was scale-free for infections that are transmitted from person to person (e.g., measles, rubella, syphilis and HIV/AIDS). For infections that never spread from person to person, the distribution was entirely random. The size distribution for measles, rubella, syphilis and HIV/AIDS could be simulated successfully by random coin tossing with probabilities that were higher for highly populated prefectures.The size distribution of the population in the large municipalities (>120,000) as well as that of LICs were found scale free. As the number of patients per prefecture was correlated with an equation P=kNm, where m was 1.38 for syphilis, 1.63 for HIV/AIDS and 2 for measles or rubella, the frequency distribution of N1.38, N1.6 and N2, where N was population of municipalities, were compared with the frequency distributions of LIC sizes of syphilis, HIV/AIDS, measles and rubella. The frequency distribution of LICs, particularly those of measles and rubella during the large epidemic years, was close to the frequency distribution of Nm. The analysis suggested that LICs were products of stochastic events under the influence of the municipality population size.

著者

Hiroshi Yoshikura

出版者

National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases Editorial Committee

雑誌

Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases (ISSN:13446304)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.JJID.2018.228, (Released:2018-09-28)

参考文献数

4

被引用文献数

2

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The frequency of the ages of the HIV/AIDS deaths and that of the patients detected before or after the development of AIDS followed normal distribution. The median of HIV/AIDS deaths was 40-44 years in 1995-1998 and 50-54 years in 2014-2016, while the median of detection of the infection as “HIV” or as “AIDS” was constantly 25-29 years; it implied that the survival time of the HIV/AIDS patients became longer by 10 years in the past twenty odd years. The lengthening of the survival time could have been attributable to introduction of HIV/AIDS therapy, such as HAART. Importantly, however, during the same period, the life span of Japanese population was lengthened by near 10 years. Under the assumption that HIV/AIDS patients died 20 years after detection of the infection, the total number of the deaths was 1,446 in 1990-2016, which was close to the total number in Vital Statistics during the same period 1,532.

著者

Hiroshi Yoshikura

出版者

国立感染症研究所 Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases 編集委員会

雑誌

Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases (ISSN:13446304)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.JJID.2014.039, (Released:2014-11-25)

参考文献数

12

被引用文献数

3 8

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This article reviews Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance data from 1985 to 2011. It revealed that heterosexual males are more prone to be detected as “AIDS case”, while male homosexuals and females are detected more as “HIV case” irrespectively of sex, age, infection route, residential area and nationality; and probability of detection as “AIDS case” increased with advance of age irrespective of sex and infection route. Interpretation of the data requires further information on clinical latency of AIDS that could be different depending on the infection routes, different sex, and different ages; nature of the acute phase syndrome; and factors that enhance it, such as, route and dose of infection; and mucosal immunity involved in sexually transmitted HIV/AIDS infection and influence of aging and sex on it.

著者

Hiroshi Yoshikura

出版者

National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases Editorial Committee

雑誌

Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases (ISSN:13446304)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.JJID.2015.420, (Released:2016-01-08)

参考文献数

10

被引用文献数

2 5

著者

Hiroshi Yoshikura

出版者

National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases Editorial Committee

雑誌

Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases (ISSN:13446304)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.72, no.6, pp.359-367, 2019 (Released:2019-11-21)

参考文献数

17

被引用文献数

1 2

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From 1995 to 2000, the mortality rates of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) patients < 54 years of age have declined; however, since 2000, deaths of HIV/AIDS patients aged > 55 have started to increase. Although deaths directly linked to infections have declined since 2005, those related to malignancy, encephalopathy, interstitial pneumonia, wasting syndrome, etc. persisted. In 10 years from 1999–2004 to 2010–2017, the age at death shifted by 5 years towards an older age in the general population and in patients with HIV/AIDS (mainly males), adult T-cell leukemia, or Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Among these, HIV/AIDS patients and the general population exhibited an unequivocal gender difference. As of 2011–2016, the median of the deaths of the HIV/AIDS patients was 52.5 years for males and 70 years for females, while the median of the deaths of the general population was 75 years for males and 85 years for females. Hence, male HIV/AIDS patients died 22.5 years earlier and female HIV/AIDS patients 15 years earlier than did the general population. A common denominator of HIV/AIDS-related deaths and deaths among the general population could be CD4+T cells as these cells are primary targets of HIV, and a decline in naïve CD4+T cell count is a hallmark of aging.

著者

Hiroshi Yoshikura

出版者

National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases Editorial Committee

雑誌

Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases (ISSN:13446304)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.72, no.1, pp.23-30, 2019-01-31 (Released:2019-01-23)

参考文献数

16

被引用文献数

3 7

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In Japan, HIV infection is classified as “HIV” or “AIDS” depending upon whether the infection was detected before or after the development of AIDS. In male homosexuals, in the plot of the number of “AIDS” notified annually versus the that of “HIV” notified annually, the plot fell on a straight line with a slope close to 1. When the number of “HIV” no longer increased, that of “AIDS” also stopped increasing. The number of “HIV” notified in one region or age group was correlated with that of other regions or age groups, respectively. However, no such correlation was observed among male heterosexuals. “HIV” was detected more frequently among male homosexuals and females than among male heterosexuals. The rate of “AIDS” detection increased with age in all infection categories. Our analysis, supported by findings of other studies, suggested that the higher rate of “HIV” detection among male homosexuals and females was attributed to the increased risk of receptive sexual intercourse, while the higher rate of “AIDS” detection among the elderly people was attributed to immunological senescence.

著者

Hiroshi Yoshikura

出版者

National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases Editorial Committee

雑誌

Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases (ISSN:13446304)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.JJID.2018.421, (Released:2019-04-26)

参考文献数

7

被引用文献数

1

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The number of eaters and that of patients per outbreak followed lognormal distribution in food poisonings caused by microbes while it followed scale-free distribution in food poisoning caused by plant or animal toxins. Attack rates of the individual outbreaks were distributed continuously and almost linearly from >0 to 1 for all the food poisonings, i.e., they could not be represented by median and standard deviation. For monitoring of the number of patients and the attack rate in individual outbreaks simultaneously, the number of patients was plotted in the x-axis in the logarithmic scale against the attack rate in the y-axis in the normal scale. There emerged plots characterized by repeating arcs assuming shape of a butterfly with extended wings viewed from above, which was called “backbone configuration”. The butterfly-shaped plot patterns were generally stable over time, but variable depending on pathogens, implicated facilities and their combinations. The backbone configuration was reproduced by assuming that the number of patients per outbreak was distributed continuously from 1 to the number of eaters per outbreak.

著者

Hiroshi Yoshikura

出版者

National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases Editorial Committee

雑誌

Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases (ISSN:13446304)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.JJID.2018.183, (Released:2018-09-28)

参考文献数

16

被引用文献数

7

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In Japan, HIV infection is classified as “HIV” or “AIDS” depending upon whether the infection was detected before or after development of AIDS. For male homosexuals, in the plot of the number of “AIDS” versus the number of “HIV”, the plots fell on a straight line with a slope close to 1. When the number of “HIV” stopped increasing, that of “AIDS” stopped increasing. The number of “HIV” in one region or in one age group was correlated with that of other regions or that of other age groups, respectively. No such correlation was detected for male heterosexuals. Male homosexuals and females were detected more as “HIV” than male heterosexuals. Detection as “AIDS” increased with age in all the infection categories. Our analysis supported by others suggested that the higher rate of detection as “HIV” among male homosexuals and females than among male heterosexuals was attributable to higher risk of the receptive sexual intercourse, and the higher incidence of “AIDS” among elderlies to immunological senescence.