- 著者
- ZHAO Haikun WU Liguang WANG Chao KLOTZBACH Philip J.
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- 気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2019-039, (Released:2019-03-11)
- 被引用文献数
- 8
Most studies have focused on variations of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency, intensity, and track over the western North Pacific (WNP), while variability of WNP TC season onset date (TCSO) has been less studied. Recent research has indicated a close association between WNP TCSO and sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean and the tropical central-eastern Pacific. This study finds the relationship between TCSO and SST underwent an interdecadal change in the late 1990s, likely due to a climate shift that occurred around that time. An observed significant correlation between TCSO and SST before the late 1990s and has been insignificant since that time. It was confrimed by the fact that ENSO positively correlates at 0.46 with TCSO from 1965-1999 (significant at the 95 % level), while the correlation becomes insignificant (0.16) during 1998-2016. Further analysis suggests that the close association between TCSO and SST is robust only for major El Niño events, with consistently extreme late TCSO following major El Niños during the satellite era. Accompanying the decay of major El Niños, tropical equatorial easterly anomalies in the WNP are driven by a Matsuno-Gill-type response to the specific SST anomaly pattern over the tropical Indo-Pacific sector. This in turn induces an anomalous anticyclone, anomalous westerly vertical wind shear, reduced mid-level moisture and suppressed convection over the WNP basin – all of which are unfavorable for WNP TCs, resulting in delayed TCSO following major El Niño events. These inter-decadal changes in the inter-annual correlation between TCSO and ENSO are largely due to the changing influence of moderate El Niño events on TCSO before and after the late 1990s. This study improves understanding of the ENSO-TC relationship, which should aid seasonal outlooks of WNP TC activity.
- 著者
- Wang Chao Jiang Heng Zhu Yi Guo Yingying Gan Yong Tian Qingfeng Lou Yiling Cao Shiyi Lu Zuxun
- 出版者
- 日本疫学会
- 雑誌
- Journal of Epidemiology (ISSN:09175040)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- 2021
- 被引用文献数
- 2
<p><b>Background:</b> Increasing number of studies has suggested the time to first cigarette after waking (TTFC) have significant positive effect on respiratory diseases. However, few of them are focused on Chinese population. This study aims to estimate the impact of TTFC on the prevalence of chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) in Chinese elderly and explore the association in different sub-populations.</p><p><b>Methods:</b> Cross-sectional data of demographic characteristics, living environment, smoking-related variables, and CRD were drawn from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey in 2018. Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the association of the TTFC with the prevalence of CRD.</p><p><b>Results:</b> This study includes 13208 subjects aged 52 years and older, with a mean age of 85.3 years. Of them, 3779 participants are ex- or current smokers (44.9% had the TTFC ≤30 minutes, 55.1% >30 minutes) and 1503 have suffered from CRD. Compared with non-smokers, participants with TTFC ≤30 minutes seemed to have higher prevalence of CRD (OR 1.97; 95% CI, 1.65-2.35) than those with TTFC >30 minutes (OR 1.70; 95% CI, 1.44-2.00), although the difference was statistically insignificant (<i>P<sub>interaction</sub></i>=0.12). Compared with TTFC >30 minutes, TTFC ≤30 minutes could drive a higher prevalence of CRD among female participants, those aged 90 years and older, urban residents, and those ex-smokers (<i>P<sub>interaction</sub></i><0.05).</p><p><b>Conclusions:</b> Shorter TTFC relates to higher prevalences of CRD in Chinese older females, those aged 90 years and older, urban residents, and ex-smokers. Delaying TTFC might particially reduce its detrimental impact on respiratory disease in these specific subpopulations.</p>