著者
Kosuke Ito Hiroyuki Yamada Munehiko Yamaguchi Tetsuo Nakazawa Norio Nagahama Kensaku Shimizu Tadayasu Ohigashi Taro Shinoda Kazuhisa Tsuboki
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.105-110, 2018 (Released:2018-07-28)
参考文献数
30

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Lan was observed on 21-22 October 2017 by GPS dropsondes during the first aircraft missions of the Tropical Cyclones-Pacific Asian Research Campaign for the Improvement of Intensity Estimations/Forecasts (T-PARCII). To evaluate the impact of dropsondes on forecast skill, 12 36-h forecasts were conducted using a Japan Meteorological Agency non-hydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) with a JMA-NHM-based mesoscale four-dimensional data assimilation (DA) system. Track forecast skill improved over all forecast times with the assimilation of the dropsonde data. The improvement rate was 8-16% for 27-36-h forecasts. Minimum sea level pressure (Pmin) forecasts were generally degenerated (improved) for relatively short-term (long-term) forecasts by adding the dropsonde data, and maximum wind speed (Vmax) forecasts were degenerated. Some of the changes in the track and Vmax forecasts were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. It is notable that the dropsonde-derived estimate of Pmin was closer to the real-time analysis by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo than the RSMC Tokyo best track analysis. The degeneration in intensity forecast skill due to uncertainties in the best track data is discussed.
著者
SAITO Kazuo KUNII Masaru ARAKI Kentaro
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-027, (Released:2018-02-11)
被引用文献数
2

Local heavy rainfall of about 100 mm h-1 occurred in Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture on 26 August 2011. This rain was brought by a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that developed near a stationary front that slowly moved southward. In an analysis using geostationary multi-purpose satellite rapid scan images and dense automated weather station networks, development of the MCS occurred after the merging of sea breezes from the east (Kashima-nada) and the south (Tokyo Bay). Numerical experiments by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nonhydrostatic model (NHM) with horizontal resolutions of 10 km and 2 km using mesoscale 4D-VAR analysis of JMA for initial conditions tended to predict the position of intense rainfall areas west of observed positions. In the mesoscale ensemble forecast using perturbations from JMA’s one-week global ensemble prediction system (EPS) forecast, some ensemble members showed enhanced precipitation around Tokyo, but false precipitation areas appeared north of the Kanto and Hokuriku Districts. As an attempt to improve the model forecast, we modified the model, reducing the lower limit of subgrid deviation of water vapor condensation to diagnose the cloudiness for radiation. In the modified model simulation, surface temperatures around Tokyo increased by about 1°C and the position of the intense precipitation was improved, but the false precipitation areas in the Hokuriku District were also enhanced in the ensemble member which brought a better forecast than the control run. We also conducted ensemble prediction using a singular vector method based on NHM. One of the ensemble members unstabilized the lower atmosphere on the windward side of the Kanto District and suppressed the false precipitation in the Hokuriku District, and observed characteristics of the local heavy rainfall were well reproduced by NHM with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. A conceptual model of the initiation of deep convection by the formation of a low-level convergence zone succeeding merging of the two sea breezes from the east and south is proposed based on observations, previous studies, and numerical simulation results. In this event, the northerly ambient wind played an important role on the occurrence of the local heavy rainfall around Tokyo by suppressing the northward intrusion of the sea breeze from the south.
著者
Seiji Yukimoto Kunihiko Kodera Rémi Thiéblemont
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.13, pp.53-58, 2017 (Released:2017-04-04)
参考文献数
29
被引用文献数
1

A delayed response of the winter North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) to the 11-year solar cycle has been observed and modeled in recent studies. However, the mechanisms creating this 2-4-year delay to the solar cycle have still not been well-understood. This study examines the effects of the 11-year solar cycle and the resulting modulation in the strength of the winter stratospheric polar vortex. A coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model is used to simulate these effects by introducing a mechanistic forcing in the stratosphere. The intensified stratospheric polar vortex is shown to induce positive and negative ocean temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean. The positive ocean temperature anomaly migrated northward and was amplified when it approached an oceanic frontal zone approximately 3 years after the forcing became maximum. This delayed ocean response is similar to that observed. The result of this study supports a previous hypothesis that suggests that the 11-year solar cycle signals on the Earth's surface are produced through a downward penetration of the changes in the stratospheric circulation. Furthermore, the spatial structure of the signal is modulated by its interaction with the ocean circulation.
著者
Yuhei Yamamoto Hirohiko Ishikawa
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.179-184, 2018 (Released:2018-11-20)
参考文献数
22

