著者
Kosuke Ito Hiroyuki Yamada Munehiko Yamaguchi Tetsuo Nakazawa Norio Nagahama Kensaku Shimizu Tadayasu Ohigashi Taro Shinoda Kazuhisa Tsuboki
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.105-110, 2018 (Released:2018-07-28)
参考文献数
30

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Lan was observed on 21-22 October 2017 by GPS dropsondes during the first aircraft missions of the Tropical Cyclones-Pacific Asian Research Campaign for the Improvement of Intensity Estimations/Forecasts (T-PARCII). To evaluate the impact of dropsondes on forecast skill, 12 36-h forecasts were conducted using a Japan Meteorological Agency non-hydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) with a JMA-NHM-based mesoscale four-dimensional data assimilation (DA) system. Track forecast skill improved over all forecast times with the assimilation of the dropsonde data. The improvement rate was 8-16% for 27-36-h forecasts. Minimum sea level pressure (Pmin) forecasts were generally degenerated (improved) for relatively short-term (long-term) forecasts by adding the dropsonde data, and maximum wind speed (Vmax) forecasts were degenerated. Some of the changes in the track and Vmax forecasts were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. It is notable that the dropsonde-derived estimate of Pmin was closer to the real-time analysis by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo than the RSMC Tokyo best track analysis. The degeneration in intensity forecast skill due to uncertainties in the best track data is discussed.
著者
SAITO Kazuo KUNII Masaru ARAKI Kentaro
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-027, (Released:2018-02-11)
被引用文献数
2

Local heavy rainfall of about 100 mm h-1 occurred in Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture on 26 August 2011. This rain was brought by a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that developed near a stationary front that slowly moved southward. In an analysis using geostationary multi-purpose satellite rapid scan images and dense automated weather station networks, development of the MCS occurred after the merging of sea breezes from the east (Kashima-nada) and the south (Tokyo Bay). Numerical experiments by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nonhydrostatic model (NHM) with horizontal resolutions of 10 km and 2 km using mesoscale 4D-VAR analysis of JMA for initial conditions tended to predict the position of intense rainfall areas west of observed positions. In the mesoscale ensemble forecast using perturbations from JMA’s one-week global ensemble prediction system (EPS) forecast, some ensemble members showed enhanced precipitation around Tokyo, but false precipitation areas appeared north of the Kanto and Hokuriku Districts. As an attempt to improve the model forecast, we modified the model, reducing the lower limit of subgrid deviation of water vapor condensation to diagnose the cloudiness for radiation. In the modified model simulation, surface temperatures around Tokyo increased by about 1°C and the position of the intense precipitation was improved, but the false precipitation areas in the Hokuriku District were also enhanced in the ensemble member which brought a better forecast than the control run. We also conducted ensemble prediction using a singular vector method based on NHM. One of the ensemble members unstabilized the lower atmosphere on the windward side of the Kanto District and suppressed the false precipitation in the Hokuriku District, and observed characteristics of the local heavy rainfall were well reproduced by NHM with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. A conceptual model of the initiation of deep convection by the formation of a low-level convergence zone succeeding merging of the two sea breezes from the east and south is proposed based on observations, previous studies, and numerical simulation results. In this event, the northerly ambient wind played an important role on the occurrence of the local heavy rainfall around Tokyo by suppressing the northward intrusion of the sea breeze from the south.
著者
Seiji Yukimoto Kunihiko Kodera Rémi Thiéblemont
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.13, pp.53-58, 2017 (Released:2017-04-04)
参考文献数
29

