著者
Shinya KOBAYASHI Yukinari OTA Yayoi HARADA Ayataka EBITA Masami MORIYA Hirokatsu ONODA Kazutoshi ONOGI Hirotaka KAMAHORI Chiaki KOBAYASHI Hirokazu ENDO Kengo MIYAOKA Kiyotoshi TAKAHASHI
出版者
(公社)日本気象学会
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.93, no.1, pp.5-48, 2015 (Released:2015-03-18)
参考文献数
128
被引用文献数
213 689

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) conducted the second Japanese global atmospheric reanalysis, called the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis or JRA-55. It covers the period from 1958, when regular radiosonde observations began on a global basis. JRA-55 is the first comprehensive reanalysis that has covered the last half-century since the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 45-year Reanalysis (ERA-40), and is the first one to apply four-dimensional variational analysis to this period. The main objectives of JRA-55 were to address issues found in previous reanalyses and to produce a comprehensive atmospheric dataset suitable for studying multidecadal variability and climate change. This paper describes the observations, data assimilation system, and forecast model used to produce JRA-55 as well as the basic characteristics of the JRA-55 product. JRA-55 has been produced with the TL319 version of JMA’s operational data assimilation system as of December 2009, which was extensively improved since the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25). It also uses several newly available and improved past observations. The resulting reanalysis products are considerably better than the JRA-25 product. Two major problems of JRA-25 were a cold bias in the lower stratosphere, which has been diminished, and a dry bias in the Amazon basin, which has been mitigated. The temporal consistency of temperature analysis has also been considerably improved compared to previous reanalysis products. Our initial quality evaluation revealed problems such as a warm bias in the upper troposphere, large upward imbalance in the global mean net energy fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface, excessive precipitation over the tropics, and unrealistic trends in analyzed tropical cyclone strength. This paper also assesses the impacts of model biases and changes in the observing system, and mentions efforts to further investigate the representation of low-frequency variability and trends in JRA-55.
著者
SAITO Kazuo KUNII Masaru ARAKI Kentaro
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-027, (Released:2018-02-11)
被引用文献数
2

Local heavy rainfall of about 100 mm h-1 occurred in Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture on 26 August 2011. This rain was brought by a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that developed near a stationary front that slowly moved southward. In an analysis using geostationary multi-purpose satellite rapid scan images and dense automated weather station networks, development of the MCS occurred after the merging of sea breezes from the east (Kashima-nada) and the south (Tokyo Bay). Numerical experiments by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nonhydrostatic model (NHM) with horizontal resolutions of 10 km and 2 km using mesoscale 4D-VAR analysis of JMA for initial conditions tended to predict the position of intense rainfall areas west of observed positions. In the mesoscale ensemble forecast using perturbations from JMA’s one-week global ensemble prediction system (EPS) forecast, some ensemble members showed enhanced precipitation around Tokyo, but false precipitation areas appeared north of the Kanto and Hokuriku Districts. As an attempt to improve the model forecast, we modified the model, reducing the lower limit of subgrid deviation of water vapor condensation to diagnose the cloudiness for radiation. In the modified model simulation, surface temperatures around Tokyo increased by about 1°C and the position of the intense precipitation was improved, but the false precipitation areas in the Hokuriku District were also enhanced in the ensemble member which brought a better forecast than the control run. We also conducted ensemble prediction using a singular vector method based on NHM. One of the ensemble members unstabilized the lower atmosphere on the windward side of the Kanto District and suppressed the false precipitation in the Hokuriku District, and observed characteristics of the local heavy rainfall were well reproduced by NHM with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. A conceptual model of the initiation of deep convection by the formation of a low-level convergence zone succeeding merging of the two sea breezes from the east and south is proposed based on observations, previous studies, and numerical simulation results. In this event, the northerly ambient wind played an important role on the occurrence of the local heavy rainfall around Tokyo by suppressing the northward intrusion of the sea breeze from the south.
著者
Axel GABRIEL Dieter PETERS
出版者
(公社)日本気象学会
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.86, no.5, pp.613-631, 2008 (Released:2008-11-13)
参考文献数
16
被引用文献数
19 23 26

