著者

二宮 健史郎

出版者

経済理論学会

雑誌

季刊経済理論 (ISSN:18825184)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.52, no.2, pp.92-94, 2015-07-20 (Released:2017-07-03)

著者

二宮 健史郎

出版者

経済理論学会

雑誌

季刊経済理論 (ISSN:18825184)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.51, no.4, pp.83-95, 2015-01-20 (Released:2017-04-25)

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The recent international monetary crisis, triggered by the 2008 subprime loan crisis in the US, still casts a dark shadow over the world economy. Owing to this upheaval, the financial instability hypothesis proposed by heterodox economist Hyman P. Minsky has received renewed attention. Many mainstream economists admire Minsky's keen insight. The financial instability hypothesis and the formal mathematical models on related topics treat the cumulative debt burden as one of the causes of financial instability. In addition, the Kaleckian and stock-flow consistent models, which explicitly consider interest-bearing debt burden, have, in recent years, been extensively developed. Ninomiya and Tokuda (2011, 2012) introduced the concept of "instability of confidence" and examined the structural change of an economy. In this study, we construct macro-dynamic models that consider interest-bearing debt burdens and the instability of confidence. Furthermore, we examine financial instability and cycles based on the financial instability hypothesis and related mathematical models. This study highlights the following items as significant causes of economic instability: 1)cumulative interest-bearing debt burdens; 2)fragile financial structures; 3)and the instability of confidence. In other words, a robust financial structure plays an important role in addressing a crisis of confidence. This study also suggests that the recent policy of quantitative easing may exert harmful side effects on the economy. This study implies that some new policies and institutional frameworks are needed to construct a robust financial structure. Furthermore, we can prove that there are closed orbits in the dynamic systems by applying Hopf bifurcation theorem. Interest-bearing debt plays important role in terms of financial cycles in this study. The degree of the instability of confidence also has an important role for one of the financial cycles in this study. The financial cycles in this study are quite different from the Kaldorian business cycle.

著者

二宮 健史郎

出版者

経済理論学会

雑誌

季刊経済理論 (ISSN:18825184)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.51, no.4, pp.83-95, 2015-01-20

---

The recent international monetary crisis, triggered by the 2008 subprime loan crisis in the US, still casts a dark shadow over the world economy. Owing to this upheaval, the financial instability hypothesis proposed by heterodox economist Hyman P. Minsky has received renewed attention. Many mainstream economists admire Minsky's keen insight. The financial instability hypothesis and the formal mathematical models on related topics treat the cumulative debt burden as one of the causes of financial instability. In addition, the Kaleckian and stock-flow consistent models, which explicitly consider interest-bearing debt burden, have, in recent years, been extensively developed. Ninomiya and Tokuda (2011, 2012) introduced the concept of "instability of confidence" and examined the structural change of an economy. In this study, we construct macro-dynamic models that consider interest-bearing debt burdens and the instability of confidence. Furthermore, we examine financial instability and cycles based on the financial instability hypothesis and related mathematical models. This study highlights the following items as significant causes of economic instability: 1)cumulative interest-bearing debt burdens; 2)fragile financial structures; 3)and the instability of confidence. In other words, a robust financial structure plays an important role in addressing a crisis of confidence. This study also suggests that the recent policy of quantitative easing may exert harmful side effects on the economy. This study implies that some new policies and institutional frameworks are needed to construct a robust financial structure. Furthermore, we can prove that there are closed orbits in the dynamic systems by applying Hopf bifurcation theorem. Interest-bearing debt plays important role in terms of financial cycles in this study. The degree of the instability of confidence also has an important role for one of the financial cycles in this study. The financial cycles in this study are quite different from the Kaldorian business cycle.

著者

二宮 健史郎

出版者

滋賀大学経済学部

雑誌

滋賀大学経済学部Working Paper

巻号頁・発行日

no.No. 82, pp.1-16, 2005-01 (Released:2010-05-14)

著者

二宮 健史郎 ニノミヤ ケンシロウ Kenshiro Ninomiya

雑誌

立教經濟學研究

巻号頁・発行日

vol.74, no.2, pp.149-169, 2020-10

著者

二宮 健史郎 ニノミヤ ケンシロウ Kenshiro Ninomiya

出版者

立教大学経済学研究会

雑誌

立教経済学研究 (ISSN:00355356)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.74, no.2, pp.149-169, 2020-10