A delayed response of the winter North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) to the 11-year solar cycle has been observed and modeled in recent studies. However, the mechanisms creating this 2-4-year delay to the solar cycle have still not been well-understood. This study examines the effects of the 11-year solar cycle and the resulting modulation in the strength of the winter stratospheric polar vortex. A coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model is used to simulate these effects by introducing a mechanistic forcing in the stratosphere. The intensified stratospheric polar vortex is shown to induce positive and negative ocean temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean. The positive ocean temperature anomaly migrated northward and was amplified when it approached an oceanic frontal zone approximately 3 years after the forcing became maximum. This delayed ocean response is similar to that observed. The result of this study supports a previous hypothesis that suggests that the 11-year solar cycle signals on the Earth's surface are produced through a downward penetration of the changes in the stratospheric circulation. Furthermore, the spatial structure of the signal is modulated by its interaction with the ocean circulation.
著者
Meiji Honda Akira Yamazaki Akira Kuwano-Yoshida Yusuke Kimura Katsushi Iwamoto
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.12, pp.259-264, 2016 (Released:2016-09-22)
参考文献数
17
被引用文献数
1

Synoptic conditions causing an extreme snowfall event in the Kanto-Koshin district occurred on 14-15 February 2014 are investigated through a reanalysis data set. Associated with a developing cyclone passing the south coast of Japan, persistent snowfall exceeding more than 24 hours over the Kofu-Basin resulted in 112 cm snowfall at Kofu. Slow progress of the south-coast cyclone also contributed to the long snowfall duration. An anticyclone developed over the northern Japan (∼1032 hPa) also contributed to this extreme snowfall. This anticyclone brought warm and moist air inflow by southeasterlies forming moisture flux convergence over the Kanto-Koshin district on the morning of 14th when snowfall started in the Koshin district in spite that the south-coast cyclone was located to the south of Kyushu. Further, ageostrophic cold northerlies with high pressure extension from the anticyclone by “cold-air damming (CAD)” would suppress warming with the approaching south-coast cyclone and keep snowfall until the morning of 15th. In other four heavy snowfall events at Kofu, snowfall durations were almost 12 hours. Although anticyclone to the north and CAD were identified in each case, the moisture transport from the southeast was not evident and moisture flux convergence was not formed earlier.
著者
Masatake E. Hori Kazuhiro Oshima
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.69-73, 2018 (Released:2018-06-26)
参考文献数
15

We use two groups of 100-member ensemble AGCM experiment to investigate the robustness and probabilistic nature of the Warm Arctic/Cold Eurasian (WACE) pattern with or without strong warming SST trend and sea-ice reduction. Model ensembles successfully simulate a distribution of trend coefficients close to that of observation. Results show that the recent trend in WACE pattern is driven by the warming of the Arctic SST, but the pattern itself is not amplified between the warming and non-warming experiment and cannot explain the current cooling trend of the mid-latitudes. We argue that the difference in sea-ice condition regulates the more extreme cases of the pattern thereby contributing to the positive trend in WACE pattern similar to that of observation.
著者
Hironobu IWABUCHI Nurfiena Sagita PUTRI Masanori SAITO Yuka TOKORO Miho SEKIGUCHI Ping YANG Bryan A. BAUM
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.96B, pp.27-42, 2018 (Released:2018-03-16)
参考文献数
35
被引用文献数
1

An algorithm for retrieving the macroscopic, physical, and optical properties of clouds from thermal infrared measurements is applied to the Himawari-8 multiband observations. A sensitivity study demonstrates that the addition of the single CO2 band of Himawari-8 is effective for the estimation of cloud top height. For validation, retrieved cloud properties are compared systematically with collocated active remote sensing counterparts with small time lags. While retrievals agree reasonably for single-layer clouds, multilayer cloud systems with optically thin upper clouds overlying lower clouds are the major source of error in the present algorithm. Validation of cloud products is critical for identifying the characteristics, advantages, and limitation of each product and should be continued in the future.  As an application example, data are analyzed for eight days in the vicinity of the New Guinea to study the diurnal cycle of the cloud system. The present cloud property analysis investigates cloud evolution through separation of different cloud types and reveals typical features of diurnal cycles related to the topography. Over land, middle clouds increase from 0900 to 1200 local solar time (LST), deep convective clouds develop rapidly during 1200-1700 LST with a subsequent increase in cirrus and cirrostratus cloud amounts. Over the ocean near coastlines, a broad peak of convective cloud fraction is seen in the early morning. The present study demonstrates the utility of frequent observations by Himawari-8 for life cycle study of cloud systems, owing to the ability to capture their continuous temporal variations.
著者
Tomoro Yanase Tetsuya Takemi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.116-120, 2018 (Released:2018-08-21)
参考文献数
29

