著者
Seiji YUKIMOTO Yukimasa ADACHI Masahiro HOSAKA Tomonori SAKAMI Hiromasa YOSHIMURA Mikitoshi HIRABARA Taichu Y. TANAKA Eiki SHINDO Hiroyuki TSUJINO Makoto DEUSHI Ryo MIZUTA Shoukichi YABU Atsushi OBATA Hideyuki NAKANO Tsuyoshi KOSHIRO Tomoaki OSE Akio KITOH
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.90A, pp.23-64, 2012 (Released:2012-06-07)
参考文献数
157
被引用文献数
354 400

A new global climate model, MRI-CGCM3, has been developed at the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). This model is an overall upgrade of MRI’s former climate model MRI-CGCM2 series. MRI-CGCM3 is composed of atmosphere-land, aerosol, and ocean-ice models, and is a subset of the MRI’s earth system model MRI-ESM1. Atmospheric component MRI-AGCM3 is interactively coupled with aerosol model to represent direct and indirect effects of aerosols with a new cloud microphysics scheme. Basic experiments for pre-industrial control, historical and climate sensitivity are performed with MRI-CGCM3. In the pre-industrial control experiment, the model exhibits very stable behavior without climatic drifts, at least in the radiation budget, the temperature near the surface and the major indices of ocean circulations. The sea surface temperature (SST) drift is sufficiently small, while there is a 1 W m-2 heating imbalance at the surface. The model’s climate sensitivity is estimated to be 2.11 K with Gregory’s method. The transient climate response (TCR) to 1 % yr-1 increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is 1.6 K with doubling of CO2 concentration and 4.1 K with quadrupling of CO2 concentration. The simulated present-day mean climate in the historical experiment is evaluated by comparison with observations, including reanalysis. The model reproduces the overall mean climate, including seasonal variation in various aspects in the atmosphere and the oceans. Variability in the simulated climate is also evaluated and is found to be realistic, including El Niño and Southern Oscillation and the Arctic and Antarctic oscillations. However, some important issues are identified. The simulated SST indicates generally cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and warm bias in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and the simulated sea ice expands excessively in the North Atlantic in winter. A double ITCZ also appears in the tropical Pacific, particularly in the austral summer.
著者
村松 照男
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.64, no.2, pp.259-272, 1986 (Released:2007-10-19)
参考文献数
17
被引用文献数
13 14

レーダーと衛星で決定した台風眼(T8019, WYNNE)の移動軌跡上にトロコイダル運動による顕著な周期変動が観測された。周期は5~8時間,最大振幅は23kmであった。周期の減少とともに振幅も減少した。レーダーエコーの解析の結果,台風眼の中心は台風系全体の中心とは一致せず,約20km偏位し系の中心に対し反時計回りに回転していることが明らかとなった。この間,外側と内側の eye wal1の直径が各々260kmと30kmである二重眼構造と,それに対応する風速分布の二重極大が観測された。特に,気圧と風速場で楕円状の循環が見られ,その結果としての矩形状エコー構造が外側 eye wal1の内側で観測された。この矩形と楕円状循環は台風系の中心に対しトロコイダル周期と同周期で,外側 eye wal1に内接しながら回転していた。台風眼は楕円の一方の焦点を追うように移動し,この結果としてトロコイダル軌跡となった。しかしながら,なぜ眼が系の中心から偏れるのかはまだ明らかとなっていない。
著者
ITO Kosuke WU Chun-Chieh CHAN Kelvin T. F. TOUMI Ralf DAVIS Chris
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-001, (Released:2019-10-08)
被引用文献数
1

While the fundamental understanding of the movement of a tropical cyclone (TC) is fairly mature, there are still notable advancements being made. This paper summarizes new concepts and updates on existing fundamental theories on TC movement obtained from simplified barotropic models, full-physics models, and data analysis particularly since 2014. It includes the recent works on the interaction of the TC with its environment and the fundamental aspects of predictability related to TC movement. The conventional concepts of the steering flow, β-gyre, and diabatic heating remain important. Yet, a more complete understanding of mechanisms governing TC movement serves as an important basis toward the further improvement of track forecasts.
著者
Shinya KOBAYASHI Yukinari OTA Yayoi HARADA Ayataka EBITA Masami MORIYA Hirokatsu ONODA Kazutoshi ONOGI Hirotaka KAMAHORI Chiaki KOBAYASHI Hirokazu ENDO Kengo MIYAOKA Kiyotoshi TAKAHASHI
出版者
(公社)日本気象学会
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.93, no.1, pp.5-48, 2015 (Released:2015-03-18)
参考文献数
128
被引用文献数
213 1382