The long-term behavior of Rossby wave breaking (RWB) events is investigated by a diagnosis separating in different asymmetric types of RWB, i.e., cyclonically sheared waves breaking predominantly pole-ward (P1) or equatorward (LC2) and anticyclonically sheared waves breaking predominantly poleward (P2) or equatorward (LC1). Generally, RWB can be identified by meridional overturning of potential vorticity (PV) on specific isentropes, but a separation in poleward or equatorward asymmetry is too difficult based on PV maps alone. For this paper, we use that northward or southward direction of the meridional wave flux component for quasi-stationary Rossby waves indicates cyclonically or anticyclonically sheared RWB. We demonstrate that the magnitude of the meridional wave fluxes gives a reliable measure of the asymmetric types of RWB when combining with PV diagnostics as well as with the geometry of large-scale diffluent/ confluent flow. Based on 45 winter periods of ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-40), we found two pronounced regions for P1- and LC2-type events, over the northern North Pacific and the northern North Atlantic, and two extended belts of P2- and LC1-type RWB events, over the North Pacific/North America region and the North Atlantic/European-West Asian region. The results reveal that the long-term mean occurrence of poleward RWB is generally as large as that of equatorward RWB with local differences. Since poleward or equatorward RWB events influence different regions efficiently, e.g., by associated cut-off cyclones or anticyclones, the proposed diagnosis gives an important tool for interpreting long-term general circulation patterns and large-scale weather regimes.
著者
Youichi KAMAE Wei MEI Shang-Ping XIE
出版者
(公社)日本気象学会
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.95, no.6, pp.411-431, 2017 (Released:2017-11-14)
参考文献数
76
被引用文献数
1

Eddy transport of atmospheric water vapor from the tropics is important for rainfall and related natural disasters in the middle latitudes. Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense moisture plumes that are typically associated with extratropical cyclones, often produce heavy precipitation upon encountering topography on the west coasts of mid-latitude North America and Europe. ARs also occur over the northwestern Pacific and sometimes cause floods and landslides over East Asia, but the climatological relationship between ARs and heavy rainfall in this region remains unclear. Here we evaluate the contribution of ARs to the hydrological cycle over East Asia using high-resolution daily rainfall observations and an atmospheric reanalysis during 1958-2007. Despite their low occurrence, ARs account for 14-44 % of the total rainfall and 20-90 % of extreme heavy-rainfall events during spring, summer, and autumn. AR-related extreme rainfall is especially pronounced over western-to-southeastern slopes of terrains over the Korean Peninsula and Japan, owing to strong orographic effects and a stable direction of low-level moisture flows. A strong relationship between warm-season AR heavy rainfall and preceding-winter El Niño is identified since the 1970s, suggesting the potential of predicting heavy-rainfall risk over Korea and Japan at seasonal leads.
著者
Toshinori AOYAGI Nobuyuki KAYABA Naoko SEINO
出版者
(公社)日本気象学会
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.90B, pp.11-31, 2012 (Released:2012-06-09)
参考文献数
32
被引用文献数
10 11 4

We investigated a warming trend in the Kanto-Koshin area during a 30-year period (1976-2006). The warming trends at AMeDAS stations were estimated to average a little less than 1.3°C/30 years in both summer and winter. These warming trends were considered to include the trends of large-scale and local-scale warming effects. Because a regional climate model with 20-km resolution without any urban parameterization could not well express the observed warming trends and their daily variations, we investigated whether a mesoscale atmospheric model with an urban canopy scheme could express them.To make the simulations realistic, we used 3 sets of real data: National Land Numerical Information datasets for the estimation of the land use area fractions, anthropogenic heat datasets varying in space and time, and GIS datasets of building shapes in the Tokyo Metropolis for the setting of building aspect ratios. The time integrations over 2 months were executed for both summer and winter. A certain level of correlation was found between the simulated temperature rises and the observed warming trends at the AMeDAS stations. The daily variation of the temperature rises in urban grids was higher at night than in the daytime, and its range was larger in winter than in summer. Such tendencies were consistent with the observational results.From factor analyses, we figured out the classic and some unexpected features of urban warming, as follows: (1) Land use distribution change (mainly caused by the decrease of vegetation cover) had the largest daytime warming effect, and the effect was larger in summer than in winter; (2) anthropogenic heat had a warming effect with 2 small peaks owing to the daily variation of the released heat and the timing of stable atmospheric layer formation; and (3) increased building height was the largest factor contributing to the temperature rises, with a single peak in early morning.
著者
Hironobu IWABUCHI Nurfiena Sagita PUTRI Masanori SAITO Yuka TOKORO Miho SEKIGUCHI Ping YANG Bryan A. BAUM
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.96B, pp.27-42, 2018 (Released:2018-03-16)
参考文献数
35
被引用文献数
1