This paper provides the first attempt to investigate the spatial variability of diurnal change patterns of land surface temperature (LST) in urban areas of Japan by applying principal component analysis on LST data retrieved from Himawari-8 geostationary satellite data. The Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas were the focus of the analysis, and the target days were days with zero cloud cover in summer and winter. The results of the analysis showed that diurnal cycles of LST are mainly formed by two temporal change patterns in both seasons. For the summer case, the first two principal components (PCs) represented the temporal change patterns related to the amplitude and phase, respectively. For the winter case, the first two PCs represented the temporal change patterns related to the amplitude and gradual change in LST throughout the day, respectively. Results suggest that these temporal change patterns in both seasons have spatial variability partially dictated by land use and wind speed/direction.
著者
Nawo Eguchi Kunihiko Kodera
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.6, pp.137-140, 2010 (Released:2010-10-22)
参考文献数
18
被引用文献数
10 10

The impact of stratospheric sudden warming event in September 2007 on the tropics was investigated based on satellite data (CALIOP, MLS and TRMM PR). Equatorial temperature and water vapor at 100 hPa decreased by about 1 K and 1 ppmv within 10 days, respectively. Changes in tropical clouds are observed together with the occurrence of the SSW as i) frequent formation of higher-level cirrus clouds over the Maritime Continent, to where water vapor was transported from Asian Monsoon and where the lowest temperature occurred, ii) intensification of deep convective activity in the TTL over African continent, and iii) southward shift of the convective clouds over South American continent.
著者
Toshiya Yoshida Tetsuya Takemi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.174-178, 2018 (Released:2018-11-18)
参考文献数
17
被引用文献数
1

Effects of obstacle-height variability on mixing length and dispersive stress are investigated by conducting large-eddy simulations of airflows over arrays of roughness obstacles with variable height. We evaluate differences among three simulations of flows over obstacles with no, moderate, and high obstacle-height variability. Within the canopies, effective mixing length shows one local maximum and minimum in the simulation with no obstacle-height variability but two maxima and minima in the simulations with obstacle-height variability. The number of the local maxima and minima corresponds to that of the shear layers seen at the heights of obstacle tops. Enhanced dispersive stress appears within the canopy between the heights of the lower- and higher-obstacle tops in the simulations with obstacle-height variability. Particularly in the simulations with high obstacle-height variability, the magnitude of dispersive stress becomes comparable to that of the Reynolds stress at the height of the lower-obstacle top. These results suggest that actual urban areas with high building-height variability should significantly affect properties of mixing length and dispersive stress.
著者
Meiji Honda Akira Yamazaki Akira Kuwano-Yoshida Yusuke Kimura Katsushi Iwamoto
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.12, pp.259-264, 2016 (Released:2016-09-22)
参考文献数
17
被引用文献数
1

Synoptic conditions causing an extreme snowfall event in the Kanto-Koshin district occurred on 14-15 February 2014 are investigated through a reanalysis data set. Associated with a developing cyclone passing the south coast of Japan, persistent snowfall exceeding more than 24 hours over the Kofu-Basin resulted in 112 cm snowfall at Kofu. Slow progress of the south-coast cyclone also contributed to the long snowfall duration. An anticyclone developed over the northern Japan (∼1032 hPa) also contributed to this extreme snowfall. This anticyclone brought warm and moist air inflow by southeasterlies forming moisture flux convergence over the Kanto-Koshin district on the morning of 14th when snowfall started in the Koshin district in spite that the south-coast cyclone was located to the south of Kyushu. Further, ageostrophic cold northerlies with high pressure extension from the anticyclone by “cold-air damming (CAD)” would suppress warming with the approaching south-coast cyclone and keep snowfall until the morning of 15th. In other four heavy snowfall events at Kofu, snowfall durations were almost 12 hours. Although anticyclone to the north and CAD were identified in each case, the moisture transport from the southeast was not evident and moisture flux convergence was not formed earlier.
著者
Hirotaka Kamahori Osamu Arakawa
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.165-169, 2018 (Released:2018-11-09)
参考文献数
18