This study investigates the representation of the diurnal variation of cumulus convection in radiative-convective equilibrium states in an area of 200 km by 200 km without large-scale forcing by using a non-hydrostatic model with sub-kilometer horizontal resolutions. The experiment with the horizontal resolution of 200 m successfully reproduced the diurnal variability of the trimodal characteristics of cumulus convection. We demonstrated that the horizontal resolution dependence largely affects the trimodal structure of clouds and the characteristics of precipitation and its diurnal variation. With the coarse resolution of 1600 m, a signature of convective aggregation appeared and the diurnal variation of convection was not clearly seen. We further examined the mechanisms for the diurnal variation of cumulus convection by focusing on the temporal and vertical variations of radiative and latent heating anomalies. The diurnal variability of the static stability caused by both radiative and latent heating plays a role in characterizing the diurnal variation of the cumulus convection.
著者
UEDA Hiroaki MIWA Kana KAMAE Youichi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-044, (Released:2018-05-14)

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) activity to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and coherent sea surface temperate (SST) anomaly in the Indian Ocean (IO) is investigated with a particular focus on the decaying phase of El Niño. The TC anomalies are obtained from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF). This dataset is based on 100-member ensemble simulations for the period of 1951-2010 by use of the state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed SST as well as the historical radiative forcing. AGCM utilized in the d4PDF is the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model with about 60km horizontal resolution. Our analysis reveals a prolonged decrease in TC frequency over the tropical western Pacific during the post El Niño years until the boreal fall. Dominance of anomalous anticyclone (AAC) over the western Pacific induced by the delayed warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is the main factor for the suppressed TC activity rather than the local SST change. In contrast, the TC number over the South China Sea tends to increase during the post-El Niño fall (September to November). The physical reason can be ascribed to the weakening of AAC associated with the termination of IO warming. Thus we demonstrate that the effect of the IO warming should be taken into account when the ENSO is considered as an environmental factor for predicting TC activity.
著者
YUMIMOTO Keiya TANAKA Taichu Y. YOSHIDA Mayumi KIKUCHI Maki NAGAO Takashi M. MURAKAMI Hiroshi MAKI Takashi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-035, (Released:2018-04-08)

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) launched a next-generation geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS), Himawari-8, on October 7, 2014 and began its operation on July 7, 2015. The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard Himawari-8 has 16 observational bands that enable the retrieval of full-disk maps of aerosol optical properties (AOPs), including aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and the Ångström exponent (AE) with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, we combined an aerosol transport model with the Himawari-8 AOT using the data assimilation method, and performed aerosol assimilation and forecasting experiments on smoke from an intensive wildfire that occurred over Siberia between May 15 and 18, 2016. To effectively utilize the high observational frequency of Himawari-8, we assimilated 1-h merged AOTs generated through the combination of six AOT snapshots taken over 10-min intervals, three times per day. The heavy smoke originating from the wildfire was transported eastward behind a low-pressure trough, and covered northern Japan from May 19 to 20. The southern part of the smoke plume then traveled westward, in a clockwise flow associated with high pressure. The forecast without assimilation reproduced the transport of the smoke to northern Japan; however, it underestimated AOT and the extinction coefficient compared with observed values, mainly due to errors in the emission inventory. Data assimilation with the Himawari-8 AOT compensated for the underestimation and successfully forecasted the unique C-shaped distribution of the smoke. In particular, the assimilation of the Himawari-8 AOT during May 18 greatly improved the forecast of the southern part of the smoke flow. Our results indicate that the inheritance of assimilation cycles and the assimilation of more recent observations led to better forecasting in this case of a continental smoke outflow.
著者
YOSHIDA Mayumi KIKUCHI Maki NAGAO Takashi M. MURAKAMI Hiroshi NOMAKI Tomoyuki HIGURASHI Akiko
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-039, (Released:2018-04-15)
被引用文献数
1

