著者

長友 謙治

出版者

ロシア・東欧学会

雑誌

ロシア・東欧研究 (ISSN:13486497)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2014, no.43, pp.135-152, 2014 (Released:2016-09-09)

参考文献数

30

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The USSR was one of the main grain importing countries, because their grain production was insufficient for domestic consumption, including livestock feeding. After the collapse of the USSR, Russia’s agricultural production was dramatically curtailed through the 1990s, but in the 2000s, Russia returned to the international grain market as an emerging and one of the main wheat exporting countries. The primary reason for Russia’s transformation from a grain importing to a grain exporting country was its dramatic decrease in feed grain consumption in the 1990s, which was caused by reduced livestock production and the recovery of grain production in the 2000s. Russia’s livestock production recovered substantially in the latter half of the 2000s, but the increase in Russia’s feed grain consumption has been relatively small. It seems meaningful to analyze this phenomenon and to anticipate, to what extent further recovery of Russia’s livestock production will influence its feed grain consumption and grain exporting capacity. This paper attempts this analysis by examining concentrate feed consumption (mostly of grain) in Russian agricultural enterprises by types of livestock products (beef, pork, milk, etc.) and the contribution of two factors (“quantity of livestock production” and “concentrated feed conversion ratio”) to changes in concentrate feed consumption. The results of this analysis reveal two main reasons for the relatively small increase in feed grain consumption after Russia’s livestock production recovery. First, continued stagnating production prevented significant increase in feed consumption in the bovine sector (beef and milk production). Second, the declining concentrated feed conversion ratio curbed the increase of concentrated feed consumption in the poultry and pig sectors. Increasing livestock production in Russia would cause increased feed grain consumption and contribute to a decline in grain export capacity to some extent. However, considering the above-mentioned changes in Russia’s livestock industry, Russia’s reversion to a grain importing country seems unrealistic.