Tropical cyclone (TC) induced precipitation (TCP) over Japan is evaluated with the rain gauge observation based gridded dataset APHRO_JP. The TC–influenced frequency reaches a maximum in the Nansei Islands and decreases monotonically with latitude. On the other hand, the distribution of TCP indicates different characteristics from the one of TC–influenced frequency. The largest annual TCP, 500 mm yr−1 or more, occurs over eastern Kyushu (E-Kyushu), southern Shikoku (S-Shikoku), and the eastern Kii peninsula (E-Kii), where it accounts for 15% or more of the total precipitation. The maximum daily TCP amounts to 200 mm d−1 in those three areas, which are all located on the eastern side of Japan and correspond to eastward or southeastward topographic inclines. A significant relationship is found between the amount of annual TCP and topographic incline, and the large amount of TCP concentrates in the eastward or the southeastward inclines. The extreme daily TCP once every 50 years is also evaluated. The extreme daily TCP is estimated to be 500 mm d−1 comparable to the climatological annual TCP in E-Kyushu, S-Shikoku, and E-Kii. These three areas appear to be the most hazardous part of Japan in terms of TCP.
著者
Haruka Ishizaki Hiroshi Matsuyama
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.192-196, 2018 (Released:2018-12-14)
参考文献数
23

Radar/Raingauge-Analyzed Precipitation (RA) represents 1 km-grid precipitation after 2006 created by combining radar precipitation and ground precipitation, i.e., Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) of Japan Meteorological Agency along with ground data observed by other organizations. Although RA is slightly greater than ground precipitation, no earlier studies investigated the spatial distribution of this accuracy across Japan using 1 km grid data, as clarified in this study. We selected hourly data of RA and AMeDAS located closest each other, for which miss rates were less than 10% in 2006-2010. We then investigated the distribution of the annual precipitation ratio (RA/AMeDAS). The ratio diverged in the smaller annual precipitation, but converged to ca. 1.2 for larger annual precipitation. By setting the observational area of 46 radars across Japan using Thiessen method, we investigated the relation between the annual precipitation ratio and the distance from the radar to AMeDAS station. We found only negative relation was statistically significant. As a possible reason for this relation, we considered that RA far from the radar is affected by the attenuating and shadowing effect of heavy rainfall near the radar.
著者
Masatake E. Hori Kazuhiro Oshima
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.69-73, 2018 (Released:2018-06-26)
参考文献数
15

We use two groups of 100-member ensemble AGCM experiment to investigate the robustness and probabilistic nature of the Warm Arctic/Cold Eurasian (WACE) pattern with or without strong warming SST trend and sea-ice reduction. Model ensembles successfully simulate a distribution of trend coefficients close to that of observation. Results show that the recent trend in WACE pattern is driven by the warming of the Arctic SST, but the pattern itself is not amplified between the warming and non-warming experiment and cannot explain the current cooling trend of the mid-latitudes. We argue that the difference in sea-ice condition regulates the more extreme cases of the pattern thereby contributing to the positive trend in WACE pattern similar to that of observation.
著者
Hironobu IWABUCHI Nurfiena Sagita PUTRI Masanori SAITO Yuka TOKORO Miho SEKIGUCHI Ping YANG Bryan A. BAUM
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.96B, pp.27-42, 2018 (Released:2018-03-16)
参考文献数
35
被引用文献数
2