We develop a common retrieval algorithm of aerosol properties such as aerosol optical thickness, single-scattering albedo, and Ångström exponent for various satellite sensors over both land and ocean. The three main features of this algorithm are as follows: (1) automatic selection of the optimum channels for aerosol retrieval by introducing a weight for each channel to the object function, (2) setting common candidate aerosol models over land and ocean, and (3) preparation of lookup tables for every 1 nm in the range from 300 to 2500 nm of wavelength and weighting the radiance using the response function for each sensor. This method was applied to the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on board the Japan Meteorological Agency’s geostationary satellite Himawari-8, and the results depicted an approximately continuous estimate of aerosol optical thickness over land and ocean. Further, the aerosol optical thickness estimated using our algorithm was generally consistent with the products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Additionally, we applied our algorithm to MODIS on board the Aqua satellite and then compared the retrieval results to those that were obtained using AHI. The comparisons of the aerosol optical thickness retrieved from different sensors with different viewing angles on board the geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites suggest an underestimation of aerosol optical thickness at the backscattering direction (or overestimated in other directions). The retrieval of aerosol properties using a common algorithm allows us to identify a weakness in the algorithm, which includes the assumptions in the aerosol model (e.g. sphericity or size distiribution).
著者
Keiichi ISHIOKA
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.96, no.2, pp.241-249, 2018 (Released:2018-03-27)
参考文献数
18

A new recurrence formula to calculate the associated Legendre functions is proposed for efficient computation of the spherical harmonic transform. This new recurrence formula makes the best use of the fused multiply–add (FMA) operations implemented in modern computers. The computational speeds in calculating the spherical harmonic transform are compared between a numerical code in which the new recurrence formula is implemented and another code using the traditional recurrence formula. This comparison shows that implementation of the new recurrence formula contributes to a faster transform. Furthermore, a scheme to maintain the accuracy of the transform, even when the truncation wavenumber is huge, is also explained.
著者
Tetsuya Takemi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.ii-iii, 2018 (Released:2018-01-25)
参考文献数
2

The Editorial Committee of Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA) gives The SOLA Award to outstanding paper(s) published each year. I am pleased to announce that The SOLA Award in 2017 is going to be presented to the paper by Dr. Hiroaki Miura, entitled with “Coupling the hexagonal B1-grid and B2-grid to avoid computational mode problem of the hexagonal ZM-grid” (Miura 2017), and to the paper by Dr. Daisuke Goto et al., entitled with “Vertical profiles and temporal variations of greenhouse gases in the stratosphere over Syowa Station, Antarctica” (Goto et al. 2017).
著者
Lin Chen Lu Wang Tim Li De-Zheng Sun
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.126-131, 2018 (Released:2018-09-12)
参考文献数
55

The study presents the contrasting characteristics of cloud-radiative feedbacks to the cold tongue (CT) and warm pool (WP) El Niño (EN). The maximum sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the CT-EN are located in the far-eastern Pacific. However, the maximum responses of the shortwave- and longwave- cloud-radiative forcing (SWCRF and LWCRF) to the CT-EN warming are centered near the dateline, showing 70° westward shift relative to the maximum SSTA center of CT-WN. In contrast, the maximum responses of the SWCRF and LWCRF to the WP-EN warming show only slight westward shift relative to the maximum SSTA center. The contrasting cloud-radiative feedbacks to the two types of ENs can be traced back to the contrasting precipitation feedbacks, which is associated with the convection threshold. When the warm SSTA of CT-EN occurs in the relatively cold eastern Pacific, the total SST in-situ may not exceed the convection threshold. Therefore, the induced precipitation anomaly would occur towards the warm western Pacific, and the corresponding cloud cover and cloud-radiative feedbacks would exhibit an apparent westward shift. As the warm SSTA of WP-EN occurs in the relatively warm central Pacific, the corresponding responses of the anomalous fields to the WP-EN show only slight westward displacement.
著者
OTSUKA Michiko SEKO Hiromu SHIMOJI Kazuki YAMASHITA Koji
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-034, (Released:2018-03-23)