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) conducted the second Japanese global atmospheric reanalysis, called the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis or JRA-55. It covers the period from 1958, when regular radiosonde observations began on a global basis. JRA-55 is the first comprehensive reanalysis that has covered the last half-century since the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 45-year Reanalysis (ERA-40), and is the first one to apply four-dimensional variational analysis to this period. The main objectives of JRA-55 were to address issues found in previous reanalyses and to produce a comprehensive atmospheric dataset suitable for studying multidecadal variability and climate change. This paper describes the observations, data assimilation system, and forecast model used to produce JRA-55 as well as the basic characteristics of the JRA-55 product. JRA-55 has been produced with the TL319 version of JMA’s operational data assimilation system as of December 2009, which was extensively improved since the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25). It also uses several newly available and improved past observations. The resulting reanalysis products are considerably better than the JRA-25 product. Two major problems of JRA-25 were a cold bias in the lower stratosphere, which has been diminished, and a dry bias in the Amazon basin, which has been mitigated. The temporal consistency of temperature analysis has also been considerably improved compared to previous reanalysis products. Our initial quality evaluation revealed problems such as a warm bias in the upper troposphere, large upward imbalance in the global mean net energy fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface, excessive precipitation over the tropics, and unrealistic trends in analyzed tropical cyclone strength. This paper also assesses the impacts of model biases and changes in the observing system, and mentions efforts to further investigate the representation of low-frequency variability and trends in JRA-55.
著者
SAITO Kazuo KUNII Masaru ARAKI Kentaro
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-027, (Released:2018-02-11)
被引用文献数
4

Local heavy rainfall of about 100 mm h-1 occurred in Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture on 26 August 2011. This rain was brought by a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that developed near a stationary front that slowly moved southward. In an analysis using geostationary multi-purpose satellite rapid scan images and dense automated weather station networks, development of the MCS occurred after the merging of sea breezes from the east (Kashima-nada) and the south (Tokyo Bay). Numerical experiments by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nonhydrostatic model (NHM) with horizontal resolutions of 10 km and 2 km using mesoscale 4D-VAR analysis of JMA for initial conditions tended to predict the position of intense rainfall areas west of observed positions. In the mesoscale ensemble forecast using perturbations from JMA’s one-week global ensemble prediction system (EPS) forecast, some ensemble members showed enhanced precipitation around Tokyo, but false precipitation areas appeared north of the Kanto and Hokuriku Districts. As an attempt to improve the model forecast, we modified the model, reducing the lower limit of subgrid deviation of water vapor condensation to diagnose the cloudiness for radiation. In the modified model simulation, surface temperatures around Tokyo increased by about 1°C and the position of the intense precipitation was improved, but the false precipitation areas in the Hokuriku District were also enhanced in the ensemble member which brought a better forecast than the control run. We also conducted ensemble prediction using a singular vector method based on NHM. One of the ensemble members unstabilized the lower atmosphere on the windward side of the Kanto District and suppressed the false precipitation in the Hokuriku District, and observed characteristics of the local heavy rainfall were well reproduced by NHM with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. A conceptual model of the initiation of deep convection by the formation of a low-level convergence zone succeeding merging of the two sea breezes from the east and south is proposed based on observations, previous studies, and numerical simulation results. In this event, the northerly ambient wind played an important role on the occurrence of the local heavy rainfall around Tokyo by suppressing the northward intrusion of the sea breeze from the south.
著者
KATO Teruyuki
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-029, (Released:2020-03-24)
被引用文献数
1