An algorithm for retrieving the macroscopic, physical, and optical properties of clouds from thermal infrared measurements is applied to the Himawari-8 multiband observations. A sensitivity study demonstrates that the addition of the single CO2 band of Himawari-8 is effective for the estimation of cloud top height. For validation, retrieved cloud properties are compared systematically with collocated active remote sensing counterparts with small time lags. While retrievals agree reasonably for single-layer clouds, multilayer cloud systems with optically thin upper clouds overlying lower clouds are the major source of error in the present algorithm. Validation of cloud products is critical for identifying the characteristics, advantages, and limitation of each product and should be continued in the future.  As an application example, data are analyzed for eight days in the vicinity of the New Guinea to study the diurnal cycle of the cloud system. The present cloud property analysis investigates cloud evolution through separation of different cloud types and reveals typical features of diurnal cycles related to the topography. Over land, middle clouds increase from 0900 to 1200 local solar time (LST), deep convective clouds develop rapidly during 1200-1700 LST with a subsequent increase in cirrus and cirrostratus cloud amounts. Over the ocean near coastlines, a broad peak of convective cloud fraction is seen in the early morning. The present study demonstrates the utility of frequent observations by Himawari-8 for life cycle study of cloud systems, owing to the ability to capture their continuous temporal variations.
著者
YOSHIDA Mayumi KIKUCHI Maki NAGAO Takashi M. MURAKAMI Hiroshi NOMAKI Tomoyuki HIGURASHI Akiko
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-039, (Released:2018-04-15)
被引用文献数
5

We develop a common retrieval algorithm of aerosol properties such as aerosol optical thickness, single-scattering albedo, and Ångström exponent for various satellite sensors over both land and ocean. The three main features of this algorithm are as follows: (1) automatic selection of the optimum channels for aerosol retrieval by introducing a weight for each channel to the object function, (2) setting common candidate aerosol models over land and ocean, and (3) preparation of lookup tables for every 1 nm in the range from 300 to 2500 nm of wavelength and weighting the radiance using the response function for each sensor. This method was applied to the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on board the Japan Meteorological Agency’s geostationary satellite Himawari-8, and the results depicted an approximately continuous estimate of aerosol optical thickness over land and ocean. Further, the aerosol optical thickness estimated using our algorithm was generally consistent with the products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Additionally, we applied our algorithm to MODIS on board the Aqua satellite and then compared the retrieval results to those that were obtained using AHI. The comparisons of the aerosol optical thickness retrieved from different sensors with different viewing angles on board the geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites suggest an underestimation of aerosol optical thickness at the backscattering direction (or overestimated in other directions). The retrieval of aerosol properties using a common algorithm allows us to identify a weakness in the algorithm, which includes the assumptions in the aerosol model (e.g. sphericity or size distiribution).
著者
Tomoro Yanase Tetsuya Takemi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.116-120, 2018 (Released:2018-08-21)
参考文献数
29

This study investigates the representation of the diurnal variation of cumulus convection in radiative-convective equilibrium states in an area of 200 km by 200 km without large-scale forcing by using a non-hydrostatic model with sub-kilometer horizontal resolutions. The experiment with the horizontal resolution of 200 m successfully reproduced the diurnal variability of the trimodal characteristics of cumulus convection. We demonstrated that the horizontal resolution dependence largely affects the trimodal structure of clouds and the characteristics of precipitation and its diurnal variation. With the coarse resolution of 1600 m, a signature of convective aggregation appeared and the diurnal variation of convection was not clearly seen. We further examined the mechanisms for the diurnal variation of cumulus convection by focusing on the temporal and vertical variations of radiative and latent heating anomalies. The diurnal variability of the static stability caused by both radiative and latent heating plays a role in characterizing the diurnal variation of the cumulus convection.
著者
UEDA Hiroaki MIWA Kana KAMAE Youichi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-044, (Released:2018-05-14)

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) activity to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and coherent sea surface temperate (SST) anomaly in the Indian Ocean (IO) is investigated with a particular focus on the decaying phase of El Niño. The TC anomalies are obtained from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF). This dataset is based on 100-member ensemble simulations for the period of 1951-2010 by use of the state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed SST as well as the historical radiative forcing. AGCM utilized in the d4PDF is the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model with about 60km horizontal resolution. Our analysis reveals a prolonged decrease in TC frequency over the tropical western Pacific during the post El Niño years until the boreal fall. Dominance of anomalous anticyclone (AAC) over the western Pacific induced by the delayed warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is the main factor for the suppressed TC activity rather than the local SST change. In contrast, the TC number over the South China Sea tends to increase during the post-El Niño fall (September to November). The physical reason can be ascribed to the weakening of AAC associated with the termination of IO warming. Thus we demonstrate that the effect of the IO warming should be taken into account when the ENSO is considered as an environmental factor for predicting TC activity.
著者
Deqiang Liu Xubin Zhang Yerong Feng Ning Pan Chuanrong Huang
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.203-209, 2018 (Released:2018-12-26)
参考文献数
39