Rapid scan atmospheric motion vectors (RS-AMV) were derived with an algorithm developed by the Meteorological Satellite Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from Himawari-8 rapid scan imagery over the area around Japan. They were computed every 10 min for seven different channels, namely, the visible channel (VIS), near infrared and infrared channels (IR), three water vapor absorption channels (WV), and CO2 absorption channel (CO2), from image triplets with time intervals of 2.5 min for VIS and 5 min for the other six channels. In June 2016, the amount of data was increased by more than 20 times compared to the number of routinely used AMVs. To exploit these high-resolution data in mesoscale data assimilation for the improvement of short-range forecasts, data verification and assimilation experiments were conducted. The RS-AMVs were of sufficiently good quality for assimilation and consistent overall with winds from JMA’s mesoscale analyses, radiosonde, and wind profiler observations. Errors were slightly larger in WV than in VIS and IR channels. Significant negative biases relative to sonde winds were seen at high levels in VIS, IR, and CO2, while slightly positive biases were noticeable in WV at mid- to high levels. Data assimilation experiments with the JMA’s non-hydrostatic model based Variational Data Assimilation System (JNoVA) on a cold vortex event in June 2016 were conducted using RS-AMVs from seven channels. The wind forecasts improved slightly in early forecast hours before 12 hours in northern Japan, over which the vortex passed during the assimilation period. They also showed small improvement at low levels when averaged over the whole forecast period. The results varied slightly depending on the channels used for assimilation, which might be caused by different error characteristics of RS-AMVs in different channels.
著者
TOCHIMOTO Eigo NIINO Hiroshi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-043, (Released:2018-04-27)

This study used the JRA-55 reanalysis dataset to analyze the structure and environment of extratropical cyclones (ECs) that spawned tornadoes (tornadic ECs: TECs) between 1961 and 2011 in Japan. Composite analysis indicated that the differences between the structure and environment of TECs and those of ECs that did not spawn tornadoes (non-tornadic ECs: NTECs) vary with the seasons. In spring (March–May), TECs are associated with stronger upper-level potential vorticity and colder mid-level temperature than NTECs. The colder air at the mid-level contributes to the increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) of TECs. TECs in winter (December–February: DJF) and those northward of 40°N in autumn (September–November: SON) are accompanied by larger CAPE than are NTECs. The larger CAPE for TECs in DJF is caused by larger moisture and warmer temperature at low levels, and that for TECs northward of 40°N in SON (NSON) is caused by the colder mid-level temperature associated with an upper-level trough. The distribution of the energy helicity index also shows significant differences between TECs and NTECs for DJF and NSON. On the other hand, the distribution of the 0–1 km storm relative environmental helicity (SREH) shows no significant differences between TECs and NTECs in most seasons except DJF. A comparison of TECs between Japan and the United States (US) shows that SREH and CAPE are noticeably larger in the US. It is suggested that these differences occur because TECs in the US (Japan) develop over land (ocean), which exerts more (less) surface friction and diurnal heating.
著者
MISUMI Ryohei UJI Yasushi TOBO Yutaka MIURA Kazuhiko UETAKE Jun IWAMOTO Yoko MAESAKA Takeshi IWANAMI Koyuru
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-040, (Released:2018-04-13)

Continuous observations of cloud droplet size distributions (DSDs) in low-level stratiform clouds have been conducted at a height of 458 m from Tokyo Skytree (a 634-m high broadcasting tower in Tokyo) using a cloud droplet spectrometer. In this report, the characteristics of cloud parameters related to the cloud DSD from June to December 2016 are presented. The mean cloud droplet number concentration (Nc), average diameters, and effective diameters of cloud droplets in non-drizzling clouds were 213 cm-3, 7.3 μm, and 9.5 μm, respectively, which are close to the reported values for continental stratiform clouds. The relationship between the liquid water content (LWC; g m-3), Nc (cm-3) and radar reflectivity (Z; mm6 m-3) was estimated as LWC = 0.17Nc0.50 Z0.45, with a coefficient of determination ( R 2) of 0.93. The observed cloud DSDs were well fitted by a lognormal distribution and the average median diameter of the fitted DSD was 6.6 μm.
著者
Prabir K. Patra Masayuki Takigawa Shingo Watanabe Naveen Chandra Kentaro Ishijima Yousuke Yamashita
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.91-96, 2018 (Released:2018-07-21)
参考文献数
37