In Japan, localized heavy rainfall events producing accumulated three-hour precipitation amounts larger than 200 mm are often observed to cause severe landslides and floods. Such events are mainly brought by quasi-stationary band-shaped precipitation systems, named “senjo-kousuitai” in Japanese. Senjo-kousuitai is defined as a band-shaped heavy rainfall area with a length of 50-300 km and a width of 20-50 km, produced by successively formed and developed convective cells, lining up to organize multi-cell clusters, and passing or stagnating at almost the same place for a few hours. The formation processes of senjo-kousuitai are categorized mainly into two types; the broken line type in which convective cells simultaneously form on a quasi-stationary local front by the inflow of warm and humid air, and the back building type in which new convective cells successively forming on the upstream side of low-level winds linearly organize with pre-existing cells. In this study, previous studies of band-shaped precipitation systems are reviewed, and the numerical reproducibility of senjo-kousuitai events and the favorable conditions for their occurrence are examined. In a case of Hiroshima heavy rainfall observed in western Japan on 20 August 2014, the reproduction of the senjo-kousuitai requires a horizontal resolution of at least 2 km, which is sufficient to roughly resolve the formation and development processes of convective cells, while a resolution of 250-500 m is necessary to accurately reproduce their inner core structures. The 2-km model quantitatively reproduced the Hiroshima case when initial conditions 10 hours before the event were used, but the predicted amounts of maximum accumulated precipitation were considerably reduced as the initial time became closer to the occurrence time of the senjo-kousuitai. This reduction was brought from the excessive inflow of low-level dry air that shifted occurrence areas of new multi-cell clusters.  Six favorable occurrence conditions of senjo-kousuitai events for their diagnostic forecasts were statistically constructed from environmental atmospheric fields in previous localized heavy rainfall events. Two conditions of (1) large water vapor flux amounts (> 150 g m−2 s−1) and (2) short distances to the level of free convection (< 1000 m) were chosen representatively for the low-level water vapor field that is judged based on 500-m height data. Four other favorable conditions are selected; (3) high relative humidity at midlevels (> 60 % at 500 hPa and 700 hPa), (4) large vertical shear estimated from the storm relative environmental helicity (> 100 m2 s−2), (5) synoptic-scale ascending areas (400 km mean field at 700 hPa), and (6) the exclusion of warm air advection frequently appearing at 700-850 hPa and inhibiting the development of convection (i.e., an equilibrium level > 3000 m).
著者
Axel GABRIEL Dieter PETERS
出版者
(公社)日本気象学会
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.86, no.5, pp.613-631, 2008 (Released:2008-11-13)
参考文献数
16
被引用文献数
19 32 26

The long-term behavior of Rossby wave breaking (RWB) events is investigated by a diagnosis separating in different asymmetric types of RWB, i.e., cyclonically sheared waves breaking predominantly pole-ward (P1) or equatorward (LC2) and anticyclonically sheared waves breaking predominantly poleward (P2) or equatorward (LC1). Generally, RWB can be identified by meridional overturning of potential vorticity (PV) on specific isentropes, but a separation in poleward or equatorward asymmetry is too difficult based on PV maps alone. For this paper, we use that northward or southward direction of the meridional wave flux component for quasi-stationary Rossby waves indicates cyclonically or anticyclonically sheared RWB. We demonstrate that the magnitude of the meridional wave fluxes gives a reliable measure of the asymmetric types of RWB when combining with PV diagnostics as well as with the geometry of large-scale diffluent/ confluent flow. Based on 45 winter periods of ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-40), we found two pronounced regions for P1- and LC2-type events, over the northern North Pacific and the northern North Atlantic, and two extended belts of P2- and LC1-type RWB events, over the North Pacific/North America region and the North Atlantic/European-West Asian region. The results reveal that the long-term mean occurrence of poleward RWB is generally as large as that of equatorward RWB with local differences. Since poleward or equatorward RWB events influence different regions efficiently, e.g., by associated cut-off cyclones or anticyclones, the proposed diagnosis gives an important tool for interpreting long-term general circulation patterns and large-scale weather regimes.
著者
Youichi KAMAE Wei MEI Shang-Ping XIE
出版者
(公社)日本気象学会
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.95, no.6, pp.411-431, 2017 (Released:2017-11-14)
参考文献数
76
被引用文献数
11

