- 著者
-
Kazuaki NISHII
Takafumi MIYASAKA
Yu KOSAKA
Hisashi NAKAMURA
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- 気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.87, no.3, pp.581-588, 2009 (Released:2009-07-08)
- 参考文献数
- 17
- 被引用文献数
-
10
11
A reanalysis dataset is used to establish the relationship between the year-to-year fluctuations in the midwinter storm-track activity over the Far East measured by poleward heat flux associated with subweekly disturbances and the occurrence of the first spring storm with strong southerly winds over Japan (Haru-Ichiban). Our analysis reveals that its early (delayed) occurrence tends to follow the enhanced (suppressed) winter storm-track activity with less (more) apparent minimum in midwinter in the course of the seasonal march. A metric is defined on the basis of the eddy heat flux to measure the reproducibility of the particular seasonal march of the Far East storm-track activity simulated in each of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 climate models under the present climate. Under a particular global warming scenario, ensemble projection based only on the several models that show the highest reproducibility of the storm-track activity measured with the particular metric indicates that the future enhancement is likely in the midwinter storm-track activity associated with the weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon, implying that Haru-Ichiban is likely to occur earlier in the late 21st century than in the 20th century.