- 著者
-
吉井 博明
- 出版者
- 東京都立大学都市研究センター
- 雑誌
- 総合都市研究 (ISSN:03863506)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- no.68, pp.165-174, 1999-03
- 被引用文献数
-
2
近年、短期的地震予知の難しさが広く認識されるようになり、その代わりに30年間にわたる地震発生確率を示す手法の開発が進んだ。その成果を試算という形でいくつかの地震に適用した結果が、1998年5月に公表された。この長期確率評価情報は、地震対策の優先度や地域毎の耐震基準の設定、立地規制や保険料率の設定等に有効であるといわれるが、確率のわかりにくさや30年間という長期にわたる発生確率であることなどから、短期的予知に「慣れている」日本では受け入れられにくいのではないか、といった指摘もなされた。本論文では、この長期確率評価情報が公表された東海地震と神縄・国府津―松田断層の地震の2つをとりあげ、これらの地震で大きな被害を被る可能性が高い静岡市と小田原市の一般市民を対象にしたアンケート調査の結果に基づき、長期確率評価の認知と受け止め方、確率評価情報と定性的予知情報との対応関係、火災や交通事故等の他のリスクとの相対比較、火災発生リスクとの比較に基づく地震対策への資金配分の説得力等について明らかにした。Recently, short-term prediction of earthquake are widely recognized to be very difficult in spite of its optimistic perspective in the early stage. Instead of it, long-term forecast with probability of occurrece within 30 years are paid much concern by many seismologists. In May, 1998, headquaters for Earthquake Research Promotion in Prime Minister's Office issued trial calculation of the probabilities to several future big earthquakes induding two earthquakes, Tokai Earthquke and Kan-nawa Kouzu-Matsuda Fault Earthquake. This forecast expects to be effective for determining priority of earthqukae preparedness, setting aseismatic standard, land use regulation, rating of earthquake insurance, and so on. But many defects such as difficulty to understand probability and too long time span are also pointed out by many researchers at the same time, which cause low acceptance of probabilisitic forecast in Japan. In this paper, two future earthquakes, Tokai Earthquke and Kan-nawa Kouzu-MatsudaFault Earthquake, are picked up. And the results of questionnaire survey to residents of Sizuoka City and Odawara City are analized. The qustionnaire includes psycological reactions to probabilisitic Forecast, qualitative understanding of probabilisitic forecast, relative risk evaluation between earthquake and the other risks such as tire, traffic accident, and so on. The results show that residents accept probabilisitic forecast very positively and that they are willing to use the forecast to promote earthquke preparedness in the region. And they agree to compare earthquake risk with tire risk and to put financial priority based on these probabilities of occurrence.