An algorithm for retrieving the macroscopic, physical, and optical properties of clouds from thermal infrared measurements is applied to the Himawari-8 multiband observations. A sensitivity study demonstrates that the addition of the single CO2 band of Himawari-8 is effective for the estimation of cloud top height. For validation, retrieved cloud properties are compared systematically with collocated active remote sensing counterparts with small time lags. While retrievals agree reasonably for single-layer clouds, multilayer cloud systems with optically thin upper clouds overlying lower clouds are the major source of error in the present algorithm. Validation of cloud products is critical for identifying the characteristics, advantages, and limitation of each product and should be continued in the future.  As an application example, data are analyzed for eight days in the vicinity of the New Guinea to study the diurnal cycle of the cloud system. The present cloud property analysis investigates cloud evolution through separation of different cloud types and reveals typical features of diurnal cycles related to the topography. Over land, middle clouds increase from 0900 to 1200 local solar time (LST), deep convective clouds develop rapidly during 1200-1700 LST with a subsequent increase in cirrus and cirrostratus cloud amounts. Over the ocean near coastlines, a broad peak of convective cloud fraction is seen in the early morning. The present study demonstrates the utility of frequent observations by Himawari-8 for life cycle study of cloud systems, owing to the ability to capture their continuous temporal variations.
著者
UEDA Hiroaki MIWA Kana KAMAE Youichi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-044, (Released:2018-05-14)

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) activity to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and coherent sea surface temperate (SST) anomaly in the Indian Ocean (IO) is investigated with a particular focus on the decaying phase of El Niño. The TC anomalies are obtained from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF). This dataset is based on 100-member ensemble simulations for the period of 1951-2010 by use of the state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed SST as well as the historical radiative forcing. AGCM utilized in the d4PDF is the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model with about 60km horizontal resolution. Our analysis reveals a prolonged decrease in TC frequency over the tropical western Pacific during the post El Niño years until the boreal fall. Dominance of anomalous anticyclone (AAC) over the western Pacific induced by the delayed warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is the main factor for the suppressed TC activity rather than the local SST change. In contrast, the TC number over the South China Sea tends to increase during the post-El Niño fall (September to November). The physical reason can be ascribed to the weakening of AAC associated with the termination of IO warming. Thus we demonstrate that the effect of the IO warming should be taken into account when the ENSO is considered as an environmental factor for predicting TC activity.
著者
YUMIMOTO Keiya TANAKA Taichu Y. YOSHIDA Mayumi KIKUCHI Maki NAGAO Takashi M. MURAKAMI Hiroshi MAKI Takashi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-035, (Released:2018-04-08)

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) launched a next-generation geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS), Himawari-8, on October 7, 2014 and began its operation on July 7, 2015. The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard Himawari-8 has 16 observational bands that enable the retrieval of full-disk maps of aerosol optical properties (AOPs), including aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and the Ångström exponent (AE) with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, we combined an aerosol transport model with the Himawari-8 AOT using the data assimilation method, and performed aerosol assimilation and forecasting experiments on smoke from an intensive wildfire that occurred over Siberia between May 15 and 18, 2016. To effectively utilize the high observational frequency of Himawari-8, we assimilated 1-h merged AOTs generated through the combination of six AOT snapshots taken over 10-min intervals, three times per day. The heavy smoke originating from the wildfire was transported eastward behind a low-pressure trough, and covered northern Japan from May 19 to 20. The southern part of the smoke plume then traveled westward, in a clockwise flow associated with high pressure. The forecast without assimilation reproduced the transport of the smoke to northern Japan; however, it underestimated AOT and the extinction coefficient compared with observed values, mainly due to errors in the emission inventory. Data assimilation with the Himawari-8 AOT compensated for the underestimation and successfully forecasted the unique C-shaped distribution of the smoke. In particular, the assimilation of the Himawari-8 AOT during May 18 greatly improved the forecast of the southern part of the smoke flow. Our results indicate that the inheritance of assimilation cycles and the assimilation of more recent observations led to better forecasting in this case of a continental smoke outflow.
著者
YOSHIDA Mayumi KIKUCHI Maki NAGAO Takashi M. MURAKAMI Hiroshi NOMAKI Tomoyuki HIGURASHI Akiko
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-039, (Released:2018-04-15)
被引用文献数
1

