著者

Ken Okumura Hirofumi Tomita Michikazu Nakai Eitaro Kodani Masaharu Akao Shinya Suzuki Kenshi Hayashi Mitsuaki Sawano Masahiko Goya Takeshi Yamashita Keiichi Fukuda Hisashi Ogawa Toyonobu Tsuda Mitsuaki Isobe Kazunori Toyoda Yoshihiro Miyamoto Hiroaki Miyata Tomonori Okamura Yusuke Sasahara for the J-RISK AF Research Group

出版者

The Japanese Circulation Society

雑誌

Circulation Journal (ISSN:13469843)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.CJ-20-1075, (Released:2021-03-25)

参考文献数

22

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Background:Recently, identification of independent risk factors for ischemic stroke in Japanese non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients was made by analyzing the 5 major Japanese registries: J-RHYTHM Registry, Fushimi AF Registry, Shinken Database, Keio interhospital Cardiovascular Studies, and the Hokuriku-Plus AF Registry.Methods and Results:The predictive value of the risk scheme in Japanese NVAF patients was assessed. Of 16,918 patients, 12,289 NVAF patients were analyzed (mean follow up, 649±181 days). Hazard ratios (HRs) of each significant, independent risk factor were determined by using adjusted Cox-hazard proportional analysis. Scoring system for ischemic stroke was created by transforming HR logarithmically and was estimated by c-statistic. During the 21,820 person-years follow up, 241 ischemic stroke events occurred. Significant risk factors were: being elderly (aged 75–84 years [E], HR=1.74), extreme elderly (≥85 years [EE], HR=2.41), having hypertension (H, HR=1.60), previous stroke (S, HR=2.75), type of AF (persistent/permanent) (T, HR=1.59), and low body mass index <18.5 kg/m2(L, HR=1.55) after adjusting for oral anticoagulant treatment. The score was assigned as follows: 1 point to H, E, L, and T, and 2 points to EE and S (HELT-E2S2score). The C-statistic, using this score, was 0.681 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.647–0.714), which was significantly higher than those using CHADS2(0.647; 95% CI=0.614–0.681, P=0.027 for comparison) and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (0.641; 95% CI=0.608–0.673, P=0.008).Conclusions:The HELT-E2S2score may be useful for identifying Japanese NVAF patients at risk of ischemic stroke.