Eddy transport of atmospheric water vapor from the tropics is important for rainfall and related natural disasters in the middle latitudes. Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense moisture plumes that are typically associated with extratropical cyclones, often produce heavy precipitation upon encountering topography on the west coasts of mid-latitude North America and Europe. ARs also occur over the northwestern Pacific and sometimes cause floods and landslides over East Asia, but the climatological relationship between ARs and heavy rainfall in this region remains unclear. Here we evaluate the contribution of ARs to the hydrological cycle over East Asia using high-resolution daily rainfall observations and an atmospheric reanalysis during 1958-2007. Despite their low occurrence, ARs account for 14-44 % of the total rainfall and 20-90 % of extreme heavy-rainfall events during spring, summer, and autumn. AR-related extreme rainfall is especially pronounced over western-to-southeastern slopes of terrains over the Korean Peninsula and Japan, owing to strong orographic effects and a stable direction of low-level moisture flows. A strong relationship between warm-season AR heavy rainfall and preceding-winter El Niño is identified since the 1970s, suggesting the potential of predicting heavy-rainfall risk over Korea and Japan at seasonal leads.
著者
YAMAZAKI Akira HONDA Meiji KAWASE Hiroaki
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2019-012, (Released:2018-11-16)
被引用文献数
3

This study found that regional snowfall distributions in a Japan-Sea side area of Japan are controlled by intraseasonal jet variability, particularly the 10-day-timescale quasi-stationary Rossby waves across the Eurasian continent and the atmospheric blocking over the East Asian region. This study mainly focused on the Niigata area, which is representative of heavy snowfall areas in Japan. Based on previous studies, three types of dominant snowfall distributions were defined: 1) the plain (P) type, which is characterized by heavy snowfall events predominant in coastal regions of the Niigata area, 2) the mountain (M) type, which occurs in the mountainous regions, and 3) the PM type, which occurs across the whole Niigata area. Our results revealed that all distribution types were related to the south-ward shift of the westerly jet over Japan associated with an intensified trough, i.e., cyclonic anomalies, originating from quasi-stationary Rossby waves along westerly jets over Eurasia (Eurasian jets). The cyclonic anomalies were found to be also related to blocking cyclones because the frequency of blocking events considerably increased in the East Siberian region. The mechanisms leading to the trough intensification were different among the events of the three snowfall types. The formation of Siberian blocking with relatively different positions and different paths of quasi-stationary Rossby wave packet propagation along Eurasian jets were evident in the distribution types. Therefore, local-scale snowfall distributions in the Japan-Sea side area are determined by anomalous large-scale circulations, which can be evidently distinguished in the global reanalysis data.
著者
Toshinori AOYAGI Nobuyuki KAYABA Naoko SEINO
出版者
(公社)日本気象学会
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.90B, pp.11-31, 2012 (Released:2012-06-09)
参考文献数
32
被引用文献数
10 15 4

We investigated a warming trend in the Kanto-Koshin area during a 30-year period (1976-2006). The warming trends at AMeDAS stations were estimated to average a little less than 1.3°C/30 years in both summer and winter. These warming trends were considered to include the trends of large-scale and local-scale warming effects. Because a regional climate model with 20-km resolution without any urban parameterization could not well express the observed warming trends and their daily variations, we investigated whether a mesoscale atmospheric model with an urban canopy scheme could express them.To make the simulations realistic, we used 3 sets of real data: National Land Numerical Information datasets for the estimation of the land use area fractions, anthropogenic heat datasets varying in space and time, and GIS datasets of building shapes in the Tokyo Metropolis for the setting of building aspect ratios. The time integrations over 2 months were executed for both summer and winter. A certain level of correlation was found between the simulated temperature rises and the observed warming trends at the AMeDAS stations. The daily variation of the temperature rises in urban grids was higher at night than in the daytime, and its range was larger in winter than in summer. Such tendencies were consistent with the observational results.From factor analyses, we figured out the classic and some unexpected features of urban warming, as follows: (1) Land use distribution change (mainly caused by the decrease of vegetation cover) had the largest daytime warming effect, and the effect was larger in summer than in winter; (2) anthropogenic heat had a warming effect with 2 small peaks owing to the daily variation of the released heat and the timing of stable atmospheric layer formation; and (3) increased building height was the largest factor contributing to the temperature rises, with a single peak in early morning.
著者
STEVENS Bjorn ACQUISTAPACE Claudia HANSEN Akio HEINZE Rieke KLINGER Carolin KLOCKE Daniel RYBKA Harald SCHUBOTZ Wiebke WINDMILLER Julia ADAMIDIS Panagiotis ARKA Ioanna BARLAKAS Vasileios BIERCAMP Joachim BRUECK Matthias BRUNE Sebastian BUEHLER Stefan A. BURKHARDT Ulrike CIONI Guido COSTA-SURÓS Montserrat CREWELL Susanne CRÜGER Traute DENEKE Hartwig FRIEDERICHS Petra HENKEN Cintia Carbajal HOHENEGGER Cathy JACOB Marek JAKUB Fabian KALTHOFF Norbert KÖHLER Martin LAAR Thirza W. van LI Puxi LÖHNERT Ulrich MACKE Andreas MADENACH Nils MAYER Bernhard NAM Christine NAUMANN Ann Kristin PETERS Karsten POLL Stefan QUAAS Johannes RÖBER Niklas ROCHETIN Nicolas SCHECK Leonhard SCHEMANN Vera SCHNITT Sabrina SEIFERT Axel SENF Fabian SHAPKALIJEVSKI Metodija SIMMER Clemens SINGH Shweta SOURDEVAL Odran SPICKERMANN Dela STRANDGREN Johan TESSIOT Octave VERCAUTEREN Nikki VIAL Jessica VOIGT Aiko ZÄNGL Günter
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-021, (Released:2020-01-28)
被引用文献数
3

