著者
峰久 和哲
出版者
日本マス・コミュニケーション学会
雑誌
マス・コミュニケーション研究 (ISSN:13411306)
巻号頁・発行日
no.77, pp.39-58, 2010-07-31

Japanese public opinion polls have introduced by GHQ after WWII, and they also have improved the quality much better than before by the cooperation with news organizations and mathematicians. Due to the start of election situation survey by Asahi newspaper at The House of Representatives election in 1958, public opinion functioned much important rolls with the election news by news organizations. For long time, search procedures are mainly examined by visiting each object person by examiners, however, since 1980s, each news organization attempted to use public opinion polls by telephone. After the 21 century, RDD (Random Digit Dialing) with random dialing by computers has spread. It is lower the costs and it is also easier to get survey result promptly, and then, 'Cabinet support rate' reported by more than ten news organizations each month has come and gone. However, due to the spread of cell phones, etc., this search procedure showed some limitations. Together with this fact, public opinion polls are facing huge crisis. About the issues in the society, survey object persons themselves do not form their own opinions and also do not think about the resolution, and they answer promptly to the public opinion polls. And then, the answer was easily induced by the amplification which was introduced during the making of questioners by news organizations. Following these result, we do not have to undervalue public opinion polls. They have important roles as to 'measure' the public opinions and to keep polishing fair examinations.

言及状況

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峰久和哲「世論調査手法の変遷」マスコミュニケーション研究 2010 http://t.co/OoU0wGEKA8
@shingon72 これが参考になるかと。 http://t.co/MRWsGTe9QJ http://t.co/rgOTuF33yh 応対した世帯の有権者数の中から無作為に一名を選ぶみたいな手続きは、今のところ自動音声には難しいと思います。
@toshiromitsuoka 私も教えてもらうまで知りませんでしたが、「追跡法」をとると無作為抽出のために「一番目に年上の人」「二番目に年上の人」「…」と指定することになるそうです。ご参考まで。 http://t.co/24oov5OM (pdf)
勉強になる。1948年の「日本人の読み書き能力調査」が、最も初期のランダムサンプリング調査らしい。http://t.co/cYaGbqeZ
これ、2の世論調査の歴史が面白いな。http://t.co/S2WLdzeO
CiNii 論文 -  新聞の世論調査手法の変遷(<特集>世論と世論調査) http://t.co/cYaGbqeZ #CiNii
.@yunishio pp.49-50 を参照。 http://t.co/ZgKopgR2
RDDの実際についてはこちら。 / 峰久和哲(朝日新聞編集委員)「新聞の世論調査手法の変遷」『マス・コミュニケーション研究』 (77), 39-58, 2010 http://t.co/vNMooQBn (PDF注意)
RDDの実際についてはこちら。 / 峰久和哲(朝日新聞編集委員)「新聞の世論調査手法の変遷」『マス・コミュニケーション研究』 (77), 39-58, 2010 http://t.co/0A4H9dsI (PDF注意)

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