著者

溝口 修平

出版者

一般財団法人 日本国際政治学会

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2020, no.201, pp.201_114-201_129, 2020-09-15 (Released:2022-03-31)

参考文献数

42

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In a highly patronalistic society, such as one in post-Soviet Eurasia, a popularly elected president is generally the most dominant political figure in the country. As he or she not only has great formal power prescribed by the constitution but also exercises a high degree of informal power through patron-client relationships, the president can control the political elites by giving rewards and delivering punishments. The more immense power the president has, however, the more uncertain presidential term limits will make the problem of succession. In fact, some presidents in the post-Soviet states managed to extend their stay in office beyond their mandated periods, but others failed to do so. This article explores what causes such a difference.The existing literature adopts a rationalistic approach to this problem: presidents decide whether to extend their tenure or to step down by calculating the costs and benefits to remain in power. These studies argue that presidents will succeed in the extension of their tenure, when they hold great power and resources to co-opt and threaten the elites. There have been some instances of tenure prolongation, however, where power and resources were equally distributed between the president and the opposition leader. In these cases, the rationalistic explanations have limitations.This article argues that presidents would succeed in extending their tenure by justifying their rule beyond their mandated periods and obtaining the public endorsement for it, even when they have difficulty in gaining its approval from the elites. This is because public support would affect the elites’ expectations about who would be the dominant political figure. Thus, referendums are useful tools for presidents who want to evade their term-limits.With the above in mind, this article conducts three case studies. First, in Central Asian states where presidents acquired enormous power just after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the constitutional provisions of presidential term limits have been “gutted” because presidents have felt no constraint to distort the term-limit rules. Second, Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka, making use of his populist rhetoric and holding referendums, was successful in expanding his power and prolonging his tenure. Third, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma also used referendums for the sake of his own interests, but the defections from the ruling elites interrupted him from achieving his goals. As Kuchma lost public support due to the “Cassette Scandal,” the elites changed their expectations about who would be their strongest patron. In sum, in a hybrid regime where a certain degree of political competition exists, the success or failure of a president to extend his or her tenure depends on the endorsement from the public, because it will influence the elites’ behavior.