More than one hundred days were simulated over very large domains with fine (0.156 km to 2.5 km) grid spacing for realistic conditions to test the hypothesis that storm (kilometer) and large-eddy (hectometer) resolving simulations would provide an improved representation of clouds and precipitation in atmospheric simulations. At scales that resolve convective storms (storm-resolving for short) scales, the vertical velocity variance becomes resolved and a better physical basis is achieved for representing clouds and precipitation. Similar to past studies we find an improved representation of precipitation at kilometer scales, as compared to models with parameterised convection. The main precipitation features (location, diurnal cycle and spatial propagation) are well captured already at kilometer scales, and refining resolution to hectometer scales does not substantially change the simulations in these respects. It does, however, lead to a reduction in the precipitation on the time-scales considered – most notably over the Tropical ocean. Changes in the distribution of precipitation, with less frequent extremes are also found in simulations incorporating hecto-meter scales. Hectometer scales appear more important for the representation of clouds, and make it possible to capture many important aspects of the cloud field, from the vertical distribution of cloud cover, to the distribution of cloud sizes, to the diel (daily) cycle. Qualitative improvements, particularly in the ability to differentiate cumulus from stratiform clouds, are seen when reducing the grid spacing from kilometer to hectometer scales. At the hectometer scale new challenges arise, but the similarity of observed and simulated scales, and the more direct connection between the circulation and the unconstrained degrees of freedom make these challenges less daunting. This quality, combined with an already improved simulation as compared to more parameterised models, underpins our conviction that the use and further development of storm-resolving models offers exciting opportunities for advancing understanding of climate and climate change.
著者
NAOI Moeka KAMAE Youichi UEDA Hiroaki MEI Wei
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-027, (Released:2020-02-10)

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow water vapor transport bands over the mid-latitudes, often cause great socio-economic impacts over East Asia. While it has been shown that summertime AR activity over East Asia is strongly induced by preceding-winter El Niño development, it remains unclear the extent to which seasonal transitions of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from winter to summer affect the AR activity. Here we examine the relationship between the seasonal transitions of ENSO and the summertime AR activity over East Asia using an atmospheric reanalysis and high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble simulations. A rapid transition from preceding-winter El Niño to summertime La Niña results in more AR occurrence over northern East Asia via northward expansion of an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific compared to sustained or decayed El Niño cases. The northward expansion of the anticyclone is consistent with a steady response of the atmosphere to the anomalous condensation heating over the Maritime Continent and equatorial Pacific. Meridional positions of the extratropical AR occurrence and circulation anomalies are different between the reanalysis and AGCM simulations, which is possibly contributed by a limited sample size and/or AGCM biases and suggests that seasonal prediction of AR-related natural disaster risk over East Asia on a regional scale remains a challenge.
著者
KAWABATA Yasuhiro YAMAGUCHI Munehiko
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-042, (Released:2020-05-18)