We develop a common retrieval algorithm of aerosol properties such as aerosol optical thickness, single-scattering albedo, and Ångström exponent for various satellite sensors over both land and ocean. The three main features of this algorithm are as follows: (1) automatic selection of the optimum channels for aerosol retrieval by introducing a weight for each channel to the object function, (2) setting common candidate aerosol models over land and ocean, and (3) preparation of lookup tables for every 1 nm in the range from 300 to 2500 nm of wavelength and weighting the radiance using the response function for each sensor. This method was applied to the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on board the Japan Meteorological Agency’s geostationary satellite Himawari-8, and the results depicted an approximately continuous estimate of aerosol optical thickness over land and ocean. Further, the aerosol optical thickness estimated using our algorithm was generally consistent with the products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Additionally, we applied our algorithm to MODIS on board the Aqua satellite and then compared the retrieval results to those that were obtained using AHI. The comparisons of the aerosol optical thickness retrieved from different sensors with different viewing angles on board the geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites suggest an underestimation of aerosol optical thickness at the backscattering direction (or overestimated in other directions). The retrieval of aerosol properties using a common algorithm allows us to identify a weakness in the algorithm, which includes the assumptions in the aerosol model (e.g. sphericity or size distiribution).
著者
Keiichi ISHIOKA
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.96, no.2, pp.241-249, 2018 (Released:2018-03-27)
参考文献数
18

A new recurrence formula to calculate the associated Legendre functions is proposed for efficient computation of the spherical harmonic transform. This new recurrence formula makes the best use of the fused multiply–add (FMA) operations implemented in modern computers. The computational speeds in calculating the spherical harmonic transform are compared between a numerical code in which the new recurrence formula is implemented and another code using the traditional recurrence formula. This comparison shows that implementation of the new recurrence formula contributes to a faster transform. Furthermore, a scheme to maintain the accuracy of the transform, even when the truncation wavenumber is huge, is also explained.
著者
OTSUKA Michiko SEKO Hiromu SHIMOJI Kazuki YAMASHITA Koji
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-034, (Released:2018-03-23)

Rapid scan atmospheric motion vectors (RS-AMV) were derived with an algorithm developed by the Meteorological Satellite Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from Himawari-8 rapid scan imagery over the area around Japan. They were computed every 10 min for seven different channels, namely, the visible channel (VIS), near infrared and infrared channels (IR), three water vapor absorption channels (WV), and CO2 absorption channel (CO2), from image triplets with time intervals of 2.5 min for VIS and 5 min for the other six channels. In June 2016, the amount of data was increased by more than 20 times compared to the number of routinely used AMVs. To exploit these high-resolution data in mesoscale data assimilation for the improvement of short-range forecasts, data verification and assimilation experiments were conducted. The RS-AMVs were of sufficiently good quality for assimilation and consistent overall with winds from JMA’s mesoscale analyses, radiosonde, and wind profiler observations. Errors were slightly larger in WV than in VIS and IR channels. Significant negative biases relative to sonde winds were seen at high levels in VIS, IR, and CO2, while slightly positive biases were noticeable in WV at mid- to high levels. Data assimilation experiments with the JMA’s non-hydrostatic model based Variational Data Assimilation System (JNoVA) on a cold vortex event in June 2016 were conducted using RS-AMVs from seven channels. The wind forecasts improved slightly in early forecast hours before 12 hours in northern Japan, over which the vortex passed during the assimilation period. They also showed small improvement at low levels when averaged over the whole forecast period. The results varied slightly depending on the channels used for assimilation, which might be caused by different error characteristics of RS-AMVs in different channels.
著者
TOCHIMOTO Eigo NIINO Hiroshi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-043, (Released:2018-04-27)