Using data from nine ensemble prediction systems (EPSs), we analyze uncertainties in forecasted tropical cyclone TC track (TCT), TC intensity (TCI) and relevant heavy rainfall (TCHR) for Typhoon Soudelor (2015) as it affected the Taiwan Strait and surrounding regions. The largest uncertainties in track predictions occurred when Soudelor traversed Taiwan and when it recurved northeastward after making landfall in mainland China. These large uncertainties seem to be ascribed to the topography of Taiwan and the spread of the perturbed steering flows, respectively. TCI spread was stronger before rather than after the Soudelor made landfall, with regional EPSs having stronger spread than global EPSs. This TCI spread showed high correlation with the evolution of the spread of vertical wind shear at the location of TC center. Large spread in 24-h TCHR during Soudelor's landfall correlated with low-level jets and convergences in most EPSs, and TC track variation had played important role in TCHR uncertainty. At last, the spread–skill relationships among different groups are explored.
著者
JINNO Takuya MIYAKAWA Tomoki SATOH Masaki
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2019-017, (Released:2018-12-07)

In August 2016, a monsoon gyre persisted over the western North Pacific and was associated with the genesis of multiple devastating tropical cyclones. A series of hindcast simulations was performed using the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) to reproduce the temporal evolution of this monsoon gyre. The simulations initiated at dates during the mature stage of the monsoon gyre successfully reproduced its termination and the subsequent intensification of the Bonin high, while the simulations initiated before the formation and during the developing stage of the gyre failed to reproduce subsequent gyre evolution even at a short lead time. These experiments further suggest a possibility that the development of the Bonin high is related to the termination of the monsoon gyre. High predictability of the termination is likely due to the predictable mid-latitudinal signals that intensify the Bonin high.
著者
ITO Rui AOYAGI Toshinori HORI Naoto OH'IZUMI Mitsuo KAWASE Hiroaki DAIRAKU Koji SEINO Naoko SASAKI Hidetaka
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-053, (Released:2018-08-24)

Accurate simulation of urban snow accumulation/melting processes is important to provide reliable information about climate change in snowy urban areas. The Japan Meteorological Agency operates a square prism urban canopy (SPUC) model within their regional model to simulate urban atmosphere. However, presently, this model takes no account of snow processes. Therefore, in this study, we enhanced the SPUC by introducing a snowpack scheme, and the simulated snow over Japanese urban areas was assessed by comparing the snow depths from the enhanced SPUC and from a simple biosphere (iSiB) model with the observations. Snowpack schemes based on two approaches were implemented. The diagnostic approach (sSPUCdgn) uses empirical factors for snow temperature and melting/freezing amounts and the Penman equation for heat fluxes, whereas the prognostic approach (sSPUCprg) calculates snow temperatures using heat fluxes estimated from bulk equations. Both snowpack schemes enabled the model to accurately reproduce the seasonal variations and peaks in snow depth, but it is necessary to use sSPUCprg if we wish to consider the physical processes in the snow layer. Compared with iSiB, sSPUCprg resulted in a good performance for the seasonal variations in snow depth, and the error fell to 20 %. While iSiB overestimated the snow depth, a cold bias of over 1°C appeared in the daily mean temperature, which can be attributed to excessive decreases in the snow surface temperature. sSPUCprg reduces the bias by a different calculation method for the snow surface temperature and by the inclusion of heated building walls without snow; consequently, the simulated snow depth is improved. sSPUCprg generated a relationship between the seasonal variations in snowfall and snow depth close to the observed relationship, with the correlation coefficient getting large. Therefore, the simulation accuracy of snowfall becomes more crucial for simulating the surface snow processes precisely by the enhanced SPUC.
著者
Akiyoshi WADA Ryo OYAMA
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.96, no.6, pp.489-509, 2018 (Released:2018-11-22)
参考文献数
52