The accuracy of chemical tracer simulations by atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)-based chemistry-transport models (ACTMs) depends on the quality of AGCM transport properties, even when the meteorology is nudged towards the reanalysis fields. Here we show that significant improvements in tracer distribution are achieved when hybrid vertical coordinate is implemented in MIROC4.0 AGCM, compared to its predecessors AGCM5.7b based on sigma coordinate. Only explicitly resolved gravity waves are propagated into the stratosphere in MIROC4-ACTM. The MIROC4-ACTM produces “age-of-air” up to about 5 years in the tropical upper stratosphere (∼1 hPa) and about 6 years in the polar middle stratosphere (∼10 hPa), in agreement with observational estimates. Comparisons of MIROC4-ACTM simulation with observed sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) in the troposphere also show remarkable improvements over the AGCM57b-ACTM simulation. MIROC4-ACTM is characterized by weaker convective mass flux and thus older age of air in the tropical troposphere, relative to AGCM57b-ACTM. The role of convective transport on tracer simulations is depicted using vertical cross-sections of 222Rn (radon) distributions. Both the ACTM versions show similar results when compared with 222Rn measurements at remote sites. All aspects of tracer transport in MIROC4-ACTM is promising for inverse modelling of greenhouse gases sources and sinks at reduced bias.
著者
Asuka Suzuki-Parker Hiroyuki Kusaka Izuru Takayabu Koji Dairaku Noriko N. Ishizaki Suryun Ham
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.97-104, 2018 (Released:2018-07-27)
参考文献数
49

Targeting to East Asian summer monsoon for the first time, this study presents an assessment of projection uncertainty in ensemble dynamical downscaling (DDS) simulations. Based on 12-member DDS simulations comprised of three global climate models (GCMs) and four regional climate models (RCMs), we evaluate contributions of GCM and RCM uncertainty to the total uncertainty of summer-time precipitation projections around Japan. Our results show that contribution of RCM uncertainty can be comparable to that of GCM uncertainty in magnitudes. This finding draws a distinction from the past studies showing the dominance of GCM uncertainty. Most notably, our results show that RCM uncertainty for number of precipitating days appears around and over the land. RCM uncertainty for precipitation amounts also shows a dependence on topography but to a lessor degree. These RCM uncertainty characteristics are potentially linked to the difference in various RCM configurations such as physics schemes and model topography. In contrast, GCM uncertainty mostly appears over the ocean, which can be attributed to the difference in the GCM's future projections of East Asian summer monsoon. Our finding may be of an importance for water disaster and water resource management with DDS.
著者
Ryohei MISUMI Namiko SAKURAI Takeshi MAESAKA Shin-ichi SUZUKI Shingo SHIMIZU Koyuru IWANAMI
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.96A, pp.51-66, 2018 (Released:2018-02-19)
参考文献数
26

Convective storms are frequently initiated over mountains under weak synoptic forcing conditions. However, the initiation process of such convective storms is not well understood due to a lack of observations, especially the transition process from non-precipitating cumuli to precipitating convective clouds. To investigate the initiation process, we conducted observations around the mountains in the Kanto region, Japan on 18 August 2011 using a 35 GHz (Ka-band) Doppler radar and a pair of digital cameras. The evolution of convective clouds was classified into three stages: convective clouds visible but not detected by the Ka-band radar (stage 0), convective clouds detectable by the Ka-band radar with reflectivity below 15 dBZ (stage 1), and convective clouds accompanied by descending echoes corresponding to precipitation (stage 2). During the transition process from stage 1 to stage 2, weak radar echoes rose to the higher level and reflectivity rapidly increased. This phenomenon suggests that drizzle particles produced in a preexisting convective cloud were lifted by a newly developed updraft, and raindrops were formed rapidly by coalescence of the drizzle particles and cloud droplets. This hypothetical process explains the precipitation echo formation in the lower layer frequently observed in the mountainous area in the Kanto region.