The effectiveness of the probability ellipse for tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts is investigated with multiple ensembles from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the Met Office in the United Kingdom. All TCs during the 3 years from 2016 to 2018 are included in the verification. We show that the multiple ensembles composed of these four global ensembles are capable of predicting the situation-dependent uncertainties of TC track forecasts appropriately in both the along-track and cross-track directions. The use of a probability circle involves the implicit assumption of an isotropic error distribution, whereas the introduction of the probability ellipse makes it possible to provide information as to which is more uncertain; the direction or the speed of TC movement. Compared to the probability circle adopted operationally at JMA, the probability ellipse can potentially reduce the area by 16, 15, and 24 %, on average, at forecast times of 3, 4, and 5 days, respectively. This indicates that narrowing warning areas of TC track forecasts by the probability ellipse enables us to enhance disaster prevention/mitigation measures.
著者
MIYAMOTO Yoshiaki NISHIZAWA Seiya TOMITA Hirofumi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-023, (Released:2020-02-06)

The impacts of the number density of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and other thermodynamic quantities on moist Rayleigh convection were examined. A numerical model, consisting of a simple two–dimensional equation for Boussinesq air and a sophisticated double moment microphysics scheme, was developed. The impact of the number of CCN is most prominent in the initially formed convection, whereas the convection in the quasi–steady state does not significantly depend on the number of CCN. It is suggested that the former convection is driven by a mechanism without a background circulation, such as parcel theory. In contrast, the latter convection appears to be driven by the statically unstable background layer.  Incorporating the cloud microphysics reduces the integrated kinetic energy and number of convective cell (increases the distance between the cells), with some exceptions, which are consistent with previous studies. These features are not largely sensitive to the number of CCN. It is shown in this study that the reduction in kinetic energy is mainly due to condensation (evaporation) in the upper (lower) layer, which tends to stabilize the fluid. The ensemble simulation shows that the sensitivity of the moist processes to changes the temperature at the bottom boundary, temperature lapse rate, water vapor mixing ratio, and CCN is qualitatively similar to that in the control simulation. The impact becomes strong with increasing temperature lapse rate. The number of convective cell in a domain decreases with the degree of supersaturation or an increase in the domain–integrated condensate.
著者
HOHENEGGER Cathy KORNBLUEH Luis KLOCKE Daniel BECKER Tobias CIONI Guido ENGELS Jan Frederik SCHULZWEIDA Uwe STEVENS Bjorn
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-005, (Released:2019-11-10)
被引用文献数
3

Basic climate statistics, such as water and energy budgets, location and width of the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), trimodal tropical cloud distribution, position of the polar jet and land-sea contrast remain either biased in coarse-resolution General Circulation Models or are tuned. Here we examine the horizontal resolution dependency of such statistics in a set of global convection-permitting simulations integrated with the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model, explicit convection and grid spacings ranging from 80 km down to 2.5 km. The impact of resolution is quantified by comparing the resolution-induced differences to the spread obtained in an ensemble of eight distinct global storm-resolving models. Using this metric, we find that, at least by 5 km, the resolution-induced differences become smaller than the spread in 26 out of the 27 investigated statistics. Even for 9 (18) of these statistics, a grid spacing of 80 (10) km does not lead to significant differences. Resolution down to 5 km matters especially for net shortwave radiation, which systematically increases with resolution due to reductions in low cloud amount over the subtropical oceans. Further resolution dependencies can be found in the land-to-ocean precipitation ratio, in the latitudinal position and width of the Pacific ITCZ and in the longitudinal position of the Atlantic ITCZ. Also in the tropics, the deep convective cloud population systematically increases at the expense of the shallow one, whereas the partition of congestus clouds remains fairly constant. Finally, refining the grid spacing systematically moves the simulations closer to observations, but climate statistics exhibiting weaker resolution dependencies are not necessarily associated with smaller biases.
著者
UEDA Hiroaki MIWA Kana KAMAE Youichi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-044, (Released:2018-05-14)
被引用文献数
2