Typhoon Lionrock (2016) made landfall in the Pacific side of northern Japan. One of the intriguing events was consecutive deep convections (convective bursts, CBs) occurred before making landfall on 31 August. Lionrock paused the decay of the intensity of the storm, although sea surface cooling (SSC) was induced distinctly by Lionrock along the track. To examine the influence of CBs on changes in storm intensity during the decay phase, numerical simulations were conducted with a 3 km mesh coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model. The coupled model successfully simulated the occurrence of CBs north of the near-surface-convergence area, which was formed by the confluent of the storm's tangential winds with near-surface frictional spiral inflow from the surrounding region where the significant wave height was high. Simultaneously, the relatively fast translation and asymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) structure were maintained. Lower tropospheric horizontal moisture fluxes have enhanced around the convergence area, although SSC resulted in reduction of the air-sea latent heat fluxes within the storm's inner core. Local occurrences of upward moisture fluxes associated with CBs increased the mid-to-upper tropospheric condensational heating on the upstream side. This caused local increase in lower-tropospheric pressure gradient on the upstream side. This was favorable for pausing the decay of the simulated storm intensity even during the decay phase. Sensitivity experiments regarding the execution time of the coupled model showed that the vertical moisture fluxes and number of CBs could increase around the surface frictional convergence area ahead of the storm when the coupled model was not used. This suggests that the storm in mid-latitude could locally increase the maximum surface wind speed under favorable oceanic conditions. The number and distribution of CBs are indeed sensitive to oceanic conditions and are considered to affect the storm-track simulation and maximum surface wind speeds.
著者
Munehiko Yamaguchi Hiromi Owada Udai Shimada Masahiro Sawada Takeshi Iriguchi Kate D. Musgrave Mark DeMaria
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.138-143, 2018 (Released:2018-10-06)
参考文献数
22
被引用文献数
1

This study investigates prediction of TC intensity in the western North Pacific basin using a statistical-dynamical model called the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), with data sources in operations at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) such as the JMA/Global Spectral Model forecast fields. In addition to predicting the change in the maximum wind (Vmax) as in the original SHIPS technique, another version of SHIPS for predicting the change in the minimum sea-level pressure (Pmin) has been developed. With 13 years of training samples, a total of 26 predictors were selected from among 52 through stepwise regression. Based on three years of independent samples, the root mean square errors of both Vmax and Pmin by the 26-predictor SHIPS model were found to be much smaller than those of the JMA/GSM and a simple climatology and persistence intensity model, which JMA official intensity forecasts are currently mainly based on. The prediction accuracy was not sensitive to the number of predictors as long as the leading predictors were included. Benefits of operationalizing SHIPS include a reduction in the errors of the JMA official intensity forecasts and an extension of their forecast length beyond the current 3 days (e.g., 5 days).
著者
YUMIMOTO Keiya TANAKA Taichu Y. YOSHIDA Mayumi KIKUCHI Maki NAGAO Takashi M. MURAKAMI Hiroshi MAKI Takashi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-035, (Released:2018-04-08)
被引用文献数
1

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) launched a next-generation geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS), Himawari-8, on October 7, 2014 and began its operation on July 7, 2015. The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard Himawari-8 has 16 observational bands that enable the retrieval of full-disk maps of aerosol optical properties (AOPs), including aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and the Ångström exponent (AE) with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, we combined an aerosol transport model with the Himawari-8 AOT using the data assimilation method, and performed aerosol assimilation and forecasting experiments on smoke from an intensive wildfire that occurred over Siberia between May 15 and 18, 2016. To effectively utilize the high observational frequency of Himawari-8, we assimilated 1-h merged AOTs generated through the combination of six AOT snapshots taken over 10-min intervals, three times per day. The heavy smoke originating from the wildfire was transported eastward behind a low-pressure trough, and covered northern Japan from May 19 to 20. The southern part of the smoke plume then traveled westward, in a clockwise flow associated with high pressure. The forecast without assimilation reproduced the transport of the smoke to northern Japan; however, it underestimated AOT and the extinction coefficient compared with observed values, mainly due to errors in the emission inventory. Data assimilation with the Himawari-8 AOT compensated for the underestimation and successfully forecasted the unique C-shaped distribution of the smoke. In particular, the assimilation of the Himawari-8 AOT during May 18 greatly improved the forecast of the southern part of the smoke flow. Our results indicate that the inheritance of assimilation cycles and the assimilation of more recent observations led to better forecasting in this case of a continental smoke outflow.