- 著者
-
伊藤 繁
- 出版者
- 日本農業史学会
- 雑誌
- 農業史研究 (ISSN:13475614)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- no.35, pp.1-11, 2001-03
Little attention has been paid for very significant regional population changes, though demographic transformation is necessarily mentioned when we discussed the modern population history in Japan. There were very clear regional fertility differences from pre-modern to modern period in Japan. In the Tokugawa period, the total fertility rate of eastern Japan was the lowest compared with those of other regions. However, the regional differences of fertility had drastically changed to the opposite direction of 'western low and eastern high' in the late Tokugawa period. These evidences are due to the development of historical demography in Japan. According to my estimates of crude birth rates in Meiji-Taisho period and the other estimates of later period by demographers, this regional difference had lasted about 100 years in spite of the starts of modern economic growth after 1885 and the demographic transformation in 1920's. After 1955, the regional differences disappeared in a very short period compared with the time which that continued. The factors influencing the regional differences of fertility in the Meiji-Taisho period were investigated. In high fertility regions, farmland was increasing from the late Tokugata period. These regions also had the favorable conditions of factor endowment, which could have more family members, compared with low fertility regions. This carrying capacity of rural areas developed initially by enlargement of agricultural investments of the late Tokugata period, which was induced by the change of relative prices between agriculture and manufacturing products. The regional differences of female ages at first marriage were corresponding to the fertility differences and, did not significantly changed in the Meiji-Taisho period as a whole. But, in the region specializing sericulture and silk reeling industry, their female ages at first marriage were risen clearly. This had a negative influence on fertility. Female ages at first marriage were also going up in the urbanized areas, which had more job opportunities for females. In regions of low fertility, both weak carrying capacity and urbanization effect worked to the direction to go down fertility.