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) activity to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and coherent sea surface temperate (SST) anomaly in the Indian Ocean (IO) is investigated with a particular focus on the decaying phase of El Niño. The TC anomalies are obtained from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF). This dataset is based on 100-member ensemble simulations for the period of 1951-2010 by use of the state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed SST as well as the historical radiative forcing. AGCM utilized in the d4PDF is the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model with about 60km horizontal resolution. Our analysis reveals a prolonged decrease in TC frequency over the tropical western Pacific during the post El Niño years until the boreal fall. Dominance of anomalous anticyclone (AAC) over the western Pacific induced by the delayed warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is the main factor for the suppressed TC activity rather than the local SST change. In contrast, the TC number over the South China Sea tends to increase during the post-El Niño fall (September to November). The physical reason can be ascribed to the weakening of AAC associated with the termination of IO warming. Thus we demonstrate that the effect of the IO warming should be taken into account when the ENSO is considered as an environmental factor for predicting TC activity.
著者
Hironobu IWABUCHI Nurfiena Sagita PUTRI Masanori SAITO Yuka TOKORO Miho SEKIGUCHI Ping YANG Bryan A. BAUM
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.96B, pp.27-42, 2018 (Released:2018-03-16)
参考文献数
35
被引用文献数
12

An algorithm for retrieving the macroscopic, physical, and optical properties of clouds from thermal infrared measurements is applied to the Himawari-8 multiband observations. A sensitivity study demonstrates that the addition of the single CO2 band of Himawari-8 is effective for the estimation of cloud top height. For validation, retrieved cloud properties are compared systematically with collocated active remote sensing counterparts with small time lags. While retrievals agree reasonably for single-layer clouds, multilayer cloud systems with optically thin upper clouds overlying lower clouds are the major source of error in the present algorithm. Validation of cloud products is critical for identifying the characteristics, advantages, and limitation of each product and should be continued in the future.  As an application example, data are analyzed for eight days in the vicinity of the New Guinea to study the diurnal cycle of the cloud system. The present cloud property analysis investigates cloud evolution through separation of different cloud types and reveals typical features of diurnal cycles related to the topography. Over land, middle clouds increase from 0900 to 1200 local solar time (LST), deep convective clouds develop rapidly during 1200-1700 LST with a subsequent increase in cirrus and cirrostratus cloud amounts. Over the ocean near coastlines, a broad peak of convective cloud fraction is seen in the early morning. The present study demonstrates the utility of frequent observations by Himawari-8 for life cycle study of cloud systems, owing to the ability to capture their continuous temporal variations.
著者
SONG Hwan-Jin KIM Sunyoung ROH Soonyoung LEE Hyesook
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-044, (Released:2020-06-02)

This study compares the regional characteristics of heavy rain clouds in terms of Cloud Top Height (CTH) and Storm Height (SH) from long-term Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. The SH is derived from Precipitation Radar reflectivity and the CTH is estimated using Visible and InfraRed Scanner brightness temperature (10.8 μm) and reanalysis temperature profiles. As the rain rate increases, the average CTH and average SH increase, but by different degrees in different regions. Heavy rainfall in continental rainfall regimes such as Central Africa and the United States is characterized by high SH, in contrast to oceanic rainfall regions such as the northwestern Pacific, Korea, and Japan; the increase of atmospheric instability in dry environments is interpreted as a mechanism of continental floods. Conversely, heavy rain events in Korea and Japan occur in a thermodynamically near-neutral environment with large amounts of water vapor; these are characterized by the lowest CTH, SH, and ice water content. The northwestern Pacific exhibits the lowest SH in humid environments, similar to Korea and Japan; however, this region also characteristically exhibits the highest convective instability condition as well as high CTH and CTH–SH values, in contrast to Korea and Japan. The observed CTH and SH characteristics of heavy rain clouds are expected to be useful for the evaluation and improvement of satellite-based precipitation estimation and numerical model cloud parameterization.
著者
SUI Chung-Hsiung SATOH Masaki SUZUKI Kentaroh
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-024, (Released:2020-03-01)

Precipitation efficiency (PE) is a useful concept for estimating precipitation under a given environmental condition. PE is used in various situations in meteorology: to evaluate severe precipitation associated with a single storm event; as a parameter of cumulus convective parameterization; and to separate clouds and precipitation in climate projection studies. PE has been defined in several ways. In this review, we start with definitions of PE from microscopic and macroscopic perspectives, and provide estimates of PE based on observational and modeling approaches. Then, we review PE in shallow and organized deep convective systems that provide either a conceptual framework or physical constraints on representations of convection in models. Specifically, we focus on the roles of PE in cloud-radiative feedbacks to climate variability. Finally, we argue the usefulness of PE for investigating cloud and precipitation changes in climate projection studies.