- 一般社団法人 地域安全学会
- 地域安全学会論文集 (ISSN:13452088)
- vol.27, pp.313-322, 2015-11-13 (Released:2017-08-02)
This study focuses on the scheduling in public real estate management (PREM) and proposes a method to optimize the scheduling using real option approach considering seismic risk. The seismic risk is represented by risk curves using Is value, which is a structural performance index. The risk curve is evaluated with a loss curve derived from a fragility curve, which represents the seismic vulnerability of a building, and a hazard curve, which represents the seismic risk at the site location. The damage due to earthquakes and its occurrence probability are modelled using the Monte Carlo simulation. Through the case study of a retrofitting problem of school facilities, it is confirmed that the proposed method can derive the optimal retrofit schedule with a reduced cost and risk of damage due to earthquakes.