著者

二宮 健史郎 ニノミヤ ケンシロウ Kenshiro Ninomiya

出版者

立教大学経済学研究会

雑誌

立教経済学研究 (ISSN:00355356)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.73, no.2, pp.107-124, 2019-10

著者

二宮 健史郎

雑誌

滋賀大学経済学部CRR Discussion Paper J

巻号頁・発行日

vol.J-70, pp.1-27, 2019-01

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ケインズ経済学を単純化したIS・LM モデルは、スタグフレーションによる景気後退に有効な処方箋を提示できなかったケインズ経済学の退潮に軌を同じくして新古典派経済学、新しい古典派から厳しい批判に晒されることになる。しかしながら、サブプライム問題に端とぉ発した世界的金融危機の発生により、ポスト・ケインズ派に属するH.P. ミンスキーの金融不安定性仮説は注目を浴びる。IS・LM モデルは、ポスト・ケインズ派マクロ動学モデルの基礎となっていることに疑いの余地はない。本稿では、ケインズ派の基本モデルであるIS・LM モデル、2 次元の簡単なポスト・ケインズ派のマクロ動学モデル、その分析手法や数値シミュレーションの方法等を概観する。そして、IS・LM モデルが資本主義経済における内在的な循環や、安定性を論じるポスト・ケインズ派マクロ動学モデルによる分析の基礎として位置づけられ、教育ツールとして必要不可欠なものであることを示す。そして、Hopf の分岐定理による閉軌道の存在証明や数値シミュレーション等、非線形経済動学の分析手法の展開を簡潔に示し、ポスト・ケインズ派マクロ動学分析の手法としての有用性を論じる。

著者

二宮 健史郎

出版者

滋賀大学経済学部リスク研究センター

雑誌

CRR Discussion Paper, Series J

巻号頁・発行日

no.No-67, pp.1-19, 2018-09

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サブプライム問題に端を発した世界的な金融危機の発生により、異端の経済学者であるH.P. ミンスキーの金融不安定性仮説は注目を浴びた。金融不安定性仮説は、多くの非新古典亜経済学者により数理モデルに展開されたが、その定式化は多岐に渡っている。本稿では、金融不安定性仮説の金融構造に焦点を当て、金融構造の変化を考慮したポスト・ケインズ派マクロ動学モデルを概観し、その特徴を整理して今後の研究の方向性を展望する。

著者

二宮 健史郎

出版者

経済理論学会

雑誌

季刊経済理論 (ISSN:18825184)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.46, no.4, pp.25-33, 2010-01-20 (Released:2017-04-25)

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There has been antagonism between neo-classical and Keynesian macroeconomics since the 1980s. Neo-classical economists have criticized the IS-LM model for reasons such as lacking a microeconomic foundation and assuming price stickiness. Neo-classical and Keynesian economics also hold differing theories of interest rate. In short, neo-classical economics adopts the saving-investment theory of interest rate determination, whereas Keynesian macroeconomics adopts the liquidity preference theory. Mankiw (1992) proposed a macroeconomic model in the short and long run. He interpreted the IS equation as the saving-investment theory of interest rate and the LM equation as the quantity theory of money. Romer (2000) and Taylor (2004) presented another macroeconomic model in which a monetary policy rule was introduced in place of the LM equation. Romer (2000) and Taylor (2004) abandoned any differing theory of interest rate between neo-classical and Keynesian economics. On the other hand, Minsky (1982; 1986) who was a heavyweight in post-Keynesian economics proposed the financial instability hypothesis, which emphasized how the complicated financial structure underlying the capitalist economy generates business fluctuations and cycles. Many non-neo-classical economists have developed his idea following Taylor and O'Connell (1989) who proved that an economy would fall into a financial crisis when a decline in expected profit rates aggravated the financial condition of firms and increased households' preference for liquidity. Recent studies by Asada (2006) and Ninomiya and Sanyal (2009) have incorporated the dynamic equation of debt burden of firms into nonlinear economic dynamic models to indicate the financial condition. Following Rose (1969) and Okishio (1986), Ninomiya (2007c) adopted the loanable fund theory and discussed financial instability in an oligopolistic (or short run) economy. This paper examines financial instability in macroeconomics in the short and long run. We adopt the loanable fund theory to integrate neo-classical and Keynesian economics in order to evaluate the post-Keynesians' analysis of financial instability.