This study used the JRA-55 reanalysis dataset to analyze the structure and environment of extratropical cyclones (ECs) that spawned tornadoes (tornadic ECs: TECs) between 1961 and 2011 in Japan. Composite analysis indicated that the differences between the structure and environment of TECs and those of ECs that did not spawn tornadoes (non-tornadic ECs: NTECs) vary with the seasons. In spring (March–May), TECs are associated with stronger upper-level potential vorticity and colder mid-level temperature than NTECs. The colder air at the mid-level contributes to the increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) of TECs. TECs in winter (December–February: DJF) and those northward of 40°N in autumn (September–November: SON) are accompanied by larger CAPE than are NTECs. The larger CAPE for TECs in DJF is caused by larger moisture and warmer temperature at low levels, and that for TECs northward of 40°N in SON (NSON) is caused by the colder mid-level temperature associated with an upper-level trough. The distribution of the energy helicity index also shows significant differences between TECs and NTECs for DJF and NSON. On the other hand, the distribution of the 0–1 km storm relative environmental helicity (SREH) shows no significant differences between TECs and NTECs in most seasons except DJF. A comparison of TECs between Japan and the United States (US) shows that SREH and CAPE are noticeably larger in the US. It is suggested that these differences occur because TECs in the US (Japan) develop over land (ocean), which exerts more (less) surface friction and diurnal heating.
著者
MISUMI Ryohei UJI Yasushi TOBO Yutaka MIURA Kazuhiko UETAKE Jun IWAMOTO Yoko MAESAKA Takeshi IWANAMI Koyuru
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-040, (Released:2018-04-13)

Continuous observations of cloud droplet size distributions (DSDs) in low-level stratiform clouds have been conducted at a height of 458 m from Tokyo Skytree (a 634-m high broadcasting tower in Tokyo) using a cloud droplet spectrometer. In this report, the characteristics of cloud parameters related to the cloud DSD from June to December 2016 are presented. The mean cloud droplet number concentration (Nc), average diameters, and effective diameters of cloud droplets in non-drizzling clouds were 213 cm-3, 7.3 μm, and 9.5 μm, respectively, which are close to the reported values for continental stratiform clouds. The relationship between the liquid water content (LWC; g m-3), Nc (cm-3) and radar reflectivity (Z; mm6 m-3) was estimated as LWC = 0.17Nc0.50 Z0.45, with a coefficient of determination ( R 2) of 0.93. The observed cloud DSDs were well fitted by a lognormal distribution and the average median diameter of the fitted DSD was 6.6 μm.
著者
Ryohei MISUMI Namiko SAKURAI Takeshi MAESAKA Shin-ichi SUZUKI Shingo SHIMIZU Koyuru IWANAMI
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.96A, pp.51-66, 2018 (Released:2018-02-19)
参考文献数
26

Convective storms are frequently initiated over mountains under weak synoptic forcing conditions. However, the initiation process of such convective storms is not well understood due to a lack of observations, especially the transition process from non-precipitating cumuli to precipitating convective clouds. To investigate the initiation process, we conducted observations around the mountains in the Kanto region, Japan on 18 August 2011 using a 35 GHz (Ka-band) Doppler radar and a pair of digital cameras. The evolution of convective clouds was classified into three stages: convective clouds visible but not detected by the Ka-band radar (stage 0), convective clouds detectable by the Ka-band radar with reflectivity below 15 dBZ (stage 1), and convective clouds accompanied by descending echoes corresponding to precipitation (stage 2). During the transition process from stage 1 to stage 2, weak radar echoes rose to the higher level and reflectivity rapidly increased. This phenomenon suggests that drizzle particles produced in a preexisting convective cloud were lifted by a newly developed updraft, and raindrops were formed rapidly by coalescence of the drizzle particles and cloud droplets. This hypothetical process explains the precipitation echo formation in the lower layer frequently observed in the mountainous area in the Kanto region.
著者
FUJIBE Fumiaki
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-021, (Released:2018-01-23)

Climatological features of surface air temperature variations on time scales of a few minutes to one hour were examined using one-minute data, spanning a four-year period, from 917 automated stations in Japan. The temperature time series was spectrally analyzed after the application of a Gaussian high-pass filter, and the variances with periods of 64 minutes or less were statistically analyzed as sub-hourly temperature variations. The result obtained shows that daytime temperature variation is observed throughout the country with relatively small regional differences. The amplitudes of daytime temperature variations were larger during spring and summer than those during autumn and winter, and under high temperature and sunny weather than under low temperature, no sunshine, and precipitation. A cross spectral analysis of temperature and wind speed reveals that temperature peaks tend to coincide with or lag behind wind speed minima. The variation is likely to correspond to the convective motion in the mixing layer. On the other hand, the intensity of nighttime temperature variation showed a large amount of scatter among stations, with exceptionally large variations during winter at some stations in northern and eastern Japan. Nighttime temperature variation tends to be in-phase with wind speed variation, with longer periods than daytime temperature variation, and is more intense under low temperature and low wind speed than under high temperature, high wind speed, and precipitation. Stations with large winter nighttime temperature variations tend to be located on a col or a slope, where the surface inversion layer is likely to be easily disturbed by any kind of atmospheric motion.
著者
MURAZAKI Kazuyo TSUJINO Hiroyuki MOTOI Tatsuo KURIHARA Kazuo
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.93, no.2, pp.161-179, 2015
被引用文献数
1

We performed a 20-year numerical experiment over the period 1985 to 2004 using a high-resolution North Pacific Ocean General Circulation Model (NPOGCM) and a 20 km-resolution regional climate model (RCM20) to clarify the impact of the Kuroshio large meander (LM) on the climate around Japan. The NPOGCM reproduced the two primary quasi-stationary states, straight path (SP), and large meander (LM), although the periods during which each state prevailed differed from those indicated in the observational data. The NPOGCM result also showed that the Kuroshio LM causes a cold sea surface temperature anomaly to the south of the Pacific coast of the central Japan. Using the result as a lower boundary condition, a continuous numerical integration was performed by the RCM20. An 8-year composite analysis of the atmospheric circulations of the RCM20 simulation for the Kuroshio LM and SP showed that, in both winter and summer, substantial decreases in the upward surface turbulent heat flux, the frequency of precipitation, and the frequency of steep horizontal gradients in equivalent potential temperature over the ocean are caused by the cold sea surface temperature anomaly. Similar effects are evident over the land area of Japan, although they are less intense, at most 20-50 % of magnitude over the cold sea surface temperature anomaly area, and limited to the coastal region on the Pacific Ocean side in the central part of the country.
著者
Tsuyoshi Thomas SEKIYAMA Mizuo KAJINO Masaru KUNII
出版者
(公社)日本気象学会
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.95, no.6, pp.447-454, 2017 (Released:2017-11-14)
参考文献数
26
被引用文献数
2

We investigated the predictability of plume advection in the lower troposphere and the impact of AMeDAS surface wind data assimilation by using radioactive cesium emitted by the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011 as an atmospheric tracer. We conducted two experiments of radioactive plume predictions over eastern Japan for March 15, 2011 with a 3-km horizontal resolution using the Japan Meteorological Agency non-hydrostatic weather forecast model and local ensemble transform Kalman filter (JMANHM-LETKF) data assimilation system. The assimilated meteorological data were obtained from the standard archives collected for the Japan Meteorological Agency operational numerical weather prediction and the AMeDAS surface wind observations. The standard archives do not contain land-surface wind observations. The modeled radioactive cesium concentrations were examined for plume arrival times at 40 observatories. The mean error of the plume arrival times for the standard experiment (assimilating only the standard archives) was 82.0 min with a 13-h lead-time on an average. In contrast, the mean error of the AMeDAS experiment (assimilating both the standard archives and AMeDAS surface wind observations) was 72.8 min, which was 9.2 min (11 %) better than that of the standard experiment. This result indicates that the plume prediction has a reasonable accuracy for the environmental emergency response and the prediction can be significantly improved by the surface wind data assimilation.
著者
Tomoe NASUNO Kazuyoshi KIKUCHI Masuo NAKANO Yohei YAMADA Mikiko IKEDA Hiroshi TANIGUCHI
出版者
(公社)日本気象学会
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.95, no.6, pp.345-368, 2017 (Released:2017-11-14)
参考文献数
79

By comparison with satellite and field observations, the comprehensive performance and potential utility of near real-time forecasts using Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) are demonstrated by exploiting the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY2011) / Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) campaign. A week-long forecast was run each day using a regionally stretched version of NICAM, with the finest mesh size of 14 km over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO), throughout the intensive observation period (IOP).  The simulated precipitation time series fairly represented the evolution and propagation of the observed Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, although a 30 % overprediction of precipitation over the IO domain (60–90°E, 10°S–10°N) was found on average. Frequencies of strong (> 40 mm day−1) precipitation were overpredicted, while those of weak precipitation were underpredicted against satellite observations. Compared with the field observations at Gan Island, the biases in precipitation frequency were less obvious, whereas the growth of lower to middle tropospheric dry (∼ 1 g kg−1) and warm (∼ 1 K) biases were found. Despite these mean biases, temporal variations of the moisture and zonal wind profiles including the MJO events were reasonably simulated. Using the forecast data the moisture and energy budgets during the IOP were investigated. The diagnosis using the 7-day-mean fields captured the observed features of the MJO events. Meanwhile, significant upward transport of moisture by the grid-resolved high-frequency variability was detected throughout the IOP. The relationship between these high-frequency effects and the simulated MJO or mean